Dylan Lee — OGILVIE

Dylan Lee P Atlanta Braves

Age 31 LHP 6'3" / 214 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6573vR 81

ERA2.95

FIP3.14

K%30.2%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%24.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL6060

CMD7070

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p9036.3%

p9030.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.244

FB+2.8 (32%)

SL+1.0 (52%)

CH (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.872 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.6M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.2M		$5M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	4	0	6	24	6	2	0	0%	1.5	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	2.04	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	4	0	6	24	6	2	0	0%	1.5	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	2.10	—
2017	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	19	19	98	416	73	23	13	100%	5.2	13.0%	6.5%	6.5%	3.5%	4.85	4.74	—
2017	22	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	19	19	98	416	73	23	13	100%	5.2	17.5%	5.5%	12.0%	3.1%	4.85	4.04	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	62	244	63	21	1	0%	1.4	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	0.6%	1.60	2.86	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	62	244	63	21	1	0%	1.4	25.8%	8.6%	17.2%	0.4%	1.60	2.29	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	59	241	56	19	7	0%	1.3	19.5%	8.5%	11.0%	3.4%	2.91	4.41	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	59	241	56	19	7	0%	1.3	23.2%	7.9%	15.4%	2.9%	2.91	3.71	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	184	57	6	5	0%	1.3	27.2%	3.6%	23.6%	2.5%	1.85	2.64	+1.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	49	184	57	6	5	0%	1.3	31.0%	3.3%	27.7%	2.7%	1.85	2.46	+1.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	66	262	82	11	7	0%	1.1	30.2%	4.2%	26.0%	2.8%	2.17	2.60	+1.6
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	66	262	82	11	7	0%	1.1	31.3%	4.2%	27.1%	2.7%	2.17	2.50	+1.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	31	131	28	11	7	3%	1.0	23.8%	7.9%	15.8%	4.0%	4.65	4.27	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	1	31	131	28	11	7	3%	1.0	23.8%	7.9%	15.8%	4.0%	4.65	4.27	+0.1
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	1	31	131	28	11	7	3%	1.0	21.4%	8.4%	13.0%	5.3%	4.65	5.29	-0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	250	80	13	7	0%	1.2	31.7%	5.4%	26.2%	2.9%	2.01	2.71	+1.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	63	250	80	13	7	0%	1.2	31.7%	5.4%	26.2%	2.9%	2.01	2.71	+1.4
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	63	250	80	13	7	0%	1.2	32.0%	5.2%	26.8%	2.8%	2.01	2.62	+1.5
2025	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	74	0	68	266	76	13	13	0%	0.9	28.6%	4.9%	23.7%	4.9%	3.29	3.99	+0.5
2025	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	74	0	68	266	76	13	13	0%	0.9	28.6%	4.9%	23.7%	4.9%	3.29	3.99	+0.5
2025	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	74	0	68	266	76	13	13	0%	0.9	28.6%	4.9%	23.7%	4.9%	3.29	3.92	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			265	1	268	1061	313	58	33	0%	1.0	29.5%	5.5%	24.0%	3.1%	2.76	3.01	+4.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	67	0	63	244	75	15	3	0%	0.9	30.7%	6.1%	24.6%	1.2%	2.56	1.96	+2.0
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	67	0	63	244	75	15	3	0%	0.9	30.7%	6.1%	24.6%	1.2%	2.56	1.96	+2.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	ATL	67	0	63	244	75	15	3	0%	0.9	30.7%	6.1%	24.6%	1.2%	2.56	1.96	+2.0
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	ATL	67	0	63	244	75	15	3	0%	0.9	30.7%	6.1%	24.6%	1.2%	2.56	1.96	+2.0
ROS	31	MLB MLE	ATL	5	0	5	21	6	1	1	0%	1.0	30.2%	5.3%	24.9%	3.5%	2.95	3.14	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	ATL	5	0	5	21	6	1	1	0%	1.0	30.2%	5.3%	24.9%	3.5%	2.95	3.14	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	68	265	81	16	4	—	—	30.7%	6.1%	24.6%	1.4%	2.59	2.04	+2.3
FULL	31	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	68	288	81	16	4	—	—	28.2%	5.6%	22.6%	1.3%	2.59	2.14	+2.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ATL	51	0	53	225	66	13	7	0%	1.0	29.2%	5.7%	23.6%	3.2%	3.31	3.49	+0.7
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	47	0	49	207	59	13	7	0%	1.0	28.4%	6.1%	22.3%	3.5%	3.59	3.77	+0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	ATL	42	0	45	188	52	12	7	0%	1.1	27.5%	6.6%	20.9%	3.8%	3.88	4.07	+0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	ATL	49	0	51	215	63	12	7	0%	1.0	29.2%	5.7%	23.6%	3.2%	3.31	3.49	+0.7
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	45	0	47	198	56	12	7	0%	1.0	28.4%	6.1%	22.3%	3.5%	3.59	3.77	+0.4
2029	34	MLB CTX	ATL	38	0	40	169	46	11	6	0%	1.1	27.5%	6.6%	20.9%	3.8%	3.88	4.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		401	1	410	1663	484	94	54	0%	1.0	29.1%	5.7%	23.4%	3.2%	3.03	3.14	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		195	0	200	811	236	46	26	0%	1.0	29.1%	5.7%	23.4%	3.2%	3.03	3.14	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		435	20	565	2262	549	143	65	5%	1.3	24.3%	6.3%	18.0%	2.9%	2.93	3.41	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	7	200	800	194	50	23	5%	1.3	24.3%	6.3%	18.0%	2.9%	2.93	3.41	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Lee (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.67	29.4%	4.6%	3.8%	—	3.76	28.4%	22.3%	147	+0.09	—	—	—
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	75
Boone Logan L 2016 · 2.58 FIP	31	SU	2.58	30.5%	8.0%	1.9%	.207	3.74	28.5%	17.9%	32	+1.16	2.58	113	70
Brooks Raley L 2020 · 3.31 FIP	32	SU	3.31	32.1%	7.1%	3.7%	.208	2.82	28.4%	20.4%	157	-0.49	1.74	255	69
Jerry Blevins L 2016 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	29.2%	6.7%	2.2%	.291	3.66	26.9%	16.5%	124	+0.94	2.71	166	69
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	69
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	152	67
Brett Cecil L 2017 · 3.17 FIP	31	SU	3.17	23.8%	4.7%	2.7%	.314	5.57	12.1%	-0.6%	33	+2.40	1.96	191	67
Danny Coulombe L 2021 · 2.93 FIP	31	SU	2.93	26.0%	4.2%	2.7%	.315	2.77	26.9%	20.1%	93	-0.16	2.54	483	66
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	63
Tony Watson L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	21.3%	7.0%	4.0%	.227	3.43	21.4%	16.9%	187	-0.94	2.21	405	62
Tyler Lyons L 2019 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	27.2%	8.9%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	376	62
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	62
Andrew Chafin L 2021 · 2.83 FIP	31	SU	2.83	24.1%	6.8%	1.7%	.228	3.24	28.1%	17.7%	165	+0.41	2.42	531	61
Jeff Ibarra L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	31	SU	2.85	20.6%	3.4%	1.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	101	60
Aaron Loup L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.50	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.66	2.07	363	60
Joe Mantiply L 2022 · 2.73 FIP	31	SU	2.73	25.1%	2.5%	2.6%	.312	3.60	19.5%	15.2%	148	+0.87	2.07	485	60
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	60
Oliver Pérez L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	33	SU	2.88	27.9%	7.1%	2.2%	.304	2.63	28.3%	21.7%	119	-0.25	1.58	219	59
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	59
Jake Diekman L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.41	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.14	2.36	455	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	28.7%	5.7%	1.38	3.55
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61