Lebarron Johnson Jr.

P Spokane Indians

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	16	16	79	4.12	3.81	23.3%	14.7%	—	K 17.6% · BB 17.1% · FIP 4.81
2026	24	A+COL	17	13	65	6.65	4.82	19.1%	9.2%	—	K 14.7% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.78
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	12	12	70	5.89	5.89	15.0%	15.0%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCOL	5	5	30	5.70	5.67	16.4%	14.4%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCOL	7	7	44	5.61	5.61	17.0%	14.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJoel Hanrahan (age 25) · Justin Miller (age 24) · Ryan Jensen (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.89

FIP5.89

K%15.0%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%0.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	79	347	81	51	5	100%	4.9	17.6%	17.1%	0.5%	1.9%	4.12	4.81	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	79	347	81	51	5	100%	4.9	17.6%	17.1%	0.5%	1.9%	4.12	4.81	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	79	347	81	51	5	100%	4.9	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	1.4%	4.12	3.81	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	17	13	65	293	56	27	11	76%	3.8	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	4.7%	6.65	5.78	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	17	13	65	293	56	27	11	76%	3.8	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	4.7%	6.65	5.78	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	17	13	65	293	56	27	11	76%	3.8	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.8%	6.65	4.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	12	12	70	296	44	44	10	100%	5.8	15.0%	15.0%	0.0%	3.2%	5.89	5.89	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	71	299	49	43	10	100%	5.9	16.4%	14.4%	2.0%	3.2%	5.70	5.67	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	70	294	50	41	10	100%	5.8	17.0%	14.1%	2.9%	3.2%	5.61	5.61	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	68	285	49	40	10	100%	6.1	17.2%	14.0%	3.2%	3.3%	5.60	5.63	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	65	273	47	38	9	100%	5.9	17.1%	14.1%	3.0%	3.5%	5.67	5.73	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	5	5	30	127	21	18	4	100%	6.0	16.4%	14.4%	2.0%	3.2%	5.70	5.67	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	44	186	31	26	6	100%	6.3	17.0%	14.1%	2.9%	3.2%	5.61	5.61	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	51	215	37	30	7	100%	6.4	17.2%	14.0%	3.2%	3.3%	5.60	5.63	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	53	224	38	32	8	100%	5.9	17.1%	14.1%	3.0%	3.5%	5.67	5.73	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	178	750	127	106	25	100%	5.9	17.0%	14.1%	2.8%	3.3%	5.64	5.28	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	143	119	28	100%	6.0	17.0%	14.1%	2.8%	3.3%	5.64	5.28	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		33	29	144	640	104	90	20	88%	4.4	16.3%	14.1%	2.1%	3.2%	5.26	5.25	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	891	145	126	28	88%	4.4	16.3%	14.1%	2.1%	3.2%	5.26	5.25	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lebarron Johnson Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.89	15.0%	15.0%	3.2%	—	5.64	16.8%	2.7%	208	-0.25	—	—	—
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	88
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	84
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	84
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	84
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	82
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	82
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	81
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	81
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	80
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	80
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	79
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	79
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	78
Grant Judkins R 2022 · 6.22 FIP	24	SP	6.22	15.8%	13.4%	5.0%	.306	5.53	15.7%	6.6%	207	-0.69	5.13	322	78
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	77
Brian Bannister R 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP-	4.93	11.1%	11.7%	2.3%	.234	4.32	13.3%	6.6%	502	-0.61	3.97	667	77
Johnny Hellweg R 2013 · 5.63 FIP	24	SP	5.63	5.6%	16.0%	1.8%	.298	5.82	9.6%	-8.1%	82	+0.19	2.98	140	77
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	69	16.5%	14.3%	1.27	5.70
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*