César Prieto
2B Memphis Redbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 647 | .276/.317/.422 | 14 | 8 | 82 | — | .260/.291/.396 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 562 | .297/.366/.437 | 9 | 14 | 97 | — | .270/.325/.394 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 392 | .315/.383/.514 | 13 | 6 | 117 | — | .279/.324/.424 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBSTL | 39 | .079/.103/.132 | 0 | 1 | -42 | -0.4 | |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 28 | MLBSTL | 46 | .262/.307/.392 | 1 | 1 | 96 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ39% MLB | 29 | MLBSTL | 107 | .259/.305/.386 | 2 | 1 | 94 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 30 | MLBSTL | 124 | .256/.302/.380 | 2 | 1 | 91 | 0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 389 | 368 | 94 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 58 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 255 | 296 | 348 | 643 | 92 | 294 | 15 | 4 | 290 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 105 | 97 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 340 | 385 | 619 | 1.003 | 278 | 347 | 15 | 5 | 432 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 60 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 189 | 271 | 358 | 630 | 170 | 231 | 23 | 10 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 291 | 267 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 35 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 288 | 338 | 419 | 757 | 131 | 310 | 12 | 5 | 334 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 249 | 231 | 84 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 364 | 407 | 476 | 883 | 113 | 379 | 7 | 6 | 393 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 55 | 48 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 292 | 382 | 458 | 840 | 167 | 341 | 13 | 13 | 373 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 535 | 501 | 140 | 35 | 3 | 14 | 23 | 63 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 279 | 319 | 445 | 764 | 166 | 296 | 12 | 4 | 335 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 112 | 103 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 262 | 309 | 311 | 620 | 49 | 293 | 11 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 515 | 460 | 138 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 70 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 300 | 366 | 452 | 818 | 152 | 335 | 14 | 8 | 360 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 47 | 41 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 268 | 362 | 268 | 630 | 324 | 15 | 13 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 39 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 79 | 103 | 132 | 234 | 53 | 91 | 13 | 3 | 106 | -42 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.4 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 360 | 319 | 99 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 46 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 310 | 375 | 498 | 873 | 188 | 323 | 13 | 7 | 378 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | INTL | Estrellas Orientales | — | 32 | 27 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 370 | 469 | 704 | 1.172 | 333 | 450 | 19 | 6 | 500 | 225 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 39 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 79 | 103 | 132 | 234 | 53 | 91 | 13 | 3 | 106 | -42 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 389 | 372 | 89 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 71 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 239 | 272 | 312 | 584 | 73 | 290 | 18 | 3 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 105 | 99 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 293 | 327 | 525 | 852 | 232 | 306 | 20 | 3 | 354 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 291 | 271 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 269 | 310 | 384 | 694 | 114 | 292 | 14 | 4 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 249 | 236 | 87 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 369 | 399 | 462 | 861 | 93 | 387 | 8 | 4 | 369 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 535 | 508 | 132 | 33 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 79 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 260 | 291 | 396 | 686 | 136 | 284 | 15 | 3 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 515 | 470 | 127 | 29 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 88 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 270 | 325 | 394 | 718 | 123 | 310 | 17 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 39 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 79 | 103 | 132 | 234 | 53 | 91 | 13 | 3 | 106 | -42 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.4 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 360 | 330 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 55 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 279 | 324 | 424 | 748 | 145 | 293 | 15 | 4 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 554 | 528 | 132 | 26 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 104 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 250 | 283 | 356 | 639 | 106 | 293 | 19 | 3 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 554 | 518 | 137 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 88 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 264 | 310 | 400 | 709 | 135 | 298 | 16 | 5 | 316 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 595 | 560 | 174 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 70 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 311 | 346 | 409 | 755 | 98 | 342 | 12 | 4 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 595 | 546 | 175 | 29 | 5 | 10 | 37 | 59 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 321 | 371 | 447 | 818 | 126 | 343 | 10 | 6 | 362 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 647 | 613 | 159 | 40 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 96 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 259 | 291 | 393 | 684 | 134 | 289 | 15 | 3 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 647 | 604 | 167 | 38 | 4 | 14 | 28 | 75 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 276 | 317 | 422 | 739 | 146 | 295 | 12 | 4 | 325 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 515 | 139 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 96 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 270 | 323 | 396 | 719 | 126 | 316 | 17 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 562 | 501 | 149 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 77 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 297 | 366 | 437 | 803 | 140 | 334 | 14 | 8 | 355 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 431 | 395 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 65 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 258 | 307 | 390 | 697 | 132 | 283 | 15 | 4 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 431 | 384 | 112 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 57 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 292 | 357 | 477 | 834 | 185 | 307 | 13 | 6 | 362 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 554 | 525 | 132 | 26 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 104 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 251 | 283 | 358 | 641 | 107 | 293 | 19 | 3 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 595 | 560 | 174 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 70 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 311 | 346 | 409 | 755 | 98 | 336 | 12 | 4 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 647 | 615 | 159 | 40 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 96 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 259 | 291 | 392 | 682 | 133 | 284 | 15 | 3 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 