Ryan Nicholson — OGILVIE

Ryan Nicholson1B Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 25 L/L 6'4" / 226 lbs A+ K +5%HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION423 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP270

ISO130

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	23	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	134	113	33	12	0	4	17	23	4	1	0	292	403	504	907	212	337	17	13	402	158	+9	+0	—	—	+3	1.3
2025	24	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	143	123	23	3	0	5	18	41	0	0	0	187	291	333	624	146	231	29	13	282	77	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2025	24	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	400	330	87	17	1	14	58	94	7	1	1	264	385	448	833	185	323	24	14	370	136	+17	-0	—	—	+9	2.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	134	119	30	10	0	4	11	32	4	1	0	252	336	437	773	185	310	24	8	332	111	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	143	129	20	3	0	4	12	49	0	0	0	155	227	271	498	116	205	34	8	219	34	-11	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8
2025	24	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	400	350	71	13	1	11	38	129	7	1	1	203	294	340	634	137	269	32	10	276	73	-13	-0	—	—	+9	-0.5
2024	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	134	119	30	10	0	4	11	32	4	1	0	252	336	437	773	185	313	24	8	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	—	134	113	33	12	0	4	17	23	4	1	0	292	403	504	907	212	337	17	13	402	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	543	479	91	16	1	15	50	179	7	1	1	190	276	322	598	132	262	33	9	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	543	453	110	20	1	19	76	135	7	1	1	243	360	417	777	174	299	25	14	347	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	134	118	30	10	0	4	11	32	4	1	0	254	336	441	776	186	310	24	8	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	543	481	91	16	1	15	50	179	7	1	1	189	276	320	596	131	252	33	9	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	134	118	30	10	0	4	11	32	4	1	0	254	336	441	776	186	310	24	8	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	543	481	91	16	1	15	50	179	7	1	1	189	276	320	596	131	252	33	9	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	LAA	—	423	393	73	15	0	9	22	149	1	1	1	186	231	293	523	107	264	35	5	231	43	-29	-0	+0	-8	+9	-2.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ RAW	LAA	—	342	305	78	17	0	9	29	86	1	0	1	256	320	400	720	144	321	25	8	317	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA RAW	LAA	—	81	73	16	4	0	3	6	22	0	1	0	219	278	397	676	178	260	27	7	293	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	A+ MLE	LAA	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		271	30	10	254	58	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	25	A+ MLE	LAA	—	433	402	74	15	0	9	23	152	1	1	1	184	230	289	519	104	262	35	5	232	43	-29	-0	+0	-8	+9	-2.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	LAA	30%	365	335	67	13	1	9	25	118	2	2	1	200	260	325	585	125	274	32	7	264	65	-15	+0	+0	-7	+8	-1.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	LAA	30%	111	101	20	4	0	3	8	36	1	1	0	198	264	327	590	129	274	32	7	260	65	-5	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	111	101	20	4	0	3	8	36	1	1	0	198	264	327	590	129	270	32	7	260	70	-5	+0	+0	-2	+2	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	117	23	0	18	47	211	6	6	0	198	264	328	592	130	269	32	7	260	70	-27	+1	+0	-12	+14	-2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1052	942	189	39	2	28	87	332	13	4	2	201	277	335	613	135	273	32	8	271	70	-16	+0	+0	-7	+8	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	116	24	1	17	54	205	8	2	1	199	276	332	608	132	272	32	8	271	70	-27	+0	+0	-12	+14	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Nicholson (OGILVIE)	25	45	50	40	60	192/250/309	117	271	8	1	33%	7%	58	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Josh Ockimey 2021 · AAA	25	37→45	51→50	42→30	48	195/287/353	158	282	19	4	36%	11%	82	-0.0	194/285/326	132	293	15	4	36%	11%	75	-0.5	176/274/300	124	263	14	2	36%	11%	63	-1.0
✕Bryce Ball 2023 · AA	25	44→49	44→45	38→30	49	214/295/334	120	301	11	2	31%	10%	80	-0.2	196/266/306	110	302	10	3	35%	8%	63	-1.4	165/237/269	104	263	9	1	38%	8%	42	-1.5
✕Chris McGuiness 2013 · AA	25	44→48	46→45	41→30	47	221/288/347	127	282	14	2	26%	8%	80	-0.1	215/289/333	118	270	11	2	23%	9%	77	-0.3	206/286/311	105	255	9	1	21%	10%	69	-0.7
✕Stefan Welch 2014 · AA	25	42→43	45	45→40	44	211/278/329	118	280	13	5	28%	7%	72	-0.7	204/279/317	113	284	11	5	30%	8%	70	-0.8	178/263/285	107	251	10	1	31%	8%	57	-1.2
✕Will Robertson 2023 · AA	25	38→41	46→50	39→45	38	193/255/322	130	282	13	4	35%	6%	63	-1.4	199/260/350	151	283	17	6	34%	7%	71	-0.8	194/259/348	154	271	18	5	34%	7%	68	-0.7
✕Viosergy Rosa 2015 · AA	25	45→50	46→45	46→30	45	223/289/349	126	297	13	2	29%	8%	81	-0.1	210/280/321	111	290	11	2	29%	9%	71	-0.8	208/269/328	121	293	13	0	32%	8%	67	-0.7
✕Michael Burgess 2014 · AA	25	38→42	46→50	43→45	43	197/254/326	129	253	14	2	28%	7%	63	-1.4	218/261/366	148	281	14	6	27%	5%	74	-0.6	247/281/441	194	300	19	6	24%	4%	99	+0.8
✕Aaron Baker 2013 · AA	25	43→49	49→50	44→40	41	221/275/373	152	289	17	5	29%	6%	81	-0.1	211/263/336	125	287	12	6	29%	6%	68	-1.0	191/239/303	112	261	8	2	29%	6%	48	-1.2
✕Luke Tendler 2017 · A	25	44→45	47→50	39→40	44	221/280/363	142	279	15	4	26%	7%	81	-0.1	211/262/332	121	278	13	3	28%	6%	67	-1.1	199/247/308	109	263	12	2	29%	5%	53	-1.6
✕Ronnie Mitchell 2016 · A	25	44→45	47→50	43→40	43	222/275/365	143	291	15	5	28%	7%	79	-0.2	228/282/342	114	293	10	6	24%	7%	76	-0.4	235/288/325	90	289	7	5	20%	7%	72	-0.3
✕D.J. Hicks 2015 · A	25	45→47	44→45	41→30	44	223/284/344	121	302	12	2	29%	8%	78	-0.3	215/276/308	93	301	8	3	29%	8%	66	-1.1	207/270/283	76	292	6	2	29%	8%	55	-1.2
✕Jake Guenther 2022 · A	25	43	44→45	41→40	43	217/284/326	110	284	13	6	28%	7%	74	-0.5	205/272/314	109	291	12	7	32%	7%	67	-1.1	132/206/234	102	189	13	3	37%	6%	24	-0.9
✕Mike Papi 2018 · AAA	25	43→47	44→45	44→45	49	213/289/326	113	277	11	6	26%	9%	76	-0.4	216/289/321	105	298	9	6	28%	9%	74	-0.5	200/282/298	98	292	7	1	31%	10%	65	-0.4
✕Brett Bonvechio 2008 · AA	25	43→42	49→50	44→30	47	216/294/369	153	299	17	3	32%	9%	87	+0.4	219/277/343	124	301	12	7	30%	7%	75	-0.5	196/244/294	98	283	6	2	32%	5%	50	-0.6
✕Dillon Paulson 2022 · AA	25	46→36	44→50	44→30	45	222/289/338	116	322	11	6	33%	9%	78	-0.3	221/289/341	120	285	12	5	25%	8%	79	-0.2	213/277/313	100	285	8	0	26%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Luke Anders 2012 · A	25	45→50	47→50	41→30	40	223/273/359	136	304	14	2	31%	6%	77	-0.3	221/271/339	118	305	12	4	30%	6%	72	-0.7	218/262/324	105	300	11	0	30%	5%	62	-0.8
✕Andy Wilkins 2014 · AAA	25	43→45	49→50	44→45	45	221/279/365	144	270	17	5	25%	7%	81	-0.1	215/260/366	151	265	18	3	26%	6%	74	-0.6	165/242/318	154	223	22	3	36%	9%	56	-0.8
✕Brendon Sanger 2019 · AA	25	42	43→45	41→45	46	210/279/319	109	279	11	5	28%	8%	70	-0.8	192/264/301	109	281	12	7	34%	8%	61	-1.5	147/228/243	96	221	12	4	37%	8%	33	-2.4
✕Chad Spanberger 2021 · AA	25	41→42	48→55	47→45	40	212/262/354	142	274	17	8	29%	6%	72	-0.7	196/254/329	133	304	15	7	39%	6%	63	-1.3	159/218/290	131	246	17	3	42%	6%	40	-1.7
✕Josh Lester 2019 · AA	25	42	47→55	47→40	41	216/264/350	134	275	15	3	27%	6%	72	-0.7	204/254/352	148	268	17	3	30%	6%	69	-0.9	198/244/371	173	249	22	4	31%	5%	67	-0.9