Victor Juarez — OGILVIE

Victor Juarez P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 173 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%17.8%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	10	8	37	142	47	7	2	80%	3.7	22.5%	6.2%	16.3%	1.9%	2.21	3.00	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	10	8	37	142	47	7	2	80%	3.7	33.1%	4.9%	28.2%	1.4%	2.21	1.82	—
2022	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	21	21	103	434	100	33	15	100%	4.9	17.1%	9.0%	8.1%	5.0%	4.98	5.55	—
2022	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	21	21	103	434	100	33	15	100%	4.9	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	3.5%	4.98	4.01	—
2023	20	A+	Spokane Indians	20	20	92	417	94	35	16	100%	4.6	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	4.4%	6.38	5.26	—
2023	20	A+	Spokane Indians	20	20	92	417	94	35	16	100%	4.6	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.8%	6.38	4.46	—
2024	21	A+	Spokane Indians	22	21	111	470	113	34	19	95%	5.0	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	4.3%	4.30	4.96	—
2024	21	A+	Spokane Indians	22	21	111	470	113	34	19	95%	5.0	24.0%	7.2%	16.8%	4.0%	4.30	4.21	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	37	1	82	326	71	20	9	3%	2.2	18.2%	6.5%	11.6%	2.4%	3.53	3.69	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	37	1	82	326	71	20	9	3%	2.2	21.8%	6.1%	15.6%	2.8%	3.53	3.53	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	22	1	32	158	28	14	5	5%	1.4	14.8%	9.4%	5.4%	3.6%	7.67	5.02	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	COL	59	0	62	263	47	19	8	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB	COL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	3.5%	4.81	4.81	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	COL	—	—	94	421	75	33	13	—	—	17.8%	7.7%	10.0%	3.1%	5.60	4.71	+0.6
2026 FULL	23	MLB	COL	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	3.5%	4.81	4.42	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	COL	61	0	64	269	51	19	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.43	+0.1
2028	25	MLB	COL	62	0	65	273	54	19	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	7.1%	12.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.2
2029	26	MLB	COL	62	0	65	273	55	20	8	0%	1.0	20.1%	7.2%	12.9%	3.0%	4.36	4.34	+0.2
2030	27	MLB	COL	61	0	64	269	54	20	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	7.3%	12.9%	3.1%	4.37	4.38	+0.2
2031	28	MLB	COL	59	0	62	261	52	19	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	3.2%	4.43	4.46	+0.1
2032	29	MLB	COL	56	0	59	249	49	19	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	3.3%	4.53	4.59	-0.0
2033	30	MLB	COL	53	0	55	234	45	19	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.0%	11.5%	3.5%	4.67	4.77	-0.1
2034	31	MLB	COL	49	0	52	218	42	18	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.3%	10.7%	3.7%	4.85	4.97	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	COL	27	0	28	118	22	8	4	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.5%	4.72	4.68	-0.0
2028	25	MLB	COL	41	0	43	182	36	13	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	7.1%	12.6%	3.5%	4.65	4.61	-0.0
2029	26	MLB	COL	49	0	51	215	43	15	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	7.2%	12.9%	3.5%	4.61	4.59	-0.0
2030	27	MLB	COL	51	0	54	228	46	17	8	0%	1.1	20.2%	7.3%	12.9%	3.5%	4.63	4.64	-0.1
2031	28	MLB	COL	52	0	55	232	47	17	8	0%	1.1	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	3.6%	4.69	4.72	-0.1
2032	29	MLB	COL	51	0	54	228	45	17	9	0%	1.1	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	3.8%	4.81	4.87	-0.2
2033	30	MLB	COL	49	0	51	215	42	17	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.0%	11.5%	4.0%	4.96	5.06	-0.3
2034	31	MLB	COL	46	0	48	203	39	17	9	0%	1.0	19.1%	8.3%	10.7%	4.3%	5.16	5.28	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			368	0	386	1629	321	123	61	0%	1.0	19.7%	7.5%	12.2%	3.7%	4.78	4.43	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—			190	0	200	844	166	64	32	0%	1.1	19.7%	7.5%	12.2%	3.7%	4.78	4.43	+2.3
Career	—			132	72	456	1947	348	163	76	55%	3.5	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	3.9%	4.80	4.81	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—			58	32	200	855	153	72	34	55%	3.5	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	3.9%	4.80	4.81	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Juarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	—	4.38	19.6%	12.5%	193	-0.17	—	—	—
Connor Johnstone R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	23	SW	4.49	15.7%	7.6%	3.2%	.272	4.58	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.09	3.90	319	89
Evan McKendry R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.40	18.7%	11.6%	324	+1.16	4.14	474	87
Shohei Tomioka R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	25	SW	4.06	18.9%	9.0%	2.6%	.311	4.48	17.3%	3.8%	141	+0.42	3.63	281	87
Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	23	SW	3.89	21.8%	8.6%	2.8%	.293	4.63	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.74	2.08	276	85
Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	85
Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	24	SW	4.02	16.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.277	3.65	19.4%	11.4%	83	-0.37	3.43	167	85
Yaisel Sierra R 2028 · 4.31 FIP	25	SW	4.31	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.01	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.30	3.01	176	84
Ryan Tapani R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	25	SW	3.89	19.0%	7.3%	2.7%	.331	5.46	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.57	3.89	141	84
Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	23	SW	3.92	17.9%	10.1%	1.9%	.309	4.78	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.86	3.92	188	83
John Matthews R 2026 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.67	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.21	4.40	213	83
Michael Santos R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	17.4%	9.1%	3.1%	.289	4.91	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.41	2.26	276	83
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	15.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.354	3.46	18.9%	9.4%	89	-1.45	3.06	165	82
Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	24	SW	4.29	17.9%	9.9%	2.6%	.262	5.23	16.8%	4.6%	91	+0.94	4.03	161	82
Bryan Pope R 2026 · 4.76 FIP	23	SW	4.76	13.8%	6.1%	3.8%	.347	4.16	17.7%	7.3%	86	-0.60	3.87	148	82
Adam Leverett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP	23	SW	5.08	20.6%	9.3%	4.6%	.338	4.11	13.8%	4.8%	154	-0.97	3.26	376	82
Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	23	SW	4.25	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.88	16.3%	8.9%	188	+0.63	4.17	257	82
Keegan Yuhl R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	23	SW	3.50	16.6%	7.0%	1.7%	.289	3.89	15.4%	8.7%	144	+0.39	3.50	242	82
Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.65 FIP	25	SW	4.65	17.1%	9.6%	3.2%	.289	3.44	20.0%	7.8%	45	-1.21	1.94	143	82
Steven Bruce R 2028 · 3.70 FIP	25	SW	3.70	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.62	15.0%	9.8%	94	-0.08	3.62	148	81
Ben Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP	23	SW	5.05	19.8%	9.4%	4.4%	.309	3.93	16.2%	7.7%	147	-1.12	3.71	361	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	61	19.5%	7.4%	1.23	4.50
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	8	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94