Aaron Combs — OGILVIE

Aaron Combs P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%20.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	6	0	8	33	13	4	0	0%	1.3	39.4%	12.1%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.31	—
2024	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	6	0	8	33	13	4	0	0%	1.3	39.4%	12.1%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.31	—
2024	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	6	0	8	33	13	4	0	0%	1.3	39.4%	12.1%	27.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.27	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	33	156	37	15	7	82%	3.0	18.9%	11.4%	7.4%	5.5%	6.21	6.00	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	33	156	37	15	7	82%	3.0	18.9%	11.4%	7.4%	5.5%	6.21	6.00	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	33	156	37	15	7	82%	3.0	23.7%	9.6%	14.1%	4.5%	6.21	4.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	36	0	41	183	50	19	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	4.2%	4.65	5.08	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	36	0	41	183	50	19	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	4.2%	4.65	5.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	PHI	3	0	3	12	5	1	0	0%	1.1	41.7%	8.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.64	—
2026	24	AA RAW	PHI	33	0	37	171	45	18	6	0%	1.1	26.3%	10.5%	15.8%	3.5%	5.06	4.14	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PHI	38	0	40	170	36	17	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	3.2%	4.81	4.76	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	PHI	17	0	18	76	16	8	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	3.2%	4.81	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	16	8	2	0%	1.0	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	3.2%	4.81	4.38	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	91	23	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	3.2%	4.81	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		53	9	82	372	81	43	16	17%	1.5	21.9%	11.6%	10.3%	4.4%	4.85	5.13	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	22	200	911	199	105	40	17%	1.5	21.9%	11.6%	10.3%	4.4%	4.85	5.13	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Combs (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	20.5%	10.9%	3.3%	—	4.76	21.2%	11.0%	40	-0.18	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Justin Evans R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	19.2%	11.2%	4.5%	.333	3.89	22.0%	5.5%	65	-1.49	3.63	105	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Blake Goldsberry R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.267	4.51	23.6%	13.4%	75	+0.42	3.43	117	84
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	84
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	84
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	83
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	82
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	82
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	82
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	82
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	21.0%	10.4%	1.26	4.85
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47