Victor Lizarraga

P San Antonio Missions

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	AASD	21	21	96	4.03	3.37	25.1%	10.3%	—	K 20.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.18
2025	21	MIX2 levels	27	25	101	5.77	4.34	19.9%	13.0%	—	K 16.8% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.13
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	20	90	7.57	5.55	17.4%	12.6%	—	K 13.4% · BB 14.3% · FIP 6.11
2027PROJ	23	MLBSD	12	12	63	6.11	6.11	14.1%	15.7%	-0.8
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBSD	7	7	41	5.78	5.69	16.0%	13.9%	-0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBSD	11	11	63	5.53	5.44	17.1%	12.8%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control35Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsReid Schaller (age 22) · Joel Hanrahan (age 25) · Hayden Merda (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.11

FIP6.11

K%14.1%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%-1.6%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	11	11	30	130	35	15	5	100%	2.7	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	5.4%	5.10	6.34	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	11	11	30	130	35	15	5	100%	2.7	26.9%	11.5%	15.4%	3.8%	5.10	4.43	—
2022	18	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	19	94	408	95	34	5	95%	4.7	17.2%	9.8%	7.4%	1.7%	3.43	3.82	—
2022	18	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	19	94	408	95	34	5	95%	4.7	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	1.2%	3.43	2.86	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	95	406	78	34	5	100%	4.5	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	1.8%	4.09	4.07	—
2023	19	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	21	21	95	406	78	34	5	100%	4.5	19.2%	8.4%	10.8%	1.2%	4.09	3.22	—
2024	20	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	100%	4.6	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.5%	4.03	4.18	—
2024	20	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	100%	4.6	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.5%	4.03	4.18	—
2024	20	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	21	21	96	407	102	42	8	100%	4.6	25.1%	10.3%	14.7%	2.0%	4.03	3.37	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	93%	3.8	16.8%	14.2%	2.6%	3.0%	5.77	5.13	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	93%	3.8	16.8%	14.2%	2.6%	3.0%	5.77	5.13	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	101	462	92	60	10	93%	3.8	19.9%	13.0%	6.9%	2.2%	5.77	4.34	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	90	436	76	55	16	87%	3.9	13.4%	14.3%	-0.9%	4.2%	7.57	6.11	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	90	436	76	55	16	87%	3.9	13.4%	14.3%	-0.9%	4.2%	7.57	6.11	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	90	436	76	55	16	87%	3.9	17.4%	12.6%	4.8%	3.7%	7.57	5.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SD	12	12	63	266	38	42	9	100%	5.2	14.1%	15.7%	-1.6%	3.3%	6.11	6.11	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	94	395	63	55	13	100%	5.5	16.0%	13.9%	2.1%	3.3%	5.78	5.69	-0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	95	400	68	51	13	100%	5.9	17.1%	12.8%	4.3%	3.2%	5.53	5.44	-0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	95	400	71	50	13	100%	5.9	17.7%	12.6%	5.1%	3.2%	5.40	5.35	-0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	93	394	70	49	13	100%	5.8	17.8%	12.5%	5.3%	3.3%	5.36	5.36	-0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	90	382	67	48	13	100%	6.0	17.7%	12.7%	5.0%	3.4%	5.41	5.44	-0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	86	365	64	47	13	100%	6.2	17.4%	12.9%	4.5%	3.5%	5.51	5.57	-0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	81	343	59	45	13	100%	5.8	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.7%	5.65	5.75	-0.8
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	41	173	28	24	6	100%	5.9	16.0%	13.9%	2.1%	3.3%	5.78	5.69	-0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	63	266	46	34	9	100%	5.7	17.1%	12.8%	4.3%	3.2%	5.53	5.44	-0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	75	317	56	40	10	100%	6.2	17.7%	12.6%	5.1%	3.2%	5.40	5.35	-0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	80	338	60	42	11	100%	6.2	17.8%	12.5%	5.3%	3.3%	5.36	5.36	-0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	81	342	60	43	12	100%	5.8	17.7%	12.7%	5.0%	3.4%	5.41	5.44	-0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	79	334	58	43	12	100%	6.1	17.4%	12.9%	4.5%	3.5%	5.51	5.57	-0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	75	317	54	42	12	100%	6.2	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	3.7%	5.65	5.75	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	83	493	2084	361	268	70	100%	5.9	17.3%	12.9%	4.5%	3.4%	5.50	5.12	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	146	109	28	100%	5.9	17.3%	12.9%	4.5%	3.4%	5.50	5.12	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		123	117	507	2249	373	272	64	95%	4.1	16.6%	12.1%	4.5%	2.8%	4.97	4.79	-4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	888	147	107	25	95%	4.1	16.6%	12.1%	4.5%	2.8%	4.97	4.79	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Lizarraga (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.11	14.1%	15.7%	3.3%	—	5.49	16.9%	3.8%	283	-0.62	—	—	—
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	85
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	85
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	85
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	84
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	82
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	82
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	81
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	81
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	81
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	81
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	81
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	81
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	4.21	254	81
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	81
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	80
Yoan López R 2016 · 5.84 FIP	23	SP	5.84	10.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.282	3.67	25.5%	17.4%	153	-2.17	2.21	377	80
Johnny Hellweg R 2013 · 5.63 FIP	24	SP	5.63	5.6%	16.0%	1.8%	.298	5.82	9.6%	-8.1%	82	+0.19	2.98	140	79
Victor Mederos R 2024 · 5.51 FIP	23	SP	5.51	13.4%	12.6%	3.5%	.322	3.93	17.6%	8.4%	198	-1.58	3.73	394	79
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	87	17.0%	13.2%	1.30	5.57
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Mike Kekich ('65-'77, -7 WAR*)	4.3	108	17.8%*	11.4%*	1.17*	5.83*
Rube Fischer ('41-'46, -4 WAR*)	1.9	96	18.0%*	12.5%*	1.14*	6.04*
Charlie Bishop ('52-'55, -1 WAR*)	1.5	98	16.9%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.49*