Harold Castro

2B Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 33 L/R 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202329INTLLeones del Ca…148.315/.382/.49254141—
202329MLBCOL270.252/.277/.3141159-1.0
202430INTLLeones del Ca…213.332/.394/.627156185—
202531AAA/INTL2 orgs603.315/.358/.51927996—.231/.270/.391
202632No MLB games played
2027PROJ20% MLB33MLBKC48.265/.305/.436211100.2
2028PROJ16% MLB34MLBKC40.254/.293/.413101000.0
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.0  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$7M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023
xwOBA46
Speed30
Avg EV26
Barrel%20
Bat Spd10
CompsCharlie Blackmon (age 33) · Stephen Vogt (age 35) · Welington Castillo (age 32)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†110
AVG/OBP/SLG.265 / .305 / .436
PA48
HR2
K%23
BB%4
BABIP318
ISO174
MLB%20%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +3.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+3BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.90+0.9WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.90.02728
Tools · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2021-2023
CONTACT
xAVG
710.268
POWER
Barrel%
204.4
Avg EV
2687.3
Bat Spd
1066.6
SPEED
Sprint
3026.5
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2019
Service   8.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$7M+0.2$0.7M-$6M
Totals $7M $0.7M -$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201117 ROKVSL Tigers — 272252 791001 11214 247 313352365717 52339 84 320 36 — — — — — —
201218 ROKGCL Tigers — 216193 601421 10251 153 311348420768 109347 125 324 63 — — — — — —
201319 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers — 8073 20210 5220 32 274321329649 55385 286 288 50 — — — — — —
201319 AWest Michigan Whitecaps — 153147 34711 2400 51 231242313555 82308 261 240 17 — — — — — —
201420 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers — 232211 63500 9403 88 299336322659 24366 174 290 59 — — — — — —
201420 AWest Michigan Whitecaps — 8372 18500 571 32 250308319627 69273 86 270 50 — — — — — —
201521 AAErie SeaWolves — 363336 861221 14631 179 256288312600 57306 174 263 56 — — — — — —
201521 INTLLeones del Caracas — 4944 13301 250 10 295326432758 136316 104 316 100 — — — — — —
201622 AAErie SeaWolves — 416392 971614 11632 67 247272324596 77284 153 261 42 — — — — — —
201622 INTLLeones del Caracas — 143131 37730 6300 00 282314382696 99359 214 297 87 — — — — — —
201723 AAErie SeaWolves — 449414 1201641 18536 209 290329355684 65326 124 302 78 — — — — — —
201723 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers — 3333 12210 030 20 364364485848 121400 90 374 100 — — — — — —
201723 INTLLeones del Caracas — 179163 44910 9192 04 270316337654 67301 115 289 82 — — — — — —
201824 AAAToledo Mud Hens — 251241 62802 5470 33 257272315588 58309 192 259 45 — — — — — —
201824 AAErie SeaWolves — 116110 31500 4211 21 282313327640 45344 183 289 65 — — — — — —
201824 INTLLeones del Caracas — 263245 841323 13300 62 343376449825 106377 115 361 130 — — — — — —
201925 MLBDetroit Tigers — 369354 1031045 9860 42 291309384693 93367 232 304 95 -2 +0 -5 +2 +8 0.2
201925 AAAToledo Mud Hens — 134122 40514 9260 13 328374484858 156387 197 372 103 — — — — — —
202026 MLBDetroit Tigers — 5449 17400 5110 00 347407429836 82447 209 378 145 +3 +0 -1 -1 +1 0.3
202127 MLBDetroit Tigers — 339315 891313 14721 11 283315359674 76351 214 296 89 -4 -0 -8 +4 +7 -0.2
202228 MLBDetroit Tigers — 443420 1142127 17791 01 271301381682 110318 184 301 92 -4 -0 -11 -10 +10 -1.5
202228 INTLLeones del Caracas — 10399 37100 2122 22 374398384782 10425 122 357 127 — — — — — —
202329 MLBColorado Rockies — 270258 651301 9660 10 252277314591 62332 243 264 59 -13 +0 -4 +1 +6 -1.0
202329 INTLLeones del Caracas — 148130 41425 11193 40 315382492874 177327 137 377 141 — — — — — —
202430 INTLLeones del Caracas — 213193 6410115 16414 63 3323946271.021 295358 198 442 185 — — — — — —
202531 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 403368 11318221 26782 72 307356538894 231339 196 384 77 — — — — — —
202531 INTLLeones del Caracas — 200187 621006 8461 22 332362481844 150406 234 366 134 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 14751396 38861716 543142 64 278306366672 88345 214 296 87 -23 -0 -29 -3 +32 -2.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201117 ROK MLEVSL Tigers — 272255 56600 8264 247 220255243498 24240 103 222 36 — — — — — —
