Ricky Aracena
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ALexington Leg… | 343 | .261/.317/.323 | 3 | 17 | 42 | — | .223/.265/.268 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+/ROK2 orgs | 320 | .209/.283/.281 | 3 | 13 | 19 | — | .173/.221/.236 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+Beloit Snappe… | 432 | .228/.313/.339 | 3 | 28 | 34 | — | .176/.238/.260 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 117 | 109 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 294 | 306 | 349 | 655 | 55 | 364 | 18 | 2 | 278 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 297 | 267 | 67 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 53 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 251 | 301 | 322 | 623 | 71 | 308 | 18 | 6 | 273 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 114 | 108 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 139 | 139 | 148 | 287 | 9 | 200 | 30 | 0 | 122 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 31 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 385 | 467 | 731 | 1.197 | 346 | 421 | 16 | 13 | 493 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 343 | 303 | 79 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 61 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 261 | 317 | 323 | 641 | 63 | 313 | 18 | 6 | 281 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 294 | 257 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 73 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 198 | 267 | 249 | 516 | 51 | 270 | 25 | 7 | 231 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 26 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 462 | 667 | 1.128 | 333 | 294 | 8 | 15 | 484 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Snappers | — | 432 | 378 | 86 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 44 | 116 | 3 | 28 | 12 | 228 | 313 | 339 | 652 | 111 | 316 | 27 | 10 | 292 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 117 | 110 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 227 | 234 | 255 | 489 | 27 | 297 | 26 | 1 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 297 | 274 | 54 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 76 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 197 | 231 | 252 | 483 | 55 | 251 | 26 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 114 | 108 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 139 | 139 | 148 | 287 | 9 | 210 | 40 | 0 | 116 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 31 | 28 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 321 | 367 | 643 | 1.010 | 321 | 324 | 23 | 6 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 343 | 310 | 69 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 82 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 223 | 265 | 268 | 533 | 45 | 270 | 24 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 294 | 266 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 101 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 165 | 210 | 207 | 417 | 41 | 240 | 34 | 4 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 26 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 261 | 346 | 565 | 911 | 304 | 223 | 12 | 8 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 432 | 393 | 69 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 153 | 3 | 28 | 12 | 176 | 238 | 260 | 497 | 84 | 266 | 35 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 117 | 110 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 227 | 234 | 255 | 489 | 27 | 312 | 26 | 1 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Royals | — | 117 | 109 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 294 | 306 | 349 | 655 | 55 | 364 | 18 | 2 | 278 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 297 | 274 | 54 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 76 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 197 | 231 | 252 | 483 | 55 | 268 | 26 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK RAW | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 297 | 267 | 67 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 53 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 251 | 301 | 322 | 623 | 71 | 308 | 18 | 6 | 273 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 145 | 136 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 176 | 188 | 250 | 438 | 74 | 268 | 37 | 1 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 145 | 134 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 187 | 210 | 261 | 471 | 75 | 245 | 27 | 3 | 202 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 343 | 310 | 69 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 82 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 223 | 265 | 268 | 533 | 45 | 291 | 24 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A RAW | Lexington Legends | — | 343 | 303 | 79 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 61 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 261 | 317 | 323 | 641 | 63 | 313 | 18 | 6 | 281 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 289 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 104 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 173 | 221 | 235 | 457 | 62 | 255 | 32 | 4 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 320 | 278 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 75 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 209 | 283 | 281 | 564 | 72 | 272 | 23 | 8 | 252 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 432 | 393 | 69 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 153 | 3 | 28 | 12 | 176 | 238 | 260 | 497 | 84 | 277 | 35 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | Beloit Snappers | — | 432 | 378 | 86 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 44 | 116 | 3 | 28 | 12 | 228 | 313 | 339 | 652 | 111 | 316 | 27 | 10 | 292 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 117 | 115 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 217 | 234 | 243 | 478 | 26 | 297 | 26 | 1 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK MLE | Idaho Falls Chukars | — | 297 | 283 | 54 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 76 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 191 | 231 | 244 | 475 | 53 | 251 | 26 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 145 | 142 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 169 | 188 | 239 | 428 | 70 | 234 | 37 | 1 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 343 | 322 | 69 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 82 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 214 | 265 | 258 | 523 | 43 | 270 | 24 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 299 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 104 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 167 | 221 | 227 | 449 | 60 | 239 | 32 | 4 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 432 | 397 | 69 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 153 | 3 | 28 | 12 | 174 | 238 | 257 | 495 | 83 | 266 | 35 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1654 | 1512 | 291 | 33 | 15 | 10 | 70 | 498 | 13 | 87 | 40 | 192 | 234 | 254 | 488 | 62 | 277 | 30 | 4 | 209 | 27 | -143 | +1 | +0 | +18 | +36 | -9.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 115 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 196 | 5 | 34 | 16 | 194 | 236 | 256 | 492 | 62 | 278 | 30 | 4 | 209 | 27 | -56 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -3.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 A+Beloit Snappers · 432 PAwOBA .288 → .219 (−69)K% 26.9% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.85% | ÷1.025 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.19% | ÷1.054 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.28% | ÷1.049 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 19.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.20% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 3.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.20% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 3.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 0.87% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 110, 2B 91, 3B 95, K 105, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .288 → .219; ISO .111 → .086; BABIP .316 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 294 PAwOBA .227 → .181 (−46)K% 24.8% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.83% | ÷1.024 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.102 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 4.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.28% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 20.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 3.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷0.921 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.54% | ÷0.884 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 0.56% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 100, 2B 99, 3B 84, K 105, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .227 → .181; ISO .051 → .042; BABIP .270 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Royals · 26 PAwOBA .471 → .356 (−115)K% 7.7% → 11.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 11.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 9.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 16.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 3.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 8.01% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .471 → .356; ISO .333 → .264; BABIP .294 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ALexington Legends · 343 PAwOBA .277 → .230 (−47)K% 17.8% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.12% | ÷1.016 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 4.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 24.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.13% | ÷1.112 | ×0.820 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 3.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.993 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.24% | ÷1.051 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 109, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .277 → .230; ISO .063 → .048; BABIP .313 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ALexington Legends · 114 PAwOBA .120 → .116 (−4)K% 29.8% → 40.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.82% | ÷0.991 | ×1.340 | — | — | 40.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷0.936 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 20.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.982 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 1.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.125 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 87, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .120 → .116; ISO .009 → .008; BABIP .200 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars · 31 PAwOBA .479 → .360 (−120)K% 16.1% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.13% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.995 | 7.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 23.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.995 | 7.11% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .479 → .360; ISO .346 → .259; BABIP .421 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars · 297 PAwOBA .267 → .203 (−64)K% 17.8% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.85% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×1.008 | 3.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.010 | ×1.008 | 21.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.010 | ×1.008 | 2.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.010 | ×1.008 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.008 | 0.35% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .267 → .203; ISO .071 → .051; BABIP .308 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKAZL Royals · 117 PAwOBA .270 → .211 (−59)K% 17.9% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 1.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 26.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 1.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.022 | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .270 → .211; ISO .055 → .039; BABIP .364 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).