Philip Abner
P
Reno Aces
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 24
LHP
6'1" / 230 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.07
FIP4.07
xFIP5.39
SIERA4.54
K%23.0%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%15.1%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5555
FB+0.6 (73%)
CU (1%)
SL-1.3 (25%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 4 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 26 | 2 | 34 | 136 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 1.85 | 2.39 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58 | 0 | 62 | 253 | 75 | 16 | 5 | 23.1% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 3.18 | 3.12 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 18 | — | 18 | 74 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 22 | 93 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 4.03 | 3.22 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 23.6% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 2 | 108 | 437 | 96 | 33 | 6 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 1.3% | 2.93 | 2.89 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 4 | 200 | 812 | 178 | 61 | 11 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 1.3% | 2.93 | 2.89 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Philip Abner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.05 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 133 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.09 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.17 | 3.48 | 311 | 88 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 2.4% | .294 | 4.77 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 130 | +1.63 | 3.14 | 199 | 85 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.21 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.29 | 2.24 | 237 | 83 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 82 |
| Jake Palisch L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.34 | 13.2% | 6.1% | 155 | +0.14 | 3.90 | 198 | 82 |
| Rodolfo Aguilar L 2028 · 2.92 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.92 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 1.2% | .253 | 3.59 | 15.8% | 2.7% | 65 | +0.67 | 2.92 | 115 | 81 |
| Reagan Todd L 2025 · 2.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 2.89 | 26.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.21 | 26.1% | 15.5% | 90 | +1.32 | 2.89 | 122 | 81 |
| Tyler Webb L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .324 | 3.32 | 24.3% | 17.3% | 185 | -0.41 | 3.10 | 337 | 81 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 81 |
| Ian Seymour L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .224 | 3.07 | 24.7% | 17.6% | 288 | -0.07 | 2.90 | 362 | 80 |
| Darien Núñez L 2027 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.63 | 2.48 | 122 | 80 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 79 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2029 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 79 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.12 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .322 | 3.79 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 67 | +0.67 | 3.01 | 176 | 78 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 78 |
| Wesley Moore L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.07 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .292 | 4.30 | 15.0% | -0.7% | 30 | +0.23 | 3.66 | 111 | 77 |
| Kyle Nelson L 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.94 | 27.8% | 8.4% | 3.9% | .241 | 3.38 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 63 | -0.56 | 0.90 | 214 | 77 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 77 |
| Josh Osich L 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .241 | 4.78 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 315 | 77 |
| David Rollins L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.87 | 17.8% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .391 | 4.73 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 107 | +0.86 | 3.60 | 132 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $10M | +$5M | ||