201218 ROK MLEGCL Tigers — 216197 521121 6361 153 264289355645 91287 173 261 63 — — — — — —
201319 A+ MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 8074 18210 4310 32 243282297579 54376 395 242 50 — — — — — —
201319 A MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 153147 29611 2550 51 197208272480 75284 361 194 17 — — — — — —
201420 A+ MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 232213 57500 7573 88 268300291592 23345 253 255 59 — — — — — —
201420 A MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 8373 18500 4101 32 247295315610 68249 125 242 50 — — — — — —
201521 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 363341 871021 9801 179 255276305581 50311 222 251 56 — — — — — —
201622 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 416395 901413 8772 67 228247291538 63266 192 230 42 — — — — — —
201723 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 449420 1191541 12666 209 283313345658 62321 153 283 78 — — — — — —
201723 A+ MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 3333 11210 040 20 333333455788 121364 120 316 100 — — — — — —
201824 AAA MLEToledo Mud Hens — 251242 59702 4560 33 244256298554 54294 222 234 45 — — — — — —
201824 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 116111 30500 3261 21 270296315611 45340 223 265 65 — — — — — —
201925 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 369354 1041045 9860 42 294311387698 93367 232 308 95 -2 +0 -5 +2 +8 0.2
201925 AAA MLEToledo Mud Hens — 134125 36414 6300 13 288321432753 144339 224 321 103 — — — — — —
202026 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 5449 17400 5110 00 347407429836 82447 209 383 145 +3 +0 -1 -1 +1 0.3
202127 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 339315 901313 14721 11 286318362680 76351 214 300 89 -4 -0 -8 +4 +7 -0.2
202228 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 443421 1152127 16791 01 273301382684 109318 184 305 92 -4 -0 -11 -10 +10 -1.5
202329 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 270258 631301 9660 10 244270306576 62332 243 256 59 -13 +0 -4 +1 +6 -1.0
202531 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 403376 8714214 18932 72 231270391661 160264 234 282 77 — — — — — —
201117 ROK MLEVSL Tigers — 272255 56600 8264 247 220255243498 24245 103 222 36 — — — — — —
201117 ROK RAWVSL Tigers — 272252 791001 11214 247 313352365717 52339 84 320 36 — — — — — —
201218 ROK MLEGCL Tigers — 216197 521121 6361 153 264289355645 91313 173 261 63 — — — — — —
201218 ROK RAWGCL Tigers — 216193 601421 10251 153 311348420768 109347 125 324 63 — — — — — —
201319 A MLE2 teams — 233222 47821 5860 83 212229279508 68336 372 210 29 — — — — — —
201319 A RAW2 teams — 233220 54921 7620 83 245269318587 73333 273 256 29 — — — — — —
201420 A+ MLE2 teams — 315287 751000 10684 1110 261296296592 35339 223 252 56 — — — — — —
201420 A+ RAW2 teams — 315283 811000 14474 1110 286329322650 35340 154 285 56 — — — — — —
201521 AA MLE2 teams — 412385 991221 11911 189 257280306586 49328 223 251 56 — — — — — —
201521 AA RAW2 teams — 412380 991522 16681 189 261292326619 66307 174 269 56 — — — — — —
201622 AA MLE2 teams — 559529 1211914 111032 67 229247291538 62275 182 230 42 — — — — — —
201622 AA RAW2 teams — 559523 1342344 17932 67 256282338621 82302 173 270 42 — — — — — —
201723 AA MLE3 teams — 661620 1782461 17978 2213 287315350665 63335 153 285 79 — — — — — —
201723 AA RAW3 teams — 661610 1762761 27758 2213 289327357685 69323 114 302 79 — — — — — —
201824 INTL MLE3 teams — 630607 1511903 111401 116 249263295558 46315 222 244 51 — — — — — —
201824 INTL RAW3 teams — 630596 1772625 22981 116 297323372696 76345 163 307 51 — — — — — —
201925 MLB MLE2 teams — 503479 1401459 151160 55 292314399713 106365 233 312 97 -2 -1 -5 +2 +11 0.5
201925 MLB RAW2 teams — 503476 1431559 181120 55 300326410736 109372 224 322 97 -2 -1 -5 +2 +11 0.5
202026 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 5449 17400 5110 00 347407429836 82447 209 383 145 +3 +0 -1 -1 +1 0.3
202026 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 5449 17400 5110 00 347407429836 82447 209 378 145 +3 +0 -1 -1 +1 0.3
