Chandler Marsh

P Frederick Keys

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 245 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #1034

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ANYM	1	1	1	0.00	9.10	20.0%	40.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 40.0% · FIP 6.48
2025	22	MIX2 levels	42	0	52	2.42	2.08	30.6%	9.7%	—	K 21.9% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.18
2026	23	A+BAL	40	0	49	4.44	4.27	35.3%	11.4%	—	K 27.2% · BB 13.2% · FIP 5.88
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	86	0	90	4.78	4.78	26.8%	13.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBAL	37	0	39	4.64	4.59	26.7%	12.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBAL	58	0	61	4.57	4.54	26.6%	12.1%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control40Command41FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsAaron Crow (age 24) · Ben Hecht (age 24) · Steven Wilson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%26.8%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD3540

K†6065

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	5	1	2	0	100%	0.7	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	5	1	2	0	100%	0.7	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2024	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	1	1	1	5	1	2	0	100%	0.7	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	9.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	52	206	63	20	1	0%	1.2	21.9%	12.7%	9.2%	0.6%	2.42	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	52	206	63	20	1	0%	1.2	21.9%	12.7%	9.2%	0.6%	2.42	3.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	52	206	63	20	1	0%	1.2	30.6%	9.7%	20.9%	0.5%	2.42	2.08	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	40	0	49	201	71	23	10	0%	1.2	27.2%	13.2%	14.0%	6.2%	4.44	5.88	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	40	0	49	201	71	23	10	0%	1.2	27.2%	13.2%	14.0%	6.2%	4.44	5.88	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	40	0	49	201	71	23	10	0%	1.2	35.3%	11.4%	23.9%	5.0%	4.44	4.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	86	0	90	380	102	53	13	0%	1.0	26.8%	13.8%	13.0%	3.3%	4.78	4.78	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	87	0	91	385	103	48	13	0%	1.0	26.7%	12.5%	14.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.59	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	87	0	91	385	102	46	12	0%	1.0	26.6%	12.1%	14.5%	3.2%	4.57	4.54	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	85	0	90	379	100	45	12	0%	1.1	26.3%	11.9%	14.4%	3.3%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	83	0	87	367	96	44	12	0%	1.0	26.1%	12.0%	14.1%	3.4%	4.61	4.64	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	351	91	43	12	0%	1.1	25.9%	12.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.71	4.77	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	74	0	78	330	91	39	12	0%	1.1	27.5%	11.7%	15.8%	3.7%	4.69	4.68	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	37	0	39	165	44	21	5	0%	1.1	26.7%	12.5%	14.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.59	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	58	0	61	258	68	31	8	0%	1.1	26.6%	12.1%	14.5%	3.2%	4.57	4.54	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	66	0	69	291	77	35	10	0%	1.0	26.3%	11.9%	14.4%	3.3%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	73	308	80	37	10	0%	1.0	26.1%	12.0%	14.1%	3.4%	4.61	4.64	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	73	308	80	38	11	0%	1.0	25.9%	12.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.71	4.77	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	67	0	70	296	81	35	11	0%	1.0	27.5%	11.7%	15.8%	3.7%	4.69	4.68	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		367	0	385	1626	431	195	55	0%	1.0	26.5%	12.0%	14.5%	3.4%	4.63	4.26	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	224	101	29	0%	1.1	26.5%	12.0%	14.5%	3.4%	4.63	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		83	1	101	412	101	55	14	1%	1.2	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	3.3%	3.38	4.54	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		164	2	200	813	199	108	27	1%	1.2	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	3.3%	3.38	4.54	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chandler Marsh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	26.8%	13.8%	3.3%	—	4.56	26.5%	14.4%	272	-0.22	—	—	—
Aaron Crow R 2011 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.4%	10.9%	3.2%	.287	4.16	20.1%	11.4%	172	-0.04	2.88	234	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	331	84
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	82
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	82
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	82
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	82
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.63	22.2%	11.8%	86	-0.01	4.42	152	82
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	81
Grant Gavin R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	25.6%	11.4%	3.5%	.289	4.40	23.5%	11.2%	130	+0.11	2.14	376	81
Chris Mauloni R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	23	SU	4.82	25.6%	11.5%	4.4%	.333	5.67	17.6%	1.4%	71	+0.85	4.82	129	81
Andre Granillo R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	24.5%	13.7%	2.7%	.228	4.18	22.3%	13.4%	120	-0.04	3.06	321	80
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	80
Peter Tago R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.21	3.26	207	80
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.50	21.7%	10.0%	142	+0.88	3.62	311	80
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	80
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	80
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	26.5%	12.3%	1.31	4.65
Dick Littlefield ('50-'58, -1 WAR*)	3.8	109	25.7%*	11.2%*	1.32*	4.96*
Slim Love ('13-'20, 3 WAR*)	2.6	129	26.7%*	11.5%*	1.24*	4.50*
Lou North ('13-'24, -2 WAR*)	2.3	93	26.2%*	12.2%*	1.38*	5.20*
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14