Tanner Murray
LF Chicago White Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 469 | .286/.324/.415 | 7 | 4 | 73 | — | .251/.281/.363 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAATB | 572 | .241/.302/.400 | 18 | 5 | 55 | — | .212/.257/.311 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAACWS | 30 | .304/.467/.609 | 2 | 2 | 132 | — | .240/.367/.400 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLBCWS | 33 | .214/.290/.321 | 1 | 0 | 50 | -0.2 | |
| 2027PROJ | 27 | MLBCWS | 75 | .230/.279/.357 | 2 | 1 | 77 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ65% MLB | 28 | MLBCWS | 127 | .229/.279/.355 | 3 | 1 | 77 | -0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ65% MLB | 29 | MLBCWS | 143 | .228/.278/.351 | 3 | 1 | 75 | -0.4 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 123 | 109 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 339 | 410 | 523 | 933 | 183 | 398 | 16 | 7 | 409 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 39 | 33 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 364 | 462 | 788 | 1.249 | 424 | 357 | 8 | 10 | 525 | 140 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 270 | 250 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 50 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 276 | 325 | 412 | 737 | 136 | 321 | 19 | 5 | 327 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 24 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 435 | 278 | 713 | 333 | 17 | 17 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 20 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 200 | 400 | 600 | 200 | 286 | 30 | 0 | 257 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 200 | 176 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 256 | 340 | 438 | 778 | 182 | 305 | 20 | 10 | 346 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 15 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 429 | 467 | 714 | 1.181 | 286 | 500 | 20 | 7 | 512 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 448 | 420 | 122 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 73 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 290 | 330 | 424 | 754 | 133 | 335 | 16 | 5 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 21 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 190 | 238 | 429 | 48 | 267 | 29 | 0 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 572 | 522 | 126 | 29 | 0 | 18 | 39 | 138 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 241 | 302 | 400 | 702 | 159 | 292 | 24 | 7 | 311 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 33 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 321 | 612 | 107 | 238 | 21 | 6 | 265 | 50 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 30 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 304 | 467 | 609 | 1.075 | 304 | 357 | 23 | 20 | 466 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 33 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 321 | 612 | 107 | 238 | 21 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 123 | 112 | 35 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 312 | 369 | 482 | 851 | 170 | 383 | 23 | 5 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 39 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 257 | 333 | 600 | 933 | 343 | 256 | 10 | 5 | 375 | 140 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 270 | 255 | 58 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 65 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 227 | 265 | 337 | 602 | 110 | 277 | 24 | 3 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 20 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 150 | 300 | 450 | 150 | 244 | 35 | 0 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 200 | 184 | 44 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 239 | 300 | 391 | 691 | 152 | 299 | 24 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 15 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 400 | 643 | 1.043 | 286 | 375 | 27 | 7 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 448 | 427 | 107 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 89 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 251 | 281 | 363 | 644 | 112 | 301 | 20 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 572 | 534 | 113 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 157 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 212 | 257 | 311 | 568 | 99 | 275 | 27 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 33 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 258 | 310 | 568 | 103 | 238 | 21 | 3 | 243 | 50 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 30 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 367 | 400 | 767 | 160 | 313 | 27 | 13 | 363 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 162 | 147 | 43 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 293 | 354 | 476 | 830 | 184 | 354 | 20 | 5 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 162 | 142 | 49 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 345 | 422 | 585 | 1.007 | 239 | 388 | 14 | 8 | 437 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 294 | 277 | 62 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 224 | 261 | 325 | 586 | 101 | 279 | 24 | 3 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 294 | 268 | 74 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 54 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 276 | 333 | 403 | 736 | 127 | 322 | 18 | 6 | 327 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 235 | 219 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 285 | 379 | 664 | 146 | 301 | 25 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 235 | 210 | 55 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 49 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 336 | 452 | 789 | 190 | 316 | 21 | 9 | 349 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 469 | 447 | 113 | 28 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 93 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 253 | 283 | 365 | 648 | 112 | 305 | 20 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 469 | 441 | 126 | 30 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 79 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 286 | 324 | 415 | 739 | 129 | 332 | 17 | 4 | 327 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 572 | 534 | 113 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 157 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 212 | 257 | 311 | 568 | 99 | 280 | 27 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 572 | 522 | 126 | 29 | 0 | 18 | 39 | 138 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 241 | 302 | 400 | 702 | 159 | 292 | 24 | 7 | 311 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 63 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 311 | 352 | 663 | 130 | 263 | 24 | 8 | 300 | 89 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 63 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 255 | 377 | 451 | 828 | 196 | 286 | 22 | 13 | 361 | 89 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 162 | 147 | 43 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 293 | 354 | 476 | 830 | 184 | 352 | 20 | 5 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 294 | 278 | 62 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 223 | 261 | 324 | 585 | 101 | 277 | 24 | 3 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 235 | 217 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 285 | 382 | 668 | 147 | 299 | 25 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 469 | 447 | 113 | 28 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 93 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 253 | 283 | 365 | 648 | 112 | 301 | 20 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 572 | 534 | 113 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 157 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 212 | 257 | 311 | 568 | 99 | 275 | 27 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 63 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 311 | 339 | 651 | 125 | 274 | 24 | 8 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 469 | 447 | 113 | 28 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 93 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 253 | 283 | 365 | 648 | 112 | 301 | 20 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 572 | 534 | 113 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 157 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 212 | 257 | 311 | 568 | 99 | 275 | 27 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 63 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 311 | 339 | 651 | 125 | 274 | 24 | 8 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 100% | 180 | 167 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 278 | 354 | 633 | 125 | 301 | 28 | 5 | 282 | 77 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 100% | 75 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 279 | 357 | 636 | 126 | 302 | 28 | 5 | 283 | 77 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 65% | 196 | 182 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 229 | 278 | 352 | 631 | 124 | 300 | 28 | 5 | 281 | 77 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 65% | 220 | 204 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 278 | 349 | 626 | 122 | 298 | 28 | 5 | 280 | 75 | -6 | -0 | -2 | -2 | +5 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 65% | 127 | 118 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 279 | 355 | 634 | 125 | 300 | 28 | 6 | 283 | 77 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 65% | 143 | 132 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 278 | 351 | 630 | 124 | 299 | 28 | 6 | 281 | 75 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +3 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 303 | 278 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 83 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 223 | 278 | 342 | 619 | 119 | 288 | 27 | 6 | 280 | 73 | -9 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +7 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 133 | 26 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 178 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 223 | 277 | 342 | 620 | 119 | 289 | 27 | 6 | 280 | 73 | -19 | +1 | -5 | -8 | +14 | -1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2286 | 2134 | 498 | 118 | 7 | 40 | 102 | 565 | 32 | 25 | 14 | 233 | 279 | 351 | 630 | 118 | 297 | 25 | 4 | 277 | 73 | -15 | +0 | -3 | -6 | +11 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 607 | 142 | 34 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 161 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 234 | 279 | 351 | 630 | 117 | 298 | 25 | 4 | 277 | 73 | -19 | +0 | -4 | -7 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 30 PAwOBA .454 → .363 (−91)K% 23.3% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 13.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 23.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 5.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 8.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .454 → .363; ISO .304 → .226; BABIP .357 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAADurham Bulls · 572 PAwOBA .304 → .250 (−55)K% 24.1% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.13% | ÷1.057 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.57% | ÷0.956 | ×0.930 | ×0.998 | ×1.018 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×1.018 | 6.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.69% | ÷1.380 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.42% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .304 → .250; ISO .159 → .103; BABIP .292 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 448 PAwOBA .326 → .280 (−47)K% 16.3% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.29% | ÷0.999 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.69% | ÷1.022 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 3.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.92% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×0.998 | 21.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.36% | ÷0.972 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×0.998 | 7.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.115 | ×0.880 | ×0.986 | ×0.998 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷0.958 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 123, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .326 → .280; ISO .133 → .115; BABIP .335 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 200 PAwOBA .337 → .294 (−42)K% 20.0% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.38% | ÷0.949 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 18.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.56% | ÷1.030 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 8.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.68% | ÷1.087 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.74% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 90, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .337 → .294; ISO .182 → .152; BABIP .305 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAADurham Bulls · 20 PAwOBA .249 → .195 (−54)K% 30.0% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 24.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .249 → .195; ISO .200 → .157; BABIP .286 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Rays · 15 PAwOBA .497 → .348 (−149)K% 20.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.948 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 4.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 28.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 6.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.911 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 7.43% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .497 → .348; ISO .286 → .204; BABIP .500 → .375. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 270 PAwOBA .320 → .257 (−63)K% 18.5% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.81% | ÷1.038 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 2.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.50% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 21.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 4.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.58% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .320 → .257; ISO .136 → .110; BABIP .321 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 123 PAwOBA .401 → .350 (−51)K% 16.3% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.26% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.32% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.25% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.72% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | — | 24.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.48% | ÷0.871 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | — | 13.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | — | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.75% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 74, 3B 130, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .401 → .350; ISO .183 → .159; BABIP .398 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .