Bryce Eblin

SS Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 L/R 5'11" / 185 lbs A+ HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2187ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	A/ROKCWS	46	.361/.489/.444	1	1	108	—	.311/.421/.387
2026	24	A+/ACWS	189	.210/.333/.344	3	4	40	—	.165/.263/.274
2027PROJMLE	25	MLBCWS	239	.209/.282/.314	4	5	70	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	26	MLBCWS	39	.212/.285/.324	1	1	72	0.0
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBCWS	71	.213/.286/.326	1	2	73	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Whiff%77

Z-Con%75

Speed63

K%47

BB%44

Chase%44

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsShayne Fontana (age 25) · Patrick Dorrian (age 25) · Drew Campbell (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 87 proj PA

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .280 / .311

PA87

HR1

K%29

BB%7

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	24	19	4	0	0	0	1	2	3	1	1	211	348	211	558		222	8	4	272	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	22	17	9	0	0	1	4	3	1	0	1	529	636	706	1.342	176	615	14	18	584	175	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	157	129	26	6	1	3	17	39	8	3	2	202	331	333	665	132	258	25	11	304	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	32	28	7	4	0	0	0	14	4	1	1	250	344	393	737	143	500	44	0	337	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	24	19	4	0	0	0	1	3	3	1	1	211	348	211	558		198	12	4	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	22	19	8	0	0	1	2	4	1	0	1	421	500	579	1.079	158	479	18	9	427	175	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	157	136	23	5	1	3	10	51	8	3	2	169	266	287	553	118	220	32	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	32	28	4	2	0	0	0	19	4	1	1	143	250	214	464	71	421	59	0	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	46	38	11	0	0	1	3	7	4	1	2	289	400	368	768	79	323	15	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	46	36	13	0	0	1	5	5	4	1	2	361	489	444	933	83	387	11	11	421	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	189	164	27	7	1	3	10	70	12	4	3	165	263	274	538	110	258	37	5	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	189	157	33	10	1	3	17	53	12	4	3	210	333	344	677	134	291	28	9	310	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	46	39	11	0	0	1	3	7	4	1	2	282	400	359	759	77	332	15	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	189	165	27	7	1	3	10	70	12	4	3	164	263	273	536	109	254	37	5	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	46	39	11	0	0	1	3	7	4	1	2	282	400	359	759	77	332	15	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	189	165	27	7	1	3	10	70	12	4	3	164	263	273	536	109	254	37	5	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	0%	239	216	44	8	1	4	16	69	5	5	2	209	282	314	595	104	287	29	7	271	70	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	30%	128	115	25	5	1	2	9	37	3	3	1	212	284	322	606	110	287	29	7	275	72	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	42%	170	152	32	6	1	3	12	49	4	4	1	212	285	324	609	111	287	29	7	276	73	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	48%	211	190	41	8	1	4	15	60	4	5	2	212	285	324	609	111	286	28	7	276	73	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	30%	39	35	7	1	0	1	3	11	1	1	0	212	285	324	609	112	288	28	8	276	72	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	42%	71	64	13	3	0	1	5	20	2	2	1	213	286	326	612	113	288	28	7	277	73	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	48%	101	91	20	4	1	2	7	29	2	2	1	213	286	326	612	113	287	29	7	277	73	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	211	190	40	8	1	4	15	60	5	5	2	211	286	326	612	116	283	28	7	277	67	-7	+0	-0	+2	+5	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	123	25	3	12	46	185	15	15	6	210	284	325	609	115	284	28	7	277	67	-21	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	831	738	152	29	5	14	55	248	29	19	10	206	287	316	603	110	286	30	7	267	67	-20	+1	-1	+6	+13	-0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	119	23	4	11	43	194	23	15	8	206	288	317	605	111	286	30	7	267	67	-21	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 157 PAwOBA .301 → .232 (−68)K% 24.8% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.84%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	32.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.83%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.978	6.35%
HBP% /PA	5.10%	—	×0.770	—	×0.978	3.84%
Singles /BIP	17.78%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.035	×0.978	15.65%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.035	×0.978	5.26%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.035	×0.978	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.978	2.87%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .301 → .232; ISO .132 → .110; BABIP .258 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 32 PAwOBA .328 → .209 (−119)K% 43.8% → 59.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	43.75%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	59.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.970	0.00%
HBP% /PA	12.50%	—	×0.780	—	×0.970	9.46%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.970	19.12%
Doubles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.970	23.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.970	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.970	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .328 → .209; ISO .143 → .082; BABIP .500 → .421. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 24 PAwOBA .277 → .238 (−39)K% 8.3% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.33%	÷1.009	×1.360	—	—	11.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.17%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.980	2.74%
