Victor Juarez — OGILVIE

Victor Juarez P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 173 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%17.8%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	10	8	37	142	47	7	2	80%	3.7	22.5%	6.2%	16.3%	1.9%	2.21	3.03	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	10	8	37	142	47	7	2	80%	3.7	33.1%	4.9%	28.2%	1.4%	2.21	1.82	—
2022	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	21	21	103	434	100	33	15	100%	4.9	17.1%	9.0%	8.1%	4.7%	4.98	5.40	—
2022	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	21	21	103	434	100	33	15	100%	4.9	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	3.5%	4.98	4.01	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	20	20	92	417	94	35	16	100%	4.6	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	4.6%	6.38	5.37	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	20	20	92	417	94	35	16	100%	4.6	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	4.6%	6.38	5.37	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	20	20	92	417	94	35	16	100%	4.6	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.8%	6.38	4.46	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	22	21	111	470	113	34	19	95%	5.0	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	4.7%	4.30	5.14	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	22	21	111	470	113	34	19	95%	5.0	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	4.7%	4.30	5.14	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	22	21	111	470	113	34	19	95%	5.0	24.0%	7.2%	16.8%	4.0%	4.30	4.21	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	82	326	71	20	9	3%	2.2	18.2%	6.5%	11.6%	2.8%	3.53	3.95	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	82	326	71	20	9	3%	2.2	18.2%	6.5%	11.6%	2.8%	3.53	3.95	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	82	326	71	20	9	3%	2.2	21.8%	6.1%	15.6%	2.8%	3.53	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	39	1	58	291	53	28	6	3%	1.5	14.9%	9.5%	5.4%	2.3%	7.91	4.33	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	39	1	58	291	53	28	6	3%	1.5	14.9%	9.5%	5.4%	2.3%	7.91	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	COL	23	0	34	155	35	12	2	0%	1.5	22.6%	7.7%	14.8%	1.3%	4.46	2.88	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	COL	16	1	24	136	18	16	4	6%	1.5	13.2%	11.8%	1.5%	2.9%	12.93	5.09	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	COL	5	0	6	24	4	2	1	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.2%	10.6%	3.2%	4.65	4.65	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	64	315	57	30	7	—	—	18.2%	9.4%	8.7%	2.1%	7.62	4.36	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	98	0	102	432	82	30	14	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.51	+0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	99	0	104	438	85	30	14	0%	1.0	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	3.1%	4.47	4.44	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	99	0	104	438	87	30	14	0%	1.0	19.8%	6.9%	12.9%	3.1%	4.42	4.40	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	97	0	102	431	86	30	14	0%	1.1	19.9%	7.0%	12.8%	3.2%	4.43	4.44	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	94	0	99	418	83	30	14	0%	1.1	19.7%	7.2%	12.6%	3.3%	4.49	4.52	+0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	90	0	94	399	78	30	14	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.4%	12.1%	3.4%	4.59	4.65	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	85	0	89	375	72	29	14	0%	1.0	19.1%	7.7%	11.5%	3.6%	4.73	4.83	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	43	0	45	190	36	13	6	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.51	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	66	0	69	291	57	20	9	0%	1.0	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	3.1%	4.47	4.44	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	78	0	82	346	69	24	11	0%	1.1	19.8%	6.9%	12.9%	3.1%	4.42	4.40	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	83	0	87	367	73	26	12	0%	1.0	19.9%	7.0%	12.8%	3.2%	4.43	4.44	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	84	0	88	372	73	27	12	0%	1.0	19.7%	7.2%	12.6%	3.3%	4.49	4.52	+0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	82	0	86	363	71	27	12	0%	1.0	19.5%	7.4%	12.1%	3.4%	4.59	4.65	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	78	0	82	346	66	27	13	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.7%	11.5%	3.6%	4.73	4.83	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		514	0	540	2281	446	164	75	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.2%	12.4%	3.3%	4.52	4.17	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	61	28	0%	1.1	19.5%	7.2%	12.4%	3.3%	4.52	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		149	72	482	2080	368	176	80	48%	3.2	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.9%	4.99	4.80	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	30	200	863	153	73	33	48%	3.2	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.9%	4.99	4.80	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Juarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	17.8%	7.2%	3.2%	—	4.45	19.4%	12.5%	310	-0.20	—	—	—
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	87
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	87
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	87
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	86
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	86
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	86
Bryan Pope R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	23	SW	4.48	13.8%	6.1%	3.2%	.347	4.28	17.7%	7.3%	86	-0.20	3.96	148	85
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.11	18.0%	11.7%	324	+0.91	4.20	474	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	84
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	83
Micah Dallas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	15.1%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	4.23	18.2%	9.5%	152	-0.33	3.60	201	83
Josh DeGraaf R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	15.3%	7.4%	2.1%	.310	4.23	16.4%	9.0%	226	+0.33	3.90	320	83
Wilmer Rios R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	23	SW	4.95	16.3%	5.8%	4.5%	.265	5.25	16.2%	12.3%	80	+0.30	2.81	156	83
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	83
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	82
Kyle Smith R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	23	SW	5.05	14.7%	8.7%	3.8%	.326	3.31	15.2%	9.5%	76	-1.74	3.31	159	82
Keegan Yuhl R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	23	SW	3.47	16.6%	7.0%	1.6%	.289	3.97	15.4%	8.7%	144	+0.50	3.47	242	82
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Adam Leverett R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	23	SW	5.20	20.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.338	4.10	13.8%	4.8%	154	-1.10	3.41	401	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	95	19.4%	7.2%	1.26	4.53
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13