202127 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 339315 901313 14721 11 286318362680 76355 214 300 89 -4 -0 -8 +4 +7 -0.2
202127 MLB RAWDetroit Tigers — 339315 891313 14721 11 283315359674 76351 214 296 89 -4 -0 -8 +4 +7 -0.2
202228 MLB MLE2 teams — 546518 1422629 20973 23 274305384689 110321 184 305 92 -5 -1 -11 -10 +12 -1.5
202228 MLB RAW2 teams — 546519 1512227 19913 23 291320382701 91340 173 312 92 -5 -1 -11 -10 +12 -1.5
202329 MLB MLE2 teams — 418394 961901 141023 50 244275299574 56320 243 256 59 -20 +1 -4 +1 +9 -1.3
202329 MLB RAW2 teams — 418388 1061726 20853 50 273314374688 101330 205 304 59 -20 +1 -4 +1 +9 -1.3
202430 INTL MLELeones del Caracas — 213193 6410115 16414 63 3323946271.021 295358 198 — — — — — — — —
202430 INTL RAWLeones del Caracas — 213193 6410115 16414 63 3323946271.021 295358 198 442 185 — — — — — —
202531 AAA MLE2 teams — 603562 13121321 271393 94 233272393665 160270 234 282 77 — — — — — —
202531 AAA RAW2 teams — 603555 17528227 341243 94 315358519877 204362 216 378 77 — — — — — —
201117 ROK MLEVSL Tigers — 272258 56600 8264 247 217255240495 23240 103 222 36 — — — — — —
201218 ROK MLEGCL Tigers — 216207 521121 6361 153 251289338627 87287 173 261 63 — — — — — —
201319 A MLE2 teams — 233226 47821 5860 83 208229274503 66316 372 210 29 — — — — — —
201420 A+ MLE2 teams — 315298 751000 10684 1110 252296285581 34320 223 252 56 — — — — — —
201521 AA MLE2 teams — 412397 991221 11911 189 249280297577 48311 223 251 56 — — — — — —
201622 AA MLE2 teams — 559541 1211914 111032 67 224247285532 61266 182 230 42 — — — — — —
201723 AA MLE3 teams — 661631 1782461 17978 2213 282315344659 62324 153 285 79 — — — — — —
201824 INTL MLE3 teams — 630613 1511903 111401 116 246263292555 46309 222 244 51 — — — — — —
201925 MLB MLE2 teams — 503483 1401459 151160 55 290314395709 106360 233 312 97 — — — — — —
202026 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 5449 17400 5110 00 347407429836 82447 209 383 145 — — — — — —
202127 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 339321 901313 14721 11 280318355673 75351 214 300 89 — — — — — —
202228 MLB MLE2 teams — 546518 1422629 20973 23 274305384689 110318 184 305 92 — — — — — —
202329 MLB MLE2 teams — 418398 961901 141023 50 241275296571 55332 243 256 59 — — — — — —
202531 AAA MLE2 teams — 603568 13121321 271393 94 231272389661 158264 234 282 77 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202531 AAA MLE2 teams — 603568 13121321 271393 94 231272389661 158264 234 282 77 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202733 MLB MLEKC 20% 416390 10419215 20993 82 269309449758 180321 245 331 110 +5 +1 -1 +1 +9 0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202733 MLB CTXKC 20% 4846 12202 2110 10 265305436742 171318 234 325 110 +1 +0 -0 +0 +1 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202834 MLB MLEKC 16% 260245 631119 12641 21 258297425722 167311 255 317 100 +0 +0 -6 +1 +6 0.1
202834 MLB CTXKC 16% 4038 9201 2100 00 254293413707 159308 255 310 100 +0 +0 -1 +0 +1 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 15151434 39763717 563242 64 277305366671 89344 214 297 64 -23 -0 -30 -3 +33 -2.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650615 1702737 241391 32 276305364669 88343 214 297 64 -10 -0 -13 -1 +14 -1.0
Career— MLE — 64726080 15822382787 213134538 14976 260290351641 91318 213 263 64 -20 +0 -36 -2 +43 -1.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650611 1602439 211354 158 262291355646 93319 213 263 64 -7 +0 -12 -1 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 403 PAwOBA .375 → .282 (−93)K% 19.4% → 23.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.35%÷1.007×1.200——23.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.45%÷0.935×0.690—×0.9524.53%
HBP% /PA0.50%—×0.940—×0.9520.44%
Singles /BIP24.83%÷1.108×0.930×0.994×0.95219.72%
Doubles /BIP6.21%÷1.006×0.830×0.994×0.9524.85%
Triples /BIP0.69%÷0.900×0.970×0.994×0.9520.70%
Home runs /BIP7.24%÷1.003×0.700—×0.9524.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .375 → .282; ISO .231 → .163; BABIP .339 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 134 PAwOBA .364 → .321 (−43)K% 19.4% → 22.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.40%÷1.056×1.200——22.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.72%÷1.004×0.690—×1.0184.70%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP31.25%÷1.013×0.930×0.950×1.01827.75%
