Abel Bastidas
SS Lakeland Flying Tigers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ADET | 244 | .216/.293/.312 | 2 | 0 | 34 | — | .182/.240/.249 |
| 2024 | 20 | A/ROKDET | 128 | .179/.264/.259 | 1 | 1 | -2 | — | .137/.192/.197 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA/A+/ADET | 231 | .243/.303/.295 | 1 | 1 | 30 | — | .195/.241/.241 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBDET | 341 | .182/.238/.260 | 3 | 5 | 40 | -0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBDET | 54 | .184/.242/.269 | 1 | 1 | 46 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBDET | 108 | .188/.247/.280 | 2 | 2 | 51 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 36
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers | — | 219 | 181 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 46 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 188 | 326 | 276 | 602 | 88 | 239 | 21 | 16 | 286 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers | — | 180 | 154 | 40 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 260 | 363 | 409 | 772 | 149 | 311 | 18 | 13 | 347 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 244 | 218 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 58 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 293 | 312 | 605 | 96 | 281 | 24 | 8 | 276 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 34 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 212 | 226 | 438 | 65 | 227 | 29 | 3 | 198 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Tigers | — | 94 | 81 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 283 | 272 | 554 | 86 | 246 | 27 | 12 | 255 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 17 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 118 | 100 | 41 | 0 | 53 | -82 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 84 | 80 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 300 | 333 | 412 | 746 | 112 | 434 | 31 | 5 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 130 | 113 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 315 | 248 | 563 | 18 | 313 | 25 | 10 | 262 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers | — | 219 | 191 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 56 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 110 | 220 | 157 | 377 | 47 | 146 | 26 | 11 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 180 | 163 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 190 | 263 | 288 | 551 | 98 | 259 | 27 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 244 | 225 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 81 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 240 | 249 | 489 | 67 | 268 | 33 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 34 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 182 | 161 | 343 | 32 | 186 | 38 | 3 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 94 | 86 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 140 | 196 | 209 | 405 | 70 | 197 | 38 | 6 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 17 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 118 | 103 | 47 | 0 | 47 | -82 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 84 | 81 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 247 | 274 | 346 | 619 | 99 | 408 | 40 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 130 | 117 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 244 | 197 | 441 | 17 | 268 | 35 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers | — | 219 | 191 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 56 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 110 | 220 | 157 | 377 | 47 | 148 | 26 | 11 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Tigers | — | 219 | 181 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 46 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 188 | 326 | 276 | 602 | 88 | 239 | 21 | 16 | 286 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 180 | 163 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 190 | 263 | 288 | 551 | 98 | 257 | 27 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Tigers | — | 180 | 154 | 40 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 260 | 363 | 409 | 772 | 149 | 311 | 18 | 13 | 347 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 244 | 225 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 81 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 240 | 249 | 489 | 67 | 276 | 33 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 244 | 218 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 58 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 293 | 312 | 605 | 96 | 281 | 24 | 8 | 276 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 128 | 118 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 176 | 186 | 362 | 59 | 200 | 39 | 5 | 166 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 128 | 112 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 264 | 259 | 523 | 80 | 241 | 27 | 9 | 240 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 231 | 215 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 241 | 242 | 483 | 47 | 318 | 38 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 231 | 210 | 51 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 66 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 243 | 303 | 295 | 598 | 52 | 342 | 29 | 7 | 272 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tigers | — | 219 | 190 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 56 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 111 | 220 | 158 | 378 | 47 | 146 | 26 | 11 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 180 | 162 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 191 | 263 | 290 | 553 | 99 | 259 | 27 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 244 | 225 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 81 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 240 | 249 | 489 | 67 | 268 | 33 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 128 | 120 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 125 | 176 | 183 | 359 | 58 | 194 | 39 | 5 | 166 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 231 | 216 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 241 | 241 | 482 | 46 | 307 | 38 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 128 | 120 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 125 | 176 | 183 | 359 | 58 | 194 | 39 | 5 | 166 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 231 | 216 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 241 | 241 | 482 | 46 | 307 | 38 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | DET | 0% | 341 | 315 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 102 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 182 | 238 | 260 | 498 | 78 | 254 | 30 | 6 | 227 | 40 | -24 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | DET | 30% | 181 | 166 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 188 | 244 | 275 | 519 | 88 | 257 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | DET | 44% | 244 | 225 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 71 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 191 | 250 | 286 | 535 | 94 | 259 | 29 | 6 | 243 | 51 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | DET | 30% | 54 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 242 | 269 | 511 | 85 | 253 | 30 | 6 | 233 | 46 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | DET | 44% | 108 | 99 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 247 | 280 | 526 | 91 | 255 | 29 | 6 | 239 | 51 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 162 | 150 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 193 | 248 | 300 | 548 | 107 | 257 | 29 | 6 | 237 | 34 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 116 | 20 | 4 | 12 | 40 | 189 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 193 | 248 | 299 | 547 | 106 | 257 | 29 | 6 | 237 | 34 | -39 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1571 | 1436 | 249 | 48 | 8 | 13 | 105 | 491 | 15 | 27 | 15 | 173 | 237 | 245 | 482 | 72 | 250 | 31 | 7 | 219 | 34 | -36 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +12 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 102 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 203 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 172 | 234 | 241 | 475 | 69 | 248 | 31 | 7 | 219 | 34 | -41 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 130 PAwOBA .262 → .205 (−57)K% 25.4% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.38% | ÷0.998 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | — | 25.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | — | 2.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.864 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 110, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 100, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .262 → .205; ISO .018 → .014; BABIP .313 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 84 PAwOBA .323 → .259 (−64)K% 31.0% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.95% | ÷0.960 | ×1.270 | — | — | 40.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 3.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 31.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.948 | ×0.810 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 6.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 1.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.850 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.76% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 92, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .323 → .259; ISO .113 → .092; BABIP .434 → .408. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 17 PAwOBA .052 → .047 (−5)K% 41.2% → 48.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.18% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 48.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.042 | 10.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.075 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.115 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 123, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .052 → .047; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .100 → .103. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Tigers · 94 PAwOBA .249 → .173 (−76)K% 26.6% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.60% | ÷0.991 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.040 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷0.993 | ×0.820 | ×1.026 | ×0.985 | 14.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.981 | ×0.720 | ×1.026 | ×0.985 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | ×1.026 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.952 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 1.44% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 89, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .249 → .173; ISO .086 → .062; BABIP .246 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 34 PAwOBA .198 → .145 (−54)K% 29.4% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷1.028 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.94% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 1.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 13.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.351 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 96, 2B 170, 3B 121, K 106, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .198 → .145; ISO .065 → .037; BABIP .227 → .186. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 244 PAwOBA .270 → .218 (−52)K% 23.8% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.77% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.38% | ÷1.089 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.38% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.030 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.12% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.030 | 6.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | ×1.021 | ×1.030 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.216 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 104, K 95, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .270 → .218; ISO .096 → .070; BABIP .281 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Tigers · 180 PAwOBA .340 → .253 (−87)K% 18.3% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.33% | ÷0.973 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.978 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.66% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 17.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.26% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷0.990 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.97% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 98, K 95, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .340 → .253; ISO .149 → .113; BABIP .311 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Tigers · 219 PAwOBA .281 → .183 (−98)K% 21.0% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.00% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.98% | ÷0.994 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 11.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.048 | ×0.680 | ×0.964 | ×1.008 | 11.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.96% | ÷1.082 | ×0.600 | ×0.964 | ×1.008 | 1.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.951 | ×0.600 | ×0.964 | ×1.008 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.48% | ÷0.956 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.73% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 110, 2B 116, 3B 90, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .281 → .183; ISO .088 → .049; BABIP .239 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).