517 | 139 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 96 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 269 | 323 | 395 | 717 | 126 | 310 | 17 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 431 | 400 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 65 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 255 | 307 | 385 | 692 | 130 | 273 | 15 | 4 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 647 | 615 | 159 | 40 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 96 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 259 | 291 | 392 | 682 | 133 | 284 | 15 | 3 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 517 | 139 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 96 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 269 | 323 | 395 | 717 | 126 | 310 | 17 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 431 | 400 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 65 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 255 | 307 | 385 | 692 | 130 | 273 | 15 | 4 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 30% | 380 | 354 | 92 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 62 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 261 | 306 | 392 | 698 | 131 | 297 | 16 | 4 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 30% | 46 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 307 | 392 | 699 | 129 | 300 | 17 | 4 | 310 | 96 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 39% | 272 | 254 | 65 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 46 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 258 | 304 | 387 | 691 | 129 | 296 | 17 | 4 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 45% | 272 | 253 | 65 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 255 | 301 | 380 | 681 | 126 | 294 | 18 | 5 | 303 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB MLE | STL | 50% | 254 | 236 | 58 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 297 | 372 | 669 | 122 | 291 | 18 | 5 | 298 | 88 | -4 | -0 | -4 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 39% | 107 | 99 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 259 | 305 | 386 | 691 | 127 | 298 | 17 | 5 | 307 | 94 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 45% | 124 | 115 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 302 | 380 | 682 | 124 | 297 | 18 | 5 | 303 | 91 | -1 | +0 | -2 | +0 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB CTX | STL | 50% | 126 | 117 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 298 | 371 | 670 | 120 | 294 | 18 | 5 | 298 | 88 | -2 | +0 | -2 | +0 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 396 | 369 | 89 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 68 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 241 | 288 | 366 | 653 | 125 | 279 | 17 | 5 | 283 | 91 | -11 | +1 | -5 | +3 | +9 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 147 | 33 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 112 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 243 | 290 | 370 | 660 | 127 | 280 | 17 | 5 | 283 | 91 | -17 | +1 | -8 | +5 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3742 | 3498 | 932 | 192 | 19 | 64 | 150 | 596 | 58 | 52 | 44 | 266 | 308 | 387 | 695 | 121 | 303 | 16 | 4 | 303 | 91 | -16 | +0 | -12 | +5 | +21 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 608 | 161 | 33 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 104 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 265 | 306 | 383 | 689 | 118 | 302 | 16 | 4 | 303 | 91 | -11 | +0 | -8 | +3 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 360 PAwOBA .372 → .326 (−46)K% 12.8% → 15.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 22.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .372 → .326; ISO .188 → .149; BABIP .323 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 515 PAwOBA .353 → .313 (−41)K% 13.6% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.59% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.57% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×1.002 | ×1.018 | 22.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.97% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×1.018 | 7.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.018 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.31% | ÷0.869 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .353 → .313; ISO .152 → .129; BABIP .335 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 535 PAwOBA .326 → .291 (−35)K% 11.8% → 14.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.78% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.30% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.09% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 19.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.99% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 7.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.20% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .326 → .291; ISO .166 → .135; BABIP .296 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 291 PAwOBA .328 → .296 (−33)K% 12.0% → 14.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.03% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.15% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | ×1.020 | ×1.048 | 23.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.60% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.048 | 5.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.020 | ×1.048 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.99% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .328 → .296; ISO .131 → .110; BABIP .310 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 249 PAwOBA .383 → .369 (−14)K% 6.8% → 8.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.83% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.62% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.31% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | ×1.040 | ×1.012 | 33.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.61% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | ×1.040 | ×1.012 | 4.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | ×1.040 | ×1.012 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.87% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.22% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .383 → .369; ISO .113 → .089; BABIP .379 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABowie Baysox · 389 PAwOBA .283 → .256 (−27)K% 14.9% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.91% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.86% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.94% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×1.028 | ×1.027 | 22.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷1.055 | ×0.860 | ×1.028 | ×1.027 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.028 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.29% | ÷1.170 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.88% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .283 → .256; ISO .092 → .072; BABIP .294 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 105 PAwOBA .423 → .354 (−69)K% 15.2% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.24% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 20.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 2.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.69% | ÷0.980 | ×0.870 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 22.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.955 | ×0.780 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 6.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.850 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.64% | ÷1.029 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.38% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .423 → .354; ISO .278 → .232; BABIP .347 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .