Luke Savage — OGILVIE

Luke Savage P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%18.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	14	4	2	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	6.00	2.50	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	14	4	2	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	6.00	2.50	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	14	4	2	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	6.00	2.43	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	47	207	43	22	2	0%	1.6	15.7%	12.5%	3.2%	1.3%	3.80	4.07	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	47	207	43	22	2	0%	1.6	15.7%	12.5%	3.2%	1.3%	3.80	4.07	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	47	207	43	22	2	0%	1.6	20.8%	10.6%	10.1%	1.0%	3.80	3.23	—
2025	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	26	0	36	144	33	15	1	0%	1.4	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	0.9%	1.49	3.70	—
2025	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	26	0	36	144	33	15	1	0%	1.4	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	0.9%	1.49	3.70	—
2025	23	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	26	0	36	144	33	15	1	0%	1.4	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	0.7%	1.49	2.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	39	0	58	256	49	32	6	0%	1.5	14.7%	14.4%	0.4%	2.9%	5.46	5.28	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	39	0	58	256	49	32	6	0%	1.5	14.7%	14.4%	0.4%	2.9%	5.46	5.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TEX	39	0	58	256	49	32	6	0%	1.5	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	2.3%	5.46	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	54	0	57	242	48	26	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.9%	9.0%	2.8%	4.76	4.70	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	54	0	57	242	50	26	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.67	4.63	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	24	0	25	106	21	12	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.9%	9.0%	2.8%	4.76	4.70	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	36	0	38	160	33	17	4	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.67	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	264	54	29	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	2.8%	4.71	4.28	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	93	22	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	2.8%	4.71	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		98	0	144	621	99	82	11	0%	1.5	15.9%	13.3%	2.6%	1.8%	3.93	4.45	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	861	137	114	16	0%	1.5	15.9%	13.3%	2.6%	1.8%	3.93	4.45	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Savage (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	18.8%	11.9%	2.8%	—	4.67	20.3%	9.4%	114	-0.25	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	87
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	87
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	87
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	86
Stephen Perakslis R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	14.6%	9.9%	2.6%	.254	3.99	16.9%	9.9%	190	-0.55	3.07	211	86
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	86
Jackson Rees R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	16.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.354	1.90	28.2%	20.8%	62	-2.57	1.90	103	86
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	86
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	85
Josh Uhen R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.303	4.02	15.6%	1.2%	82	-0.07	3.17	185	85
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	20.0%	11.0%	1.07	4.75
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99