Kelena Sauer — OGILVIE

Kelena Sauer P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%23.3%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	12	0	14	62	19	7	0	0%	1.2	22.7%	13.3%	9.4%	0.0%	3.86	2.87	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	12	0	14	62	19	7	0	0%	1.2	22.7%	13.3%	9.4%	0.0%	3.86	2.87	—
2023	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	12	0	14	62	19	7	0	0%	1.2	30.6%	11.3%	19.4%	0.0%	3.86	1.89	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	3	2	4	21	3	0	0	67%	1.4	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	4.15	1.89	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	3	2	4	21	3	0	0	67%	1.4	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	4.15	1.89	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	3	2	4	21	3	0	0	67%	1.4	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	4.15	1.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	42	0	58	267	64	22	9	0%	1.4	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	4.1%	5.90	4.89	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	42	0	58	267	64	22	9	0%	1.4	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	4.1%	5.90	4.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	TOR	11	0	17	74	24	7	1	0%	1.6	32.4%	9.5%	23.0%	1.4%	2.60	2.30	—
2026	23	AA RAW	TOR	31	0	41	193	40	15	8	0%	1.3	20.7%	7.8%	13.0%	4.1%	7.30	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	246	59	23	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.32	4.27	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	56	0	59	249	60	23	7	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.25	4.20	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	56	0	59	249	61	23	7	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	2.9%	4.21	4.18	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	245	60	22	7	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.22	4.22	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	25	0	26	110	26	10	3	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.32	4.27	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	37	0	39	165	40	15	5	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	2.9%	4.25	4.20	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	45	0	47	198	48	18	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.1%	15.3%	2.9%	4.21	4.18	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	48	0	50	211	51	19	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.22	4.22	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	0	161	681	165	62	20	0%	1.0	24.3%	9.1%	15.1%	3.0%	4.24	3.83	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	77	25	0%	1.1	24.3%	9.1%	15.1%	3.0%	4.24	3.83	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		57	2	76	350	68	33	11	4%	1.3	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.1%	5.42	4.35	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	5	200	917	178	86	28	4%	1.3	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.1%	5.42	4.35	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelena Sauer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	23.3%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.22	24.2%	15.0%	176	-0.18	—	—	—
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	91
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	88
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	86
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	86
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	85
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	85
Jake Bray R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.1%	7.7%	1.8%	.245	4.56	21.4%	10.8%	158	+1.28	2.51	198	84
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	84
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	84
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	84
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	84
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	84
Joey Stock R 2021 · 3.34 FIP	23	SU	3.34	20.4%	9.8%	1.3%	.275	5.04	22.5%	6.8%	95	+1.70	3.34	121	84
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	84
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	48	24.2%	9.2%	1.15	4.26
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81