Dylan Lee
P
Atlanta Braves
+0.7
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'3" / 214 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.57
FIP3.97
xFIP3.93
SIERA3.43
K%28.0%
BB%6.1%
K-BB%21.9%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†6565
FB+2.8 (26%)
SL+1.0 (56%)
CH (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 4 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 19 | 19 | 98 | 416 | 73 | 23 | 13 | 13.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | New Orleans Baby Cakes | 44 | 0 | 62 | 244 | 63 | 21 | 1 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 0.6% | 1.60 | 2.86 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | New Orleans Baby Cakes | 45 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 56 | 19 | 7 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 2.91 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 37 | 0 | 49 | 184 | 57 | 6 | 5 | 27.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.85 | 2.64 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 60 | 0 | 66 | 262 | 82 | 11 | 7 | 30.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.17 | 2.48 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 1 | 31 | 131 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 4.65 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 54 | 0 | 63 | 250 | 80 | 13 | 7 | 31.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.01 | 2.85 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 74 | 0 | 68 | 266 | 76 | 13 | 13 | 28.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.29 | 3.98 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 9 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | ATL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 57 | 13 | 8 | 27.4% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.45 | 4.02 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 57 | 237 | 65 | 14 | 8 | 27.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.12 | 3.46 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 62 | 14 | 8 | 26.7% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.73 | 4.00 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 57 | 14 | 8 | 26.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.97 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 53 | 13 | 8 | 25.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 4.15 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 49 | 13 | 8 | 24.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.31 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 44 | 13 | 8 | 23.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.47 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 39 | 12 | 7 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.64 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 377 | 20 | 510 | 2048 | 482 | 129 | 62 | 23.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.56 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 8 | 200 | 803 | 189 | 51 | 24 | 23.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.56 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Lee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.02 | 27.4% | 6.1% | 3.8% | — | 4.13 | 26.1% | 19.8% | 156 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | .353 | 3.79 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | +0.23 | 3.42 | 152 | 74 |
| Tony Sipp L 2027 · 2.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.68 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.36 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.68 | 2.19 | 195 | 73 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.48 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.98 | 2.22 | 405 | 72 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 71 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.62 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.92 | 3.70 | 181 | 70 |
| Brett Cecil L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.20 | 23.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .314 | 5.56 | 12.1% | -0.6% | 33 | +2.36 | 1.88 | 191 | 69 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 69 |
| David Price L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.63 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 2.9% | .273 | 3.65 | 25.8% | 18.9% | 283 | +0.02 | 2.58 | 922 | 67 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 67 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 67 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.89 | 20.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 101 | 66 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.00 | 26.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | .315 | 2.71 | 26.9% | 20.1% | 93 | -0.29 | 2.48 | 461 | 66 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 66 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 66 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.66 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.68 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +1.02 | 2.66 | 166 | 65 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 65 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.64 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.64 | 30.5% | 8.0% | 2.0% | .207 | 3.79 | 28.5% | 17.9% | 32 | +1.15 | 2.64 | 113 | 64 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.00 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 455 | 64 |
| Manny Parra L 2027 · 2.90 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.90 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | .300 | 3.33 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 55 | +0.43 | 2.43 | 114 | 64 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 31 | SW | 2.66 | 19.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | .278 | 3.08 | 27.2% | 20.5% | 162 | +0.42 | 2.22 | 459 | 63 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2022
Service 3.872 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.2M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $7M | +$0.2M | ||