Dylan Lee
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 31
LHP
6'3" / 214 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 4454vR 63
ERA2.42
FIP2.62
K%31.7%
BB%4.5%
K-BB%27.1%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p9038.4%
K%
p9034.0%
xwOBA vs
p900.211
FB+2.8 (29%)
SL+1.0 (54%)
CH (17%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 4 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 2.04 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 4 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 19 | 19 | 98 | 416 | 73 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 13.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.50 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 19 | 19 | 98 | 416 | 73 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.5% | 5.5% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.04 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 62 | 244 | 63 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 0.7% | 1.60 | 2.93 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 62 | 244 | 63 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 0.4% | 1.60 | 2.29 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 56 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 2.91 | 4.46 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 56 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 2.91 | 3.71 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 49 | 184 | 57 | 6 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.2% | 3.6% | 23.6% | 2.5% | 1.85 | 2.64 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 49 | 184 | 57 | 6 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.0% | 3.3% | 27.7% | 2.7% | 1.85 | 2.46 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 66 | 262 | 82 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.2% | 4.2% | 26.0% | 2.8% | 2.17 | 2.61 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 66 | 262 | 82 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.3% | 4.2% | 27.1% | 2.7% | 2.17 | 2.50 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 31 | 131 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 3% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 15.8% | 4.0% | 4.65 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 31 | 131 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 3% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 4.65 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 63 | 250 | 80 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.7% | 5.4% | 26.2% | 2.9% | 2.01 | 2.71 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 63 | 250 | 80 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.0% | 5.2% | 26.8% | 2.8% | 2.01 | 2.62 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 74 | 0 | 68 | 266 | 76 | 13 | 13 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.6% | 4.9% | 23.7% | 4.9% | 3.29 | 3.99 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 74 | 0 | 68 | 266 | 76 | 13 | 13 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.6% | 4.9% | 23.7% | 4.9% | 3.29 | 3.92 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 44 | 0 | 43 | 156 | 53 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.0% | 4.5% | 29.5% | 0.6% | 1.47 | 1.15 | +1.7 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 4.5% | 27.1% | 3.0% | 2.42 | 2.62 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 4.5% | 27.1% | 3.0% | 2.42 | 2.62 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 58 | 218 | 73 | 10 | 3 | — | — | 33.3% | 4.5% | 28.8% | 1.3% | 1.71 | 1.53 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 58 | 244 | 73 | 10 | 3 | — | — | 29.8% | 4.0% | 25.8% | 1.2% | 1.71 | 1.73 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 68 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.3% | 4.9% | 25.3% | 3.3% | 3.18 | 3.36 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 61 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 5.4% | 24.0% | 3.6% | 3.46 | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 54 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 5.9% | 22.6% | 3.9% | 3.75 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 65 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.3% | 4.9% | 25.3% | 3.3% | 3.18 | 3.36 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 58 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.4% | 5.4% | 24.0% | 3.6% | 3.46 | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 48 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 5.9% | 22.6% | 3.9% | 3.75 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 387 | 1 | 400 | 1616 | 482 | 84 | 54 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.8% | 5.2% | 24.6% | 3.3% | 2.87 | 3.06 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 1 | 200 | 809 | 241 | 42 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.8% | 5.2% | 24.6% | 3.3% | 2.87 | 3.06 | +5.5 | ||
| Career | — | 412 | 20 | 545 | 2174 | 527 | 135 | 61 | 5% | 1.3 | 24.2% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 2.86 | 3.39 | +12.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 7 | 200 | 798 | 193 | 49 | 22 | 5% | 1.3 | 24.2% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 2.86 | 3.39 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Lee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.65 | 29.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | — | 3.63 | 29.4% | 24.1% | 147 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Tony Sipp L 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 71 |
| Brooks Raley L 2027 · 3.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.14 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .208 | 2.79 | 28.4% | 20.4% | 157 | -0.35 | 1.74 | 238 | 68 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2027 · 2.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.73 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.67 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +0.94 | 2.72 | 166 | 66 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 63 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.90 | 26.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | .315 | 2.68 | 26.9% | 20.1% | 93 | -0.22 | 2.46 | 483 | 63 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .353 | 3.52 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | -0.33 | 3.44 | 152 | 63 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 23.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | .314 | 5.45 | 12.1% | -0.6% | 33 | +2.37 | 1.96 | 191 | 61 |
| Joe Mantiply L 2026 · 2.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.59 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 3.62 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 148 | +1.03 | 2.05 | 478 | 57 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.95 | 20.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 101 | 57 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.14 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 455 | 57 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2028 · 2.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.78 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.16 | 1.56 | 219 | 56 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 56 |
| Tyler Lyons L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.53 | 27.2% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 376 | 55 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 55 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.72 | 2.22 | 405 | 55 |
| Andrew Chafin L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.79 | 24.1% | 6.8% | 1.6% | .228 | 3.32 | 28.1% | 17.7% | 165 | +0.53 | 2.42 | 531 | 54 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 54 |
| Aaron Loup L 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .364 | 2.51 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.69 | 2.07 | 363 | 52 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 51 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 2.74 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.74 | 19.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | .278 | 3.09 | 27.2% | 20.5% | 162 | +0.35 | 2.22 | 487 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 29.5% | 5.1% | 1.41 | 3.45 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |
| Shawn Kelley ('19) | 5 | 46 | 27.6% | 6.2% | 1.71 | 3.65 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Richard Rodríguez ('21) | 4 | 56 | 25.0% | 6.3% | 1.21 | 3.00 |