HBP% /PA	12.50%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	9.55%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.018	×0.920	—	×0.980	20.85%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.992	×0.830	—	×0.980	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.091	×0.910	—	×0.980	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.853	×0.800	—	×0.980	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 118, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .277 → .238; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .222 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL White Sox · 22 PAwOBA .569 → .427 (−143)K% 13.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.64%	÷0.998	×1.440	—	—	19.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷0.994	×0.620	—	×0.955	10.83%
HBP% /PA	4.55%	—	×0.720	—	×0.955	3.13%
Singles /BIP	57.14%	÷0.980	×0.820	—	×0.955	45.64%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.039	×0.720	—	×0.955	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×0.955	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.128	×0.780	—	×0.955	4.72%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .569 → .427; ISO .176 → .121; BABIP .615 → .479. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	2.6	1,710	24	13	217*	284*	324*	+11	+37	2.1	2.9
/162	664	9	5	+4.2	+14.4	0.8	pk7: 4
#3Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
/162	664	3	3	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	211	4	5	213	283	325	+2	+3	0.2	0.2
/162	664	12	15	+7.1	+9.5	0.5	pk7: 0
#5David Howard'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	11	23	220*	280*	301*	+10	+23	-1.6	-0.8
/162	664	4	9	+3.7	+8.5	-0.6	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryce Eblin (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	207/280/311	103	287	1	2	29%	7%	70	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	195/273/300	105	283	8	8	32%	9%	63	-1.3	215/297/319	104	298	10	14	29%	8%	78	-0.3	219/303/314	95	294	10	19	27%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Patrick Dorrian 2021 · A	25	41→38	42→50	51→45	40	203/257/316	113	290	9	7	32%	6%	61	-1.5	197/264/337	140	297	16	6	37%	8%	69	-0.9	186/256/334	148	275	18	5	38%	8%	62	-1.0
✕Drew Campbell 2023 · A	25	46	43→50	49→50	39	227/267/332	106	301	11	12	28%	5%	68	-1.0	226/270/347	121	306	13	13	30%	4%	73	-0.6	222/261/360	139	293	18	15	30%	3%	72	-0.4
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	39→38	41→40	48→50	41	192/258/288	96	263	8	14	29%	6%	55	-1.9	207/273/319	112	287	10	14	30%	7%	68	-1.0	180/253/308	127	261	11	20	33%	6%	55	-0.4
✕J.E. Cruz 2006 · A	25	38→47	42→45	52→45	43	191/259/289	98	263	10	12	30%	7%	56	-1.9	208/278/306	98	280	7	8	26%	8%	67	-1.1	205/279/304	99	274	6	6	25%	8%	65	-0.8
✕Jacob Rhinesmith 2021 · A	25	42	42→45	50	46	208/268/315	106	256	9	11	22%	7%	65	-1.2	209/273/312	103	274	9	9	25%	7%	66	-1.1	207/276/325	118	263	10	8	24%	8%	68	-0.8
✕Mitchell Tolman 2019 · A	25	45→47	40→45	46→50	47	212/290/301	89	293	7	10	28%	9%	70	-0.8	216/284/315	99	301	8	9	29%	7%	71	-0.8	218/288/333	115	286	10	8	26%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Matt Higgins 2024 · A	25	44→42	45	48→50	41	217/284/339	122	305	12	8	32%	7%	77	-0.3	214/282/308	94	303	9	8	30%	8%	69	-0.9	207/280/278	72	292	7	8	29%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Parker Bates 2023 · A	25	38	44→50	50	42	195/261/317	122	265	12	12	30%	7%	63	-1.3	193/254/274	81	266	6	12	28%	7%	50	-2.3	169/229/213	44	232	3	12	27%	6%	25	-2.2
✕Jacob Wetzel 2024 · A	24	38→34	41→45	50	44	185/262/277	92	271	8	12	33%	8%	55	-2.0	199/275/320	121	288	9	14	31%	9%	69	-0.9	196/279/346	150	275	11	17	30%	10%	75	-0.3
✕LJ Talley 2022 · AA	25	42→48	43→45	48→50	45	211/268/322	111	265	11	6	25%	7%	67	-1.1	223/285/335	112	283	11	11	24%	7%	76	-0.4	220/286/328	108	277	11	13	24%	8%	72	-0.4
✕Matt Fraizer 2023 · AA	25	43→50	44→45	54→55	41	214/266/335	121	288	11	14	29%	6%	69	-0.9	217/267/316	99	297	9	19	28%	6%	64	-1.3	225/277/340	115	317	9	22	30%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Logan Driscoll 2023 · A	25	41→46	45	48→40	41	205/269/325	120	285	13	6	32%	7%	68	-1.0	226/281/343	117	304	11	5	28%	6%	76	-0.4	230/288/345	115	310	11	3	28%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	40→30	40→45	49→60	38	193/260/279	86	281	7	12	32%	5%	55	-2.0	179/254/280	101	276	9	16	36%	8%	53	-2.1	178/268/298	120	261	12	28	34%	10%	60	-0.9
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	37	42→40	49→50	48	187/274/289	103	259	10	13	30%	10%	63	-1.4	200/295/298	98	281	9	11	29%	10%	72	-0.7	182/296/265	82	256	7	11	28%	12%	63	-0.8
✕Grant Witherspoon 2021 · A	24	39→46	40→50	52→50	40	194/244/287	93	272	8	13	31%	6%	49	-2.4	217/271/362	145	296	17	13	31%	7%	77	-0.3	212/271/360	149	286	18	14	32%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Kaden Polcovich 2024 · AA	25	39→41	45	54→55	47	198/281/321	123	266	12	16	29%	9%	72	-0.7	205/287/313	108	289	9	19	30%	8%	72	-0.7	185/278/277	92	268	6	27	30%	9%	59	-0.8
✕Sean Jamieson 2014 · A	25	43→44	43→45	50	44	210/276/328	118	277	10	12	27%	7%	71	-0.8	229/287/331	102	310	8	9	27%	6%	76	-0.4	232/290/322	90	317	6	7	27%	6%	71	-0.4
✕Morgan McCullough 2023 · AA	25	44	43→45	46→50	46	212/294/326	114	295	10	10	30%	8%	78	-0.3	203/284/321	118	290	11	14	31%	9%	73	-0.6	183/271/304	121	262	11	17	32%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Jake Ring 2019 · A	24	40→43	42→45	49→50	40	198/256/304	105	286	9	10	33%	7%	58	-1.7	192/254/297	105	300	10	7	37%	7%	56	-1.9	140/204/245	105	228	13	2	43%	6%	23	-1.4

Bryce Eblin

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps