Hansel Rincon — OGILVIE

Hansel Rincon P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%22.8%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	15	11	53	211	55	3	3	73%	3.5	17.7%	1.8%	15.9%	2.1%	3.42	3.00	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	15	11	53	211	55	3	3	73%	3.5	26.1%	1.4%	24.6%	1.4%	3.42	1.92	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	10	6	37	165	27	5	3	60%	3.7	11.1%	3.8%	7.3%	2.7%	7.61	4.11	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Black	10	6	37	165	27	5	3	60%	3.7	16.4%	3.0%	13.3%	1.8%	7.61	3.10	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	36	158	37	16	1	0%	2.0	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	1.1%	3.53	3.67	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	36	158	37	16	1	0%	2.0	16.9%	11.2%	5.7%	1.1%	3.53	3.67	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	36	158	37	16	1	0%	2.0	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	0.6%	3.53	2.74	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	44	200	61	23	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	13.2%	10.3%	1.9%	3.48	3.82	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	44	200	61	23	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	13.2%	10.3%	1.9%	3.48	3.82	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYY	40	0	44	200	61	23	3	0%	1.1	30.5%	11.5%	19.0%	1.5%	3.48	2.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	42	0	44	187	44	17	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.36	4.31	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	18	0	19	80	19	8	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.36	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	80	19	8	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.36	3.93	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	84	21	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.36	3.93	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		83	17	169	734	129	54	14	20%	2.0	17.6%	7.4%	10.3%	2.0%	4.37	3.62	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	20	200	869	153	64	17	20%	2.0	17.6%	7.4%	10.3%	2.0%	4.37	3.62	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hansel Rincon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.8%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.31	23.4%	14.1%	44	-0.13	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	87
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	85
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	85
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	85
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	85
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	85
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	84
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	84
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	84
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	84
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	84
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	83
Parker Curry R 2017 · 3.73 FIP	23	SU	3.73	22.5%	8.2%	2.7%	.341	4.62	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.89	3.73	256	83
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	23.2%	9.5%	1.15	4.38
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97