Luis Tejeda (P, Visalia Rawhide) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis Tejeda P Visalia Rawhide

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 170 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%21.3%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	17	0	25	121	21	9	0	0%	1.5	11.8%	9.3%	2.5%	0.0%	4.26	3.28	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	17	0	25	121	21	9	0	0%	1.5	17.4%	7.4%	9.9%	0.0%	4.26	2.51	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	37	178	28	20	4	0%	1.5	10.7%	13.5%	-2.8%	3.0%	5.59	5.53	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	37	178	28	20	4	0%	1.5	15.7%	11.2%	4.5%	2.2%	5.59	4.61	—
2023	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	35	0	67	313	69	42	9	0%	1.9	16.3%	15.8%	0.5%	3.7%	6.07	5.77	—
2023	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	35	0	67	313	69	42	9	0%	1.9	16.3%	15.8%	0.5%	3.7%	6.07	5.77	—
2023	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	35	0	67	313	69	42	9	0%	1.9	22.0%	13.4%	8.6%	2.9%	6.07	4.67	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	12.7%	8.6%	3.0%	4.94	4.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	44	0	47	197	43	24	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	3.0%	4.87	4.86	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	44	0	46	194	42	24	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.86	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	42	0	45	188	41	23	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.2%	4.87	4.91	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	3.0%	4.87	4.86	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	28	0	29	122	27	15	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.86	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	31	0	33	139	30	17	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.2%	4.87	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	0	82	348	76	42	11	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	3.1%	4.86	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	102	27	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	3.1%	4.86	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		77	0	129	612	84	85	17	0%	1.7	13.8%	13.9%	-0.1%	2.8%	5.58	5.21	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	0	200	949	131	132	26	0%	1.7	13.8%	13.9%	-0.1%	2.8%	5.58	5.21	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Tejeda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	21.3%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.88	21.8%	9.6%	137	-0.06	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	93
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	92
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	90
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	89
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	89
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	88
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	88
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	88
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	87
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	87
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	86
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	86
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	46	21.7%	12.3%	1.19	4.88
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43