Victor Juarez — OGILVIE

Victor Juarez P Hartford Yard Goats

+0.6 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 173 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2029

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.3%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%12.2%

IP89

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2029

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rockies	10	8	37	142	47	7	2	22.5%	6.2%	1.9%	2.21	3.02	+0.8
2022	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	21	21	103	434	100	33	15	17.1%	9.0%	4.8%	4.98	5.41	-0.1
2023	20	A+	Spokane Indians	20	20	92	417	94	35	16	17.4%	9.7%	4.6%	6.38	5.39	-0.2
2024	21	A+	Spokane Indians	22	21	111	470	113	34	19	18.5%	8.3%	4.6%	4.30	5.12	+0.2
2025	22	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	37	1	82	326	71	20	9	18.2%	6.5%	3.0%	3.53	4.04	+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	4	0	4	17	4	1	1	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	COL	16	16	89	375	76	30	12	20.3%	8.1%	3.3%	4.58	4.58	+0.6
2026 Total	23	MLB	COL	—	—	93	392	80	31	13	20.4%	8.0%	3.4%	4.50	4.40	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	COL	19	19	107	452	95	35	14	21.1%	7.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.44	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	COL	22	22	120	508	109	39	16	21.5%	7.7%	3.2%	4.41	4.37	+1.3
2029	26	MLB	COL	23	23	127	538	117	41	17	21.8%	7.6%	3.2%	4.37	4.34	+1.4
2030	27	MLB	COL	24	24	130	551	120	42	17	21.8%	7.7%	3.2%	4.36	4.35	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	COL	24	24	130	551	120	42	18	21.7%	7.7%	3.2%	4.37	4.38	+1.4
2032	29	MLB	COL	23	23	128	538	116	42	17	21.6%	7.8%	3.2%	4.40	4.42	+1.3
2033	30	MLB	COL	22	22	124	522	112	41	17	21.4%	7.9%	3.3%	4.45	4.49	+1.1
2034	31	MLB	COL	22	22	119	504	107	40	17	21.2%	8.0%	3.4%	4.52	4.56	+1.0
2035	32	MLB	COL	21	21	115	484	101	39	17	20.9%	8.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.65	+0.8
2036	33	MLB	COL	20	20	109	462	95	39	16	20.6%	8.3%	3.5%	4.69	4.75	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	COL	19	19	104	439	89	37	16	20.2%	8.5%	3.6%	4.79	4.86	+0.5
2038	35	MLB	COL	18	18	98	413	82	36	16	19.8%	8.8%	3.8%	4.90	4.98	+0.3
2039	36	MLB	COL	17	17	92	386	75	35	15	19.4%	9.0%	3.9%	5.03	5.11	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			114	71	428	1806	329	149	75	18.2%	8.3%	4.2%	4.57	4.89	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—			53	33	200	845	154	70	35	18.2%	8.3%	4.2%	4.57	4.89	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Juarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	20.3%	8.1%	3.3%	—	4.38	21.5%	13.8%	355	-0.20	—	—	—
Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.61	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.41	3.05	395	95
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	94
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	92
James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.35	17.5%	10.4%	61	+0.12	3.67	167	92
Kaleb Fontenot R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.78	3.71	155	92
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	91
Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	5.37	11.6%	2.7%	93	+1.85	3.52	175	91
Seth Shuman R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.45	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.45	3.67	306	91
Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.76	18.2%	12.0%	120	+0.10	3.66	229	91
Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP-	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	3.89	14.2%	7.6%	150	-0.19	3.89	262	90
Luis Santos R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	24	SP-	4.51	17.0%	6.5%	3.7%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.39	3.50	472	90
Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	90
Will Ethridge R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.50	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.39	3.57	227	90
Reid Johnston R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	19.4%	6.1%	2.7%	.297	5.02	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.28	3.74	204	90
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	89
Tate Scioneaux R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP-	3.70	19.8%	7.9%	2.3%	.236	4.02	19.6%	13.5%	184	+0.32	3.11	321	89
Nick Dean R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.99	21.6%	13.8%	65	+0.16	3.83	155	89
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	89
Ryan Tapani R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP-	3.85	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.58	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.73	3.85	141	89
Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.3	$12M	+$10M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.1	$11M	+$7M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.0	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$14M		$71M	+$57M