Doubles /BIP5.21%÷0.995×0.830×0.950×1.0184.20%
Triples /BIP1.04%÷1.096×0.970×0.950×1.0180.89%
Home runs /BIP4.17%÷0.888×0.840—×1.0184.01%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 119, K 111, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .364 → .321; ISO .156 → .145; BABIP .387 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 251 PAwOBA .254 → .234 (−19)K% 18.7% → 22.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.73%÷1.011×1.200——22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA1.99%÷0.980×0.690—×1.0331.45%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP26.80%÷1.005×0.930×1.014×1.03325.96%
Doubles /BIP4.12%÷1.038×0.830×1.014×1.0333.45%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.038×0.970×1.014×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP1.03%÷0.893×0.840—×1.0331.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 108, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .254 → .234; ISO .058 → .051; BABIP .309 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAErie SeaWolves · 116 PAwOBA .283 → .265 (−19)K% 18.1% → 22.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.10%÷0.999×1.220——22.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.45%÷1.007×0.700—×0.9982.39%
HBP% /PA0.86%—×0.850—×0.9980.73%
Singles /BIP29.21%÷1.016×0.970×1.050×0.99829.22%
Doubles /BIP5.62%÷0.974×0.860×1.050×0.9985.20%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.901×0.950×1.050×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.112×0.780—×0.9980.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .283 → .265; ISO .045 → .041; BABIP .344 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAErie SeaWolves · 449 PAwOBA .297 → .283 (−14)K% 11.8% → 14.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.80%÷0.973×1.220——14.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.01%÷1.059×0.700—×1.0122.68%
HBP% /PA1.34%—×0.850—×1.0121.15%
Singles /BIP27.42%÷1.020×0.970×1.031×1.01227.22%
Doubles /BIP4.43%÷0.944×0.860×1.031×1.0124.21%
Triples /BIP1.11%÷1.094×0.950×1.031×1.0121.00%
Home runs /BIP0.28%÷1.259×0.780—×1.0120.17%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .297 → .283; ISO .065 → .060; BABIP .326 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 33 PAwOBA .363 → .316 (−47)K% 9.1% → 13.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.09%÷0.995×1.420——12.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷1.138×0.750—×0.9880.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.930—×0.9880.00%
Singles /BIP30.00%÷1.012×0.920—×0.98826.94%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷0.918×0.960—×0.9886.89%
Triples /BIP3.33%÷1.039×0.810—×0.9882.57%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.747×0.880—×0.9880.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 249, 1B 102, 2B 84, 3B 108, K 99, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .363 → .316; ISO .121 → .105; BABIP .400 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAErie SeaWolves · 416 PAwOBA .255 → .230 (−25)K% 15.1% → 18.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.14%÷0.998×1.220——18.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.64%÷1.027×0.700—×1.0271.85%
HBP% /PA0.48%—×0.850—×1.0270.42%
Singles /BIP23.10%÷1.045×0.970×0.994×1.02721.89%
Doubles /BIP4.86%÷0.973×0.860×0.994×1.0274.39%
Triples /BIP0.30%÷1.127×0.950×0.994×1.0270.26%
Home runs /BIP1.22%÷1.095×0.780—×1.0270.89%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 125, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .255 → .230; ISO .077 → .064; BABIP .284 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAErie SeaWolves · 363 PAwOBA .260 → .251 (−9)K% 17.4% → 22.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.36%÷0.959×1.220——22.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.86%÷1.077×0.700—×1.0422.61%
HBP% /PA0.28%—×0.850—×1.0420.24%
Singles /BIP26.01%÷0.995×0.970×1.034×1.04227.30%
Doubles /BIP4.40%÷1.095×0.860×1.034×1.0423.72%
Triples /BIP0.73%÷1.074×0.950×1.034×1.0420.70%
Home runs /BIP0.37%÷1.100×0.780—×1.0420.27%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 99, 2B 119, 3B 115, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .260 → .251; ISO .057 → .048; BABIP .306 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .