Roelmy Garcia prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Roelmy Garcia P FCL Pirates

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 172 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%22.9%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	12	10	25	126	39	32	2	83%	2.1	21.0%	31.7%	-10.7%	2.5%	4.74	6.70	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	12	10	25	126	39	32	2	83%	2.1	31.0%	25.4%	5.6%	1.6%	4.74	4.88	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	18	0	16	99	25	31	0	0%	0.9	17.2%	39.1%	-22.0%	0.0%	11.57	6.61	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	18	0	16	99	25	31	0	0%	0.9	25.3%	31.3%	-6.1%	0.0%	11.57	5.73	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	18	1	20	96	21	21	2	6%	1.1	14.9%	27.3%	-12.5%	3.2%	5.03	7.04	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	18	1	20	96	21	21	2	6%	1.1	14.9%	27.3%	-12.5%	3.2%	5.03	7.04	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	18	1	20	96	21	21	2	6%	1.1	21.9%	21.9%	0.0%	2.1%	5.03	5.49	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	13.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.94	4.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	19	0	20	84	20	10	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.67	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.30	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		48	11	61	321	58	105	6	23%	1.3	18.0%	32.7%	-14.7%	1.9%	6.68	6.77	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	36	200	1058	191	346	20	23%	1.3	18.0%	32.7%	-14.7%	1.9%	6.68	6.77	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roelmy Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	22.9%	13.8%	3.0%	—	4.67	23.5%	11.3%	20	-0.27	—	—	—
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	82
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	81
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	81
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	81
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	80
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	80
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	80
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	80
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	80
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	80
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	80
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	79
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	79
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	79
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	79
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	79
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	79