Harol Arias — OGILVIE

Harol Arias P FCL Orioles

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 15 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%22.6%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Black	12	4	27	129	19	11	5	33%	2.2	10.0%	10.7%	-0.6%	5.7%	8.10	6.74	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles Black	12	4	27	129	19	11	5	33%	2.2	14.7%	8.5%	6.2%	3.9%	8.10	5.35	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	53	247	35	27	3	77%	4.1	10.1%	12.6%	-2.5%	2.0%	5.30	4.94	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	53	247	35	27	3	77%	4.1	14.2%	10.9%	3.2%	1.2%	5.30	4.05	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	4	0	3	21	2	2	1	0%	0.8	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	4.8%	13.50	6.12	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	4	0	3	21	2	2	1	0%	0.8	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	4.8%	13.50	7.60	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	18	0	25	117	22	19	3	0%	1.4	12.8%	20.3%	-7.5%	3.6%	6.12	6.57	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	18	0	25	117	22	19	3	0%	1.4	12.8%	20.3%	-7.5%	3.6%	6.12	6.57	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	18	0	25	117	22	19	3	0%	1.4	18.8%	16.2%	2.6%	2.6%	6.12	5.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	14	0	15	63	14	8	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.79	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.60	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.22	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		47	14	108	514	55	71	18	30%	2.3	10.7%	13.7%	-3.1%	3.4%	6.44	5.81	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	26	200	955	102	131	33	30%	2.3	10.7%	13.7%	-3.1%	3.4%	6.44	5.81	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Harol Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	22.6%	12.4%	3.0%	—	4.60	23.1%	11.8%	20	-0.19	—	—	—
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	83
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	81
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	78
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	77
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	77
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	77
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	77
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	76
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	76
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	24	SW	4.45	21.0%	12.4%	2.8%	.325	4.36	27.3%	13.8%	163	-0.09	3.05	349	76
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	75
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	75
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	75
Carlo Reyes R 2022 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.318	3.92	24.1%	12.9%	61	-0.14	2.60	229	75
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	75
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	74
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	74
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	74
Irving Jimenez R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	25	SW	3.63	18.5%	12.8%	0.9%	.313	4.04	14.1%	1.7%	50	+0.41	3.63	104	74