Dylan Lee

P Atlanta Braves

Age 32 LHP 6'3" / 214 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	54	63	2.01	2.62	32.0%	5.2%	1.5	K 31.7% · BB 5.4% · FIP 2.71
2025	30	MLBATL	74	68	3.29	3.92	28.6%	4.9%	0.5
2026	31	MLBATL	71	67	3.09	2.10	29.4%	6.1%	2.0
2027PROJ	32	MLBATL	58	61	3.02	3.12	29.7%	5.1%	1.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBATL	50	52	3.25	3.40	28.8%	5.6%	0.7
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBATL	40	42	3.52	3.70	27.9%	6.1%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.872First FA2029

2027Arb-2$5M2028Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%89

FB Velo33

Form5.40 ERA (proj 3.02) · K 21.0% (proj 29.7%) · BB 11.1% (proj 5.1%) ▼▼ last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

CompsMatt Thornton (age 32) · Pedro Feliciano (age 32) · Ricardo Rincon (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6775vR 83

ERA3.02

FIP3.12

K%29.7%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%24.6%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL6060

CMD7070

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p9035.7%

p8929.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.252

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.872 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+1.1	$9M	+$4M
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	4	0	6	24	6	2	0	0%	1.5	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	2.04	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	4	0	6	24	6	2	0	0%	1.5	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	2.10	—
2017	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	19	19	98	416	73	23	13	100%	5.2	13.0%	6.5%	6.5%	3.5%	4.85	4.74	—
2017	22	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	19	19	98	416	73	23	13	100%	5.2	17.5%	5.5%	12.0%	3.1%	4.85	4.04	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	62	244	63	21	1	0%	1.4	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	0.6%	1.60	2.86	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	62	244	63	21	1	0%	1.4	25.8%	8.6%	17.2%	0.4%	1.60	2.29	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	59	241	56	19	7	0%	1.3	19.5%	8.5%	11.0%	3.4%	2.91	4.41	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	59	241	56	19	7	0%	1.3	23.2%	7.9%	15.4%	2.9%	2.91	3.71	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	184	57	6	5	0%	1.3	27.2%	3.6%	23.6%	2.5%	1.85	2.64	+1.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	49	184	57	6	5	0%	1.3	31.0%	3.3%	27.7%	2.7%	1.85	2.46	+1.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	66	262	82	11	7	0%	1.1	30.2%	4.2%	26.0%	2.8%	2.17	2.60	+1.6
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	66	262	82	11	7	0%	1.1	31.3%	4.2%	27.1%	2.7%	2.17	2.50	+1.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	31	131	28	11	7	3%	1.0	23.8%	7.9%	15.8%	4.0%	4.65	4.27	+0.1
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	31	131	28	11	7	3%	1.0	21.4%	8.4%	13.0%	5.3%	4.65	5.29	-0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	250	80	13	7	0%	1.2	31.7%	5.4%	26.2%	2.9%	2.01	2.71	+1.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	250	80	13	7	0%	1.2	31.7%	5.4%	26.2%	2.9%	2.01	2.71	+1.4
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	63	250	80	13	7	0%	1.2	32.0%	5.2%	26.8%	2.8%	2.01	2.62	+1.5
2025	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	74	0	68	266	76	13	13	0%	0.9	28.6%	4.9%	23.7%	4.9%	3.29	3.99	+0.5
2025	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	74	0	68	266	76	13	13	0%	0.9	28.6%	4.9%	23.7%	4.9%	3.29	3.99	+0.5
2025	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	74	0	68	266	76	13	13	0%	0.9	28.6%	4.9%	23.7%	4.9%	3.29	3.92	+0.5
2026	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	71	0	67	262	77	16	3	0%	0.9	29.4%	6.1%	23.3%	1.1%	3.09	2.02	+2.0
2026	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	71	0	67	262	77	16	3	0%	0.9	29.4%	6.1%	23.3%	1.1%	3.09	2.02	+2.0
2026	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	71	0	67	262	77	16	3	0%	0.9	29.4%	6.1%	23.3%	1.1%	3.09	2.10	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			269	1	271	1079	315	59	33	0%	1.0	29.2%	5.5%	23.7%	3.1%	2.89	3.01	+5.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	ATL	58	0	61	258	76	13	7	0%	1.1	29.7%	5.1%	24.6%	2.7%	3.02	3.12	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	52	0	55	233	67	13	7	0%	1.1	28.8%	5.6%	23.3%	3.0%	3.25	3.40	+0.8
2029	34	MLB MLE	ATL	45	0	47	198	55	12	7	0%	1.0	27.9%	6.1%	21.9%	3.3%	3.52	3.70	+0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	50	0	52	220	63	12	7	0%	1.0	28.8%	5.6%	23.3%	3.0%	3.25	3.40	+0.7
2029	34	MLB CTX	ATL	40	0	42	177	50	11	6	0%	1.1	27.9%	6.1%	21.9%	3.3%	3.52	3.70	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		359	1	366	1479	429	82	46	0%	1.0	29.0%	5.6%	23.4%	3.1%	3.01	3.05	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	1	200	808	234	45	25	0%	1.0	29.0%	5.6%	23.4%	3.1%	3.01	3.05	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		439	20	569	2280	551	144	65	5%	1.3	24.2%	6.3%	17.9%	2.8%	2.99	3.41	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	7	200	801	194	50	23	5%	1.3	24.2%	6.3%	17.9%	2.8%	2.99	3.41	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 7 IPFIP 8.73 → 9.41 (+0.68)K% 13.3% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.33%	—	×0.860	11.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	10.00%	÷0.984	×1.100	11.17%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 8.73 → 9.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 16 IPFIP 2.13 → 2.75 (+0.62)K% 37.7% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.70%	—	×0.880	33.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.28%	—	×1.050	3.44%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷0.981	×1.100	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.13 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 47 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.64 (+0.46)K% 30.9% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.86%	—	×0.880	27.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.43%	—	×1.050	3.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷1.001	×1.100	2.51%

