Hansel Rincon
P
Hudson Valley Renegades
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%23.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 15 | 11 | 53 | 211 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 73% | 3.5 | 17.7% | 1.8% | 15.9% | 2.3% | 3.42 | 3.08 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs 1 | 15 | 11 | 53 | 211 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 73% | 3.5 | 26.1% | 1.4% | 24.6% | 1.4% | 3.42 | 1.92 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | 10 | 6 | 37 | 165 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 3.7 | 11.1% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 7.61 | 4.20 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | 10 | 6 | 37 | 165 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 3.7 | 16.4% | 3.0% | 13.3% | 1.8% | 7.61 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 36 | 158 | 37 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 16.9% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 1.2% | 3.53 | 3.73 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 36 | 158 | 37 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 2.0 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 0.6% | 3.53 | 2.74 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 25 | 0 | 27 | 123 | 45 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.2% | 15.9% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 3.67 | 2.73 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYY | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.32 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 47 | 207 | 65 | 25 | 3 | — | — | 31.2% | 12.0% | 19.2% | 1.2% | 3.94 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 3.94 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 0 | 20 | 87 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.21 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 67 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 17 | 152 | 657 | 117 | 47 | 11 | 25% | 2.2 | 17.8% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 1.7% | 4.50 | 3.45 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 22 | 200 | 864 | 154 | 62 | 15 | 25% | 2.2 | 17.8% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 1.7% | 4.50 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hansel Rincon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.21 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 85 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 85 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 85 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.68 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +1.00 | 3.68 | 256 | 84 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 84 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.41 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.38 | 4.03 | 130 | 83 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 83 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 25.2% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .291 | 4.12 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 117 | +0.02 | 2.79 | 229 | 83 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 83 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 83 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 83 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 83 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 82 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 82 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 82 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 82 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 82 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 82 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 82 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.37 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .245 | 4.44 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 158 | +1.07 | 2.76 | 198 | 82 |