Joe Mantiply — OGILVIE

Joe Mantiply P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 35 LHP 6'4" / 219 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.88

FIP3.88

K%19.3%

BB%4.4%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.6

Whiff%

p1017.4%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

CH+1.4 (25%)

SI (46%)

CU (29%)

SL (29%)

FB-1.7 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	63	256	51	12	4	0%	1.6	16.1%	5.5%	10.7%	2.0%	2.27	3.52	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	63	256	51	12	4	0%	1.6	19.9%	4.7%	15.2%	1.6%	2.27	2.88	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	61	1	62	257	71	13	3	2%	1.0	24.5%	5.9%	18.6%	0.5%	3.34	2.07	+1.8
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	61	1	62	257	71	13	3	2%	1.0	27.6%	5.1%	22.6%	1.2%	3.34	2.07	+1.9
2017	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	35	6	70	295	62	17	3	17%	2.0	18.5%	6.1%	12.4%	0.9%	2.83	2.80	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	35	6	70	295	62	17	3	17%	2.0	21.0%	5.8%	15.3%	1.0%	2.83	2.61	—
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	43	178	35	8	6	0%	1.6	18.7%	2.7%	16.0%	3.3%	4.64	3.65	+0.5
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	43	178	35	8	6	0%	1.6	19.7%	4.5%	15.2%	3.4%	4.64	3.85	+0.4
2020	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	4	0	2	15	2	4	0	0%	0.6	13.3%	26.7%	-13.3%	0.0%	15.43	5.35	-0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	4	0	2	15	2	4	0	0%	0.6	13.3%	26.7%	-13.3%	0.0%	15.43	6.53	-0.1
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	44	196	48	14	2	0%	0.7	21.5%	7.9%	13.6%	0.6%	3.25	2.62	+1.0
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	44	196	48	14	2	0%	0.7	24.5%	7.1%	17.3%	1.0%	3.25	2.47	+1.1
2022	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	69	0	60	243	61	6	6	0%	0.9	25.1%	2.5%	22.6%	2.6%	2.85	2.73	+1.3
2022	31	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	69	0	60	243	61	6	6	0%	0.9	25.1%	2.5%	22.6%	2.5%	2.85	2.67	+1.4
2023	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	49	4	56	232	45	13	6	8%	1.1	17.3%	5.4%	11.9%	3.0%	4.79	3.96	+0.4
2023	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	49	4	56	232	45	13	6	8%	1.1	17.3%	5.4%	11.9%	3.0%	4.79	3.96	+0.4
2023	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	49	4	56	232	45	13	6	8%	1.1	19.4%	5.6%	13.8%	2.6%	4.79	3.58	+0.6
2024	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	75	2	60	243	53	11	1	3%	0.8	21.8%	4.5%	17.3%	0.4%	3.92	2.07	+1.8
2024	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	75	2	60	243	53	11	1	3%	0.8	21.8%	4.5%	17.3%	0.4%	3.92	2.07	+1.8
2024	33	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	75	2	60	243	53	11	1	3%	0.8	21.8%	4.5%	17.3%	0.4%	3.92	2.09	+1.8
2025	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	1	38	177	38	6	10	3%	1.1	19.0%	2.7%	16.3%	6.8%	7.17	5.58	-0.5
2025	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	1	38	177	38	6	10	3%	1.1	19.0%	2.7%	16.3%	6.8%	7.17	5.58	-0.5
2025	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	1	38	177	38	6	10	3%	1.1	21.5%	3.4%	18.1%	5.6%	7.17	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			278	5	241	1019	214	53	21	2%	0.9	21.0%	5.2%	15.8%	2.1%	4.30	3.12	+4.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	29	0	33	135	29	7	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	5.2%	15.6%	2.1%	3.55	3.14	+0.6
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	29	0	33	135	29	7	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	5.2%	15.6%	2.1%	3.55	3.14	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	A RAW	TOR	2	0	2	10	2	0	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	27.00	1.41	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	TOR	5	0	7	29	7	2	0	0%	1.3	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	0.0%	2.70	1.94	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	TOR	22	0	25	96	20	5	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	5.2%	15.6%	2.1%	2.19	3.14	+0.4
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	TOR	22	0	25	96	20	5	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	5.2%	15.6%	2.1%	2.19	3.14	+0.4
ROS	35	MLB MLE	TOR	4	0	5	19	4	1	1	0%	1.1	19.3%	4.4%	14.9%	3.4%	3.88	3.88	+0.0
ROS	35	MLB CTX	TOR	5	0	5	21	4	1	1	0%	1.0	19.3%	4.4%	14.9%	3.4%	3.88	3.88	+0.0
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	38	154	33	8	3	—	—	21.2%	5.1%	16.1%	1.7%	3.59	3.23	+0.6
FULL	35	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	29	123	33	8	3	—	—	26.5%	6.4%	20.1%	2.1%	4.61	2.85	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	TOR	45	0	48	201	36	10	7	0%	1.1	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	3.6%	4.42	4.57	-0.0
2028	37	MLB MLE	TOR	40	0	42	176	30	10	7	0%	1.0	16.9%	5.7%	11.3%	4.0%	4.75	4.97	-0.2
2027	36	MLB CTX	TOR	41	0	43	182	33	9	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	3.6%	4.42	4.57	-0.0
2028	37	MLB CTX	TOR	32	0	34	144	24	8	6	0%	1.1	16.9%	5.7%	11.3%	4.0%	4.75	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		356	5	323	1365	275	71	34	1%	0.9	20.1%	5.2%	14.9%	2.5%	4.36	3.43	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		221	3	200	846	170	44	21	1%	0.9	20.1%	5.2%	14.9%	2.5%	4.36	3.43	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		484	14	531	2227	452	113	45	3%	1.1	20.3%	5.1%	15.2%	2.0%	3.74	3.14	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		182	5	200	838	170	42	17	3%	1.1	20.3%	5.1%	15.2%	2.0%	3.74	3.14	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Mantiply (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	18.4%	4.2%	3.4%	—	4.76	17.5%	12.2%	89	+0.42	—	—	—
Fernando Abad L 2021 · 4.24 FIP	35	SU	4.24	17.6%	6.4%	3.3%	.343	4.24	18.2%	12.6%	81	+0.00	2.37	306	74
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	71
Jerry Blevins L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	35	SU	4.09	26.2%	9.9%	3.5%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	166	68
Dana Eveland L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	33	SW	4.67	14.7%	4.7%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.42	129	67
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	66
Oliver Pérez L 2017 · 3.22 FIP	35	SU	3.22	27.3%	7.0%	2.8%	.311	2.23	28.0%	23.3%	105	-0.99	1.58	219	65
Tony Watson L 2020 · 4.32 FIP	35	SU	4.32	20.5%	4.1%	4.4%	.192	3.46	19.6%	12.0%	57	-0.86	2.21	405	65
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2016 · 3.28 FIP	35	SU	3.28	20.7%	8.2%	1.6%	.255	3.35	26.7%	18.4%	22	+0.07	2.58	109	64
Craig Breslow L 2016 · 4.26 FIP	35	SU	4.26	17.0%	9.2%	2.6%	.418	4.54	15.7%	5.5%	55	+0.28	4.22	159	62
Manny Parra L 2018 · 3.33 FIP	35	SU	3.33	18.4%	10.3%	0.9%	.351	2.43	17.3%	11.0%	27	-0.90	2.43	114	55
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	54
Dan Runzler L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	34	SU	4.84	16.0%	13.0%	2.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	127	51
David Price L 2021 · 3.82 FIP	35	SW	3.82	17.8%	7.4%	2.4%	.301	3.65	22.2%	18.0%	40	-0.17	2.65	922	50
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	50
Rich Hill L 2015 · 3.27 FIP	35	SW	3.27	26.8%	10.9%	1.9%	.239	3.07	29.0%	21.2%	379	-0.20	2.05	1,030	47
Francisco Liriano L 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SU	4.34	20.9%	11.3%	2.9%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	650	46
Adam Loewen L 2017 · 4.22 FIP	33	SU	4.22	23.4%	17.4%	1.6%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	176	44
Sam Freeman L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	35	SU	4.01	18.5%	13.1%	1.5%	.212	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	299	42
Edward Mujica R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	34	SU	4.35	14.2%	2.4%	3.9%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	212	38
Shawn Kelley R 2019 · 4.97 FIP	35	SU	4.97	21.0%	4.4%	5.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	232	38

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	17.9%	4.9%	1.42	4.49
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Paolo Espino ('22)	1.2	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43