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 38 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.73 (+0.93)K% 22.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.810	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.918	×1.200	3.63%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 21 IPFIP 3.62 → 3.92 (+0.30)K% 24.7% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.74%	—	×0.880	21.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.22%	—	×1.050	7.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.100	×1.100	3.09%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 31 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.74 (+0.78)K% 20.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.49%	—	×0.770	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.02%	—	×1.150	10.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.82%	÷0.850	×1.250	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 16 IPFIP 2.44 → 2.79 (+0.36)K% 27.1% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.14%	—	×0.880	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.86%	—	×1.050	13.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.952	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.44 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 15 IPFIP 0.26 → 0.87 (+0.61)K% 36.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.54%	—	×0.810	29.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.92%	—	×1.100	2.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.041	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.26 → 0.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Lee (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.12	29.7%	5.1%	2.7%	—	3.54	28.4%	22.6%	102	+0.42	—	—	—
Matt Thornton L 2009 · 2.30 FIP	32	SU	2.30	29.9%	6.2%	1.7%	.293	2.35	25.8%	20.1%	185	+0.05	1.71	663	80
Pedro Feliciano L 2009 · 3.36 FIP	32	SU	3.36	24.4%	5.8%	2.9%	.272	2.69	20.0%	11.4%	63	-0.67	2.69	378	70
Ricardo Rincon L 2002 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	22.1%	4.5%	1.8%	.270	4.19	17.7%	7.4%	137	+1.39	2.72	436	68
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	61
Caleb Thielbar L 2019 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	25.9%	5.3%	2.7%	.337	2.71	30.2%	22.6%	143	-0.34	2.22	603	61
Jeff Ibarra L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	31	SU	2.85	20.6%	3.4%	1.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	101	60
George Sherrill L 2009 · 2.95 FIP	32	SU	2.95	21.6%	7.1%	1.4%	.249	3.79	19.7%	10.4%	72	+0.84	2.74	323	59
Mike Zagurski L 2017 · 2.94 FIP	34	SU	2.94	31.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.294	3.12	30.4%	21.1%	45	+0.18	2.94	120	58
Brooks Raley L 2020 · 3.31 FIP	32	SU	3.31	32.1%	7.1%	3.7%	.208	2.82	28.4%	20.4%	157	-0.49	1.74	294	57
Nick Ramirez L 2022 · 3.12 FIP	32	SU	3.12	20.8%	6.6%	1.7%	.294	3.19	16.3%	10.8%	113	+0.07	2.91	478	57
Cam Booser L 2024 · 3.11 FIP	32	SU	3.11	26.2%	8.0%	2.2%	.338	3.94	27.0%	19.2%	107	+0.83	2.76	314	55
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	55
Joey Eischen L 2002 · 2.13 FIP	32	SU	2.13	23.5%	6.0%	0.5%	.276	3.54	18.6%	12.2%	108	+1.41	2.13	294	54
John Bale L 2007 · 2.49 FIP	33	SU	2.49	23.5%	8.4%	0.6%	.364	3.78	15.2%	6.5%	55	+1.29	2.49	168	53
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	52
Brady Feigl L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	23.7%	4.7%	4.4%	.312	3.70	22.2%	14.9%	14	-0.42	2.69	212	52
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	51
Randy Flores L 2007 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	18.6%	5.9%	0.8%	.365	4.78	16.1%	6.0%	69	+2.06	2.51	250	50
Clay Rapada L 2012 · 3.00 FIP	31	SU	3.00	24.5%	10.3%	1.2%	.273	3.84	14.3%	6.3%	44	+0.84	3.00	120	50
Mike Myers L 2001 · 3.22 FIP	32	SU	3.22	21.3%	10.1%	1.2%	.263	4.20	15.7%	5.5%	116	+0.98	3.22	533	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	54	29.1%	5.9%	1.17	3.02
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.7	56	29.6%	6.6%	1.18	3.49
Sean Doolittle ('22)	2.3	56	29.0%	5.7%	0.96	3.20
Chad Green ('25)	2.5	62	30.0%	6.4%	1.42	3.43
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*