Philip Abner — OGILVIE

Philip Abner P Sacramento River Cats

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8694vR 102

ERA3.64

FIP3.64

K%22.3%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%15.1%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.6

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p109.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.371

FB+0.6 (73%)

CU (1%)

SL-1.3 (25%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	4	0	7	29	6	4	0	0%	1.7	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	3.10	—
2023	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	4	0	7	29	6	4	0	0%	1.7	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	3.10	—
2023	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	4	0	7	29	6	4	0	0%	1.7	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	3.10	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	2	34	136	38	10	0	8%	1.3	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	0.0%	1.85	2.39	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	2	34	136	38	10	0	8%	1.3	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	0.0%	1.85	2.39	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	2	34	136	38	10	0	8%	1.3	27.9%	7.4%	20.6%	0.0%	1.85	1.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	0	62	253	75	16	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	6.1%	17.0%	2.2%	3.18	3.13	+1.1
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	0	62	253	75	16	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	6.1%	17.0%	2.2%	3.18	3.13	+1.1
2025	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	58	0	62	253	75	16	5	0%	1.1	29.6%	6.3%	23.3%	2.0%	3.18	2.51	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	0	21	92	12	12	2	0%	1.4	13.0%	13.0%	0.0%	2.2%	5.14	4.91	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	46	0	55	239	50	22	3	0%	1.2	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	1.4%	4.75	3.44	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	46	0	55	239	50	22	3	0%	1.2	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	1.4%	4.75	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	SF	36	0	38	165	43	13	1	0%	1.0	26.1%	7.9%	18.2%	0.6%	4.54	2.23	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	SF	10	0	17	74	7	9	2	0%	1.7	9.5%	12.2%	-2.7%	2.7%	5.19	5.33	-0.2
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	SF	10	0	17	74	7	9	2	0%	1.7	9.5%	12.2%	-2.7%	2.7%	5.19	5.33	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SF	2	0	3	11	2	1	0	0%	1.3	22.3%	7.3%	15.1%	2.7%	3.64	3.64	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	SF	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	22.3%	7.3%	15.1%	2.7%	3.64	3.64	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	58	250	52	23	3	—	—	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	1.3%	4.70	3.45	+0.8
FULL	24	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	20	84	52	23	3	—	—	62.3%	27.1%	35.2%	3.9%	13.57	3.42	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	54	0	57	240	52	19	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	2.8%	4.20	4.17	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	54	0	57	240	53	19	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	2.8%	4.18	4.16	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	53	0	56	236	52	19	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.20	4.21	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	51	0	54	228	50	18	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	7.9%	13.8%	2.8%	4.20	4.17	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	51	0	54	228	50	18	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	2.8%	4.18	4.16	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	50	0	53	224	49	18	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.20	4.21	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	0	185	783	164	67	21	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.6%	12.4%	2.7%	4.29	3.92	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	848	178	73	23	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.6%	12.4%	2.7%	4.29	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		134	2	158	657	136	51	9	1%	1.2	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	1.3%	3.53	3.09	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	3	200	832	172	65	11	1%	1.2	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	1.3%	3.53	3.09	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Philip Abner (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.87	24.0%	7.0%	2.8%	—	4.18	22.0%	14.0%	170	+0.31	—	—	—
Tyler Webb L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	25	SU	3.80	21.6%	6.9%	3.0%	.324	3.31	24.3%	17.3%	185	-0.49	3.10	337	84
Kyle Crockett L 2016 · 2.87 FIP	24	SU	2.87	19.9%	7.2%	1.0%	.305	2.72	21.4%	16.4%	87	-0.15	2.50	179	78
David Rollins L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	25	SU	3.78	17.8%	5.9%	2.6%	.391	4.76	16.9%	10.5%	107	+0.98	3.59	132	77
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.03	21.2%	11.6%	184	-0.26	3.43	311	77
Dylan Lee L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	19.5%	8.5%	3.4%	.277	2.62	29.0%	25.0%	113	-1.79	1.96	547	76
Steven Okert L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	24	SU	4.17	22.5%	10.9%	2.9%	.331	3.32	23.0%	16.9%	145	-0.85	2.49	605	76
Luis Avilán L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	22.3%	5.9%	2.6%	.276	2.70	26.1%	17.6%	145	-0.70	2.62	256	76
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	76
Joe Mantiply L 2015 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	16.1%	5.5%	2.0%	.278	2.49	21.0%	15.0%	121	-1.03	2.07	485	76
Jake Palisch L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	21.0%	8.2%	3.4%	.304	4.64	11.2%	3.0%	274	+0.44	3.88	317	76
Chris O'Grady L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SU	3.81	19.4%	5.6%	3.0%	.276	3.90	18.4%	10.9%	183	+0.09	3.50	232	76
Kirby Snead L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	20.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.318	3.10	24.6%	15.6%	98	-0.93	2.12	388	75
Sammy Peralta L 2022 · 3.58 FIP	24	SU	3.58	23.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.300	3.94	19.3%	12.3%	236	+0.36	3.56	410	75
Brennan Bernardino L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	17.7%	10.4%	2.2%	.326	3.74	21.8%	13.0%	94	-0.40	2.51	465	75
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	74
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	74
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2015 · 2.93 FIP	26	SU	2.93	22.6%	8.3%	1.3%	.253	3.60	15.8%	2.7%	65	+0.67	2.93	115	74
Trey Jeans L 2019 · 2.74 FIP	23	SU	2.74	23.9%	6.6%	1.5%	.345	5.15	22.7%	7.8%	88	+2.41	2.74	111	74
Haylen Green L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	16.9%	8.1%	2.4%	.291	4.09	18.6%	7.8%	49	+0.07	4.02	104	73
Billy Strode L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	17.6%	8.8%	1.7%	.306	2.85	16.0%	7.3%	47	-0.79	2.53	155	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	22.3%	7.8%	1.09	4.14
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38