Carlos Lopez
P
ACL Giants Orange
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 14 | 0 | 20 | 80 | 27 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.0% | 18.8% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 3.66 | 3.54 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 14 | 0 | 20 | 80 | 27 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.8% | 15.0% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 3.66 | 2.18 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 15 | 0 | 19 | 101 | 26 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.5% | 19.8% | -2.3% | 1.5% | 4.66 | 4.93 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | 15 | 0 | 19 | 101 | 26 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.7% | 15.8% | 9.9% | 1.0% | 4.66 | 3.57 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 13 | 9 | 49 | 228 | 50 | 32 | 3 | 69% | 3.8 | 14.9% | 17.5% | -2.6% | 1.1% | 5.14 | 4.64 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 13 | 9 | 49 | 228 | 50 | 32 | 3 | 69% | 3.8 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.3% | 5.14 | 3.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | SF | 28 | 0 | 29 | 123 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 28 | 0 | 30 | 126 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SF | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 3.86 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 78 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 9 | 88 | 409 | 70 | 75 | 4 | 21% | 2.1 | 17.1% | 18.3% | -1.2% | 0.9% | 4.70 | 4.50 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 20 | 200 | 930 | 159 | 170 | 9 | 21% | 2.1 | 17.1% | 18.3% | -1.2% | 0.9% | 4.70 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Lopez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.24 | 23.8% | 14.7% | 30 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.25 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 39 | +1.48 | 3.77 | 132 | 82 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 82 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 4.51 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.32 | 4.19 | 201 | 80 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 78 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 78 |
| Michael Johnson L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 77 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.54 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .259 | 4.09 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.55 | 3.54 | 206 | 77 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.79 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .366 | 4.10 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.31 | 3.37 | 275 | 77 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .294 | 2.76 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.76 | 2.17 | 310 | 77 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.67 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.08 | 2.51 | 119 | 77 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 77 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .262 | 3.93 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.01 | 2.70 | 288 | 76 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.65 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 63 | +0.08 | 2.91 | 141 | 76 |
| Easton Lucas L 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 76 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 76 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 76 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 76 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.89 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.81 | 4.08 | 212 | 76 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .342 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.22 | 2.21 | 452 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 30 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 1.15 | 4.31 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |