Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 37 | 0 | 63 | 269 | 86 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.7% | 14.9% | 8.7% | 1.1% | 3.86 | 3.60 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 37 | 0 | 63 | 269 | 86 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 32.0% | 12.6% | 19.3% | 0.7% | 3.86 | 2.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 23 | 0 | 31 | 140 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.5% | 16.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.58 | 5.76 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 92 | 53 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.3% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.70 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 121 | 520 | 130 | 74 | 15 | — | — | 25.1% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.97 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 96 | 48 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.45 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 98 | 44 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.30 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 98 | 43 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 96 | 42 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 65 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 78 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.28 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 74 | 0 | 78 | 329 | 82 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 242 | 0 | 254 | 1071 | 266 | 120 | 30 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 3.94 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 210 | 95 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 94 | 409 | 95 | 63 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.3% | 15.4% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 4.34 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 0 | 200 | 873 | 203 | 135 | 20 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.3% | 15.4% | 7.8% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Vicarte Domingo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 24.3% | 13.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.34 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 279 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 87 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 87 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 86 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 86 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 85 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 108 | +0.29 | 3.58 | 169 | 85 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.31 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.58 | 3.73 | 203 | 85 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 84 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 84 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 84 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 146 | 84 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 84 |
| Alfredo Zarraga R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 25.1% | 13.9% | 2.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 138 | 84 |
| Jesen Therrien R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.94 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 2.4% | .310 | 3.39 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.55 | 2.70 | 192 | 84 |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 84 |
| Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .248 | 4.32 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.09 | 3.40 | 330 | 84 |
| Logan VanWey R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 83 |
| Abel De Los Santos R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.6% | 12.1% | 1.7% | .273 | 4.00 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 37 | +0.25 | 3.75 | 152 | 83 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.91 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 3.2% | .278 | 3.58 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 53 | -1.33 | 3.58 | 104 | 83 |
| Akeel Morris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.63 | 26.7% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .311 | 4.35 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 107 | +0.72 | 2.94 | 305 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 92 | 24.7% | 11.8% | 1.07 | 4.45 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |