Alexander Alberto
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'8" / 203 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.6%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 14 | 2 | 26 | 123 | 21 | 19 | 0 | 11.6% | 19.3% | 0.0% | 4.21 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Rays | 13 | 10 | 36 | 169 | 40 | 22 | 1 | 16.1% | 16.3% | 1.0% | 6.44 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 11 | 3 | 28 | 121 | 32 | 23 | 0 | 18.0% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 5.79 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 24 | 0 | 34 | 143 | 37 | 19 | 0 | 18.5% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 2.67 | 3.58 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 42 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 64 | 21 | 1 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 0.6% | 2.59 | 2.96 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.23 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 40 | 169 | 39 | 16 | 4 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.49 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TB | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TB | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 15 | 177 | 783 | 142 | 127 | 3 | 18.2% | 16.3% | 0.4% | 4.23 | 3.84 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 17 | 200 | 886 | 161 | 144 | 3 | 18.2% | 16.3% | 0.4% | 4.23 | 3.84 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alexander Alberto (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.18 | 23.5% | 13.8% | 108 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 94 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 92 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 91 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 91 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 90 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 90 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 90 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 89 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .301 | 4.39 | 26.1% | 10.7% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 143 | 89 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 89 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 88 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 88 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 88 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 88 |
| Sam Carlson R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.59 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 1.9% | .302 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 108 | -0.14 | 3.20 | 313 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 88 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 87 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 87 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 87 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .270 | 4.50 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 164 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||