Javen Coleman

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #807

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	38	54	3.00	1.95	38.1%	10.3%	—	K 28.7% · BB 12.1% · FIP 2.95
2026	24	MIX4 levels	33	40	4.50	2.73	33.9%	7.0%	—	K 25.7% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.87
2027PROJ	25	MLBTOR	57	60	4.19	4.19	26.3%	10.1%	0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTOR	25	26	4.19	4.18	26.2%	9.9%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTOR	35	37	4.22	4.23	26.0%	10.0%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command45FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsPeyton Alford (age 25) · Carson Skipper (age 24) · Greg Nappo (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%26.3%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%16.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—45

CMD3545

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	54	223	85	23	3	0%	1.4	28.7%	12.1%	16.7%	1.4%	3.00	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	54	223	85	23	3	0%	1.4	28.7%	12.1%	16.7%	1.4%	3.00	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	54	223	85	23	3	0%	1.4	38.1%	10.3%	27.8%	1.3%	3.00	1.95	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	33	0	40	171	58	12	5	0%	1.2	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	3.6%	4.50	3.87	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	33	0	40	171	58	12	5	0%	1.2	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	3.6%	4.50	3.87	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	33	0	40	171	58	12	5	0%	1.2	33.9%	7.0%	26.9%	2.9%	4.50	2.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TOR	57	0	60	253	67	25	8	0%	1.1	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	57	0	60	251	66	25	8	0%	1.0	26.2%	9.9%	16.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.18	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	56	0	59	247	64	25	8	0%	1.0	26.0%	10.0%	16.1%	3.1%	4.22	4.23	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	25	0	26	110	29	11	3	0%	1.0	26.2%	9.9%	16.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.18	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	35	0	37	156	41	16	5	0%	1.1	26.0%	10.0%	16.1%	3.1%	4.22	4.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	70	27	8	0%	1.1	26.1%	9.9%	16.1%	3.0%	4.21	3.83	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	221	85	25	0%	1.1	26.1%	9.9%	16.1%	3.0%	4.21	3.83	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		71	0	94	394	108	40	9	0%	1.3	27.4%	10.1%	17.3%	2.3%	3.64	3.35	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	838	230	85	20	0%	1.3	27.4%	10.1%	17.3%	2.3%	3.64	3.35	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Javen Coleman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	26.3%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.20	26.1%	16.2%	118	+0.01	—	—	—
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.09	24.5%	13.4%	175	+0.40	3.48	291	85
Carson Skipper L 2024 · 3.12 FIP	24	SU	3.12	25.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.322	4.23	18.2%	9.2%	77	+1.11	3.02	186	85
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	85
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	85
Kevin Siegrist L 2014 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	26.4%	11.4%	3.8%	.329	3.61	27.2%	16.8%	176	-0.81	2.13	246	83
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	83
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	82
John Grabow L 2004 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.4%	7.3%	2.8%	.378	3.93	19.9%	11.0%	173	+0.25	3.66	471	81
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	81
Michael Kirkman L 2012 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	25.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.207	3.82	21.0%	6.4%	54	-0.24	2.79	171	81
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	81
Locke St. John L 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	24.7%	10.1%	2.8%	.281	3.51	25.9%	15.4%	109	-0.33	3.07	389	81
Tim Mayza L 2017 · 3.55 FIP	25	SU	3.55	24.5%	8.4%	2.7%	.339	3.54	26.0%	16.7%	113	-0.01	2.24	584	81
B.J. Ryan L 2001 · 3.96 FIP	25	SU	3.96	22.8%	11.0%	2.5%	.272	2.67	29.1%	19.3%	195	-1.29	1.77	532	81
Jakob Hernandez L 2021 · 3.31 FIP	25	SU	3.31	25.4%	9.2%	2.2%	.331	4.85	28.2%	17.8%	72	+1.54	2.99	266	81
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	81
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	81
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	80
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	80
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	26.2%	10.0%	1.17	4.20
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*