Alexander Alberto

Alexander Alberto P Durham Bulls

Age 24 RHP 6'8" / 203 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%23.2%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL—45

CMD2535

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	14	2	26	123	21	19	0	14%	1.8	11.6%	19.3%	-7.7%	0.0%	4.21	4.57	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	14	2	26	123	21	19	0	14%	1.8	17.1%	15.4%	1.6%	0.0%	4.21	3.68	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	13	10	36	169	40	22	1	77%	2.8	16.1%	16.3%	-0.2%	0.9%	6.44	4.31	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	13	10	36	169	40	22	1	77%	2.8	23.7%	13.0%	10.7%	0.6%	6.44	3.07	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	3	28	121	32	23	0	27%	2.5	18.0%	23.8%	-5.8%	0.0%	5.79	4.59	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	3	28	121	32	23	0	27%	2.5	18.0%	23.8%	-5.8%	0.0%	5.79	4.59	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	11	3	28	121	32	23	0	27%	2.5	26.4%	19.0%	7.4%	0.0%	5.79	3.28	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	34	143	37	19	0	0%	1.4	18.5%	16.1%	2.4%	0.0%	2.67	3.58	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	34	143	37	19	0	0%	1.4	18.5%	16.1%	2.4%	0.0%	2.67	3.58	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	34	143	37	19	0	0%	1.4	25.9%	13.3%	12.6%	0.0%	2.67	2.60	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	49	209	64	21	1	0%	1.2	23.3%	11.6%	11.7%	0.6%	2.59	2.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	49	209	64	21	1	0%	1.2	23.3%	11.6%	11.7%	0.6%	2.59	2.96	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	49	209	64	21	1	0%	1.2	30.6%	10.0%	20.6%	0.5%	2.59	2.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	47	5	57	242	69	23	5	11%	1.2	23.3%	9.2%	14.1%	2.3%	3.61	3.54	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	47	5	57	242	69	23	5	11%	1.2	23.3%	9.2%	14.1%	2.3%	3.61	3.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	TB	21	0	29	113	39	8	0	0%	1.4	34.5%	7.1%	27.4%	0.0%	2.20	1.08	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	TB	26	5	29	129	30	15	5	19%	1.1	23.3%	11.6%	11.6%	3.9%	5.02	4.74	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TB	5	0	5	22	5	3	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	14.6%	8.7%	2.6%	4.79	4.79	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	63	264	74	26	6	—	—	28.1%	9.9%	18.2%	2.1%	3.71	3.65	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	55	0	58	244	58	33	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.3%	10.3%	2.6%	4.66	4.61	-0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	55	0	58	244	58	32	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	13.0%	10.9%	2.6%	4.59	4.56	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	27	0	28	118	28	16	3	0%	1.0	23.6%	13.3%	10.3%	2.6%	4.66	4.61	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	38	0	40	169	40	22	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	13.0%	10.9%	2.6%	4.59	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	0	68	289	69	38	8	0%	1.1	23.8%	13.1%	10.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.20	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	111	23	0%	1.1	23.8%	13.1%	10.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		151	20	230	1007	195	150	8	13%	1.5	19.4%	14.9%	4.5%	0.8%	4.04	3.81	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	17	200	877	170	130	7	13%	1.5	19.4%	14.9%	4.5%	0.8%	4.04	3.81	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Alberto (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	23.2%	14.6%	2.6%	—	4.59	23.7%	10.6%	116	-0.20	—	—	—
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	92
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	90
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	90
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	90
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	89
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	89
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	89
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	89
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	89
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	88
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	88
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	88
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	88
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Peter Tago R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.21	3.26	207	87
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	87
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	87
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	23.6%	13.6%	1.01	4.68
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99