Layonel Ovalles

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 216 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	MIX2 levels	24	20	94	4.58	3.81	22.9%	10.1%	—	K 17.4% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.70
2024	21	MIX3 levels	27	0	50	4.50	3.02	25.1%	14.2%	—	K 17.5% · BB 18.6% · FIP 4.46
2025	22	MIX3 levels	27	0	37	2.17	3.50	22.4%	15.4%	—	K 17.2% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	15	0	16	5.12	5.12	21.0%	14.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYM	14	0	15	4.94	4.86	21.6%	12.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsTrent Fennell (age 23) · Jarret Whorff (age 24) · Brad Deppermann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%21.0%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	12	6	35	136	34	8	0	50%	2.9	17.0%	7.4%	9.6%	0.0%	2.83	2.60	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	12	6	35	136	34	8	0	50%	2.9	25.0%	5.9%	19.1%	0.0%	2.83	1.84	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	4	47	200	66	17	3	25%	2.9	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.1%	4.05	3.57	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	4	47	200	66	17	3	25%	2.9	33.0%	8.5%	24.5%	1.5%	4.05	2.20	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	94	406	93	41	10	83%	3.9	17.4%	11.9%	5.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.70	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	94	406	93	41	10	83%	3.9	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.5%	4.58	3.81	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	50	219	55	31	1	0%	1.9	17.5%	18.6%	-1.1%	0.9%	4.50	4.46	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	50	219	55	31	1	0%	1.9	17.5%	18.6%	-1.1%	0.9%	4.50	4.46	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	50	219	55	31	1	0%	1.9	25.1%	14.2%	11.0%	0.5%	4.50	3.02	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	37	156	35	24	1	0%	1.4	17.2%	16.7%	0.5%	1.5%	2.17	4.60	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	37	156	35	24	1	0%	1.4	17.2%	16.7%	0.5%	1.5%	2.17	4.60	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	37	156	35	24	1	0%	1.4	22.4%	15.4%	7.1%	0.6%	2.17	3.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	15	0	16	68	14	10	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	14.3%	6.7%	2.9%	5.12	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	32	0	34	144	31	18	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.86	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	14	0	15	63	14	8	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	61	13	8	2	0%	1.0	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	110	28	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.49	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		106	30	263	1117	205	145	20	28%	2.5	18.3%	13.0%	5.3%	1.8%	3.90	4.18	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	23	200	848	156	110	15	28%	2.5	18.3%	13.0%	5.3%	1.8%	3.90	4.18	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Layonel Ovalles (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	21.0%	14.3%	2.9%	—	4.86	21.6%	8.9%	34	-0.26	—	—	—
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	83
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	82
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	79
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	77
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	77
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	77
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	76
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	76
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	76
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.36	27.3%	13.8%	163	-0.09	3.05	349	76
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	76
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	75
Richard Guasch R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	24	SW	4.41	22.3%	16.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	23.8%	11.8%	72	-1.17	2.94	316	75
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	75
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	75
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	74
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	74
Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SU	3.94	23.7%	18.2%	1.0%	.331	5.04	22.6%	10.5%	137	+1.10	3.94	193	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.4%	13.2%	1.13	5.00
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27