Christian Little

P Everett AquaSox

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #469

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	17	17	71	3.95	3.13	24.9%	10.9%	—	K 19.6% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.48
2026	23	A+SEA	38	0	53	3.23	3.42	30.9%	11.4%	—	K 23.8% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.62
2027PROJ	24	MLBSEA	64	0	67	4.87	4.87	23.3%	13.3%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSEA	28	0	29	4.74	4.69	23.7%	12.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSEA	43	0	45	4.67	4.64	23.9%	12.0%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsWilliam Kempner (age 22) · Gabriel Ponce (age 24) · Ben Hecht (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%23.3%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	71	293	73	32	4	100%	4.2	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	2.7%	3.95	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	71	293	73	32	4	100%	4.2	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	2.7%	3.95	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	71	293	73	32	4	100%	4.2	24.9%	10.9%	14.0%	1.4%	3.95	3.13	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	38	0	53	220	68	25	6	0%	1.4	23.8%	13.1%	10.7%	3.4%	3.23	4.62	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	38	0	53	220	68	25	6	0%	1.4	23.8%	13.1%	10.7%	3.4%	3.23	4.62	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	38	0	53	220	68	25	6	0%	1.4	30.9%	11.4%	19.5%	2.7%	3.23	3.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SEA	64	0	67	283	66	38	9	0%	1.0	23.3%	13.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	287	68	35	9	0%	1.0	23.7%	12.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.74	4.69	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	287	69	34	9	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	3.0%	4.67	4.64	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	64	0	67	283	67	34	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	65	33	9	0%	1.0	23.7%	12.0%	11.7%	3.2%	4.71	4.74	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	28	0	29	122	29	15	4	0%	1.0	23.7%	12.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.74	4.69	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	43	0	45	190	45	23	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	12.0%	11.9%	3.0%	4.67	4.64	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	52	220	52	26	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	SEA	52	0	55	232	55	28	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	12.0%	11.7%	3.2%	4.71	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	182	92	24	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	3.1%	4.69	4.31	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	102	27	0%	1.1	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	3.1%	4.69	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		55	17	124	513	110	65	15	31%	2.2	21.4%	12.7%	8.7%	3.0%	3.64	4.54	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	27	200	830	177	105	25	31%	2.2	21.4%	12.7%	8.7%	3.0%	3.64	4.54	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Little (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	23.3%	13.3%	3.0%	—	4.66	23.8%	11.7%	203	-0.21	—	—	—
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	85
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	85
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	84
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.63	22.2%	11.8%	86	-0.01	4.42	152	83
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	83
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	83
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	83
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	82
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	82
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	82
James McDonald R 2009 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.283	4.16	20.4%	11.3%	414	+0.20	2.99	506	81
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	81
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.36	27.3%	13.8%	163	-0.09	3.05	349	81
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	81
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	23.7%	12.3%	1.19	4.73
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17