Trey Dombroski

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 229 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	18	98	5.90	4.58	24.6%	7.0%	—	K 19.2% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.52
2025	24	MIX2 levels	28	19	121	3.95	3.20	24.1%	10.8%	—	K 20.1% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.80
2026	25	AAHOU	24	21	98	4.41	4.73	21.5%	11.6%	—	K 17.4% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.57
2027PROJ	26	MLBHOU	12	12	72	5.32	5.32	18.0%	12.4%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBHOU	7	7	40	5.24	5.25	18.4%	12.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBHOU	10	10	62	5.23	5.26	18.5%	11.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJustin Marks (age 27) · Miguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Jack Snodgrass (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%18.0%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	15	119	491	148	35	15	58%	4.6	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	4.0%	3.71	4.48	—
2023	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	15	119	491	148	35	15	58%	4.6	30.1%	7.1%	23.0%	3.1%	3.71	3.13	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	98	456	112	32	21	72%	3.9	19.2%	7.9%	11.2%	5.5%	5.90	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	98	456	112	32	21	72%	3.9	19.2%	7.9%	11.2%	5.5%	5.90	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	98	456	112	32	21	72%	3.9	24.6%	7.0%	17.5%	4.6%	5.90	4.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	121	507	122	55	7	68%	4.3	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	1.7%	3.95	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	19	121	507	122	55	7	68%	4.3	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	1.7%	3.95	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	19	121	507	122	55	7	68%	4.3	24.1%	10.8%	13.2%	1.4%	3.95	3.20	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	21	98	424	91	49	15	88%	4.1	17.4%	12.7%	4.7%	4.2%	4.41	5.57	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	21	98	424	91	49	15	88%	4.1	17.4%	12.7%	4.7%	4.2%	4.41	5.57	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	21	98	424	91	49	15	88%	4.1	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	3.5%	4.41	4.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	HOU	12	12	72	304	55	38	10	100%	6.0	18.0%	12.4%	5.6%	3.3%	5.32	5.32	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	107	452	83	54	15	100%	5.9	18.4%	12.0%	6.4%	3.3%	5.24	5.25	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	104	438	81	52	15	100%	6.1	18.5%	11.8%	6.7%	3.4%	5.23	5.26	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	99	418	77	50	15	100%	5.8	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	3.5%	5.28	5.34	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	93	394	72	47	15	100%	5.8	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	3.7%	5.40	5.49	-0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	40	169	31	20	6	100%	5.7	18.4%	12.0%	6.4%	3.3%	5.24	5.25	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	62	262	48	31	9	100%	6.2	18.5%	11.8%	6.7%	3.4%	5.23	5.26	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	70	296	55	35	10	100%	5.8	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	3.5%	5.28	5.34	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	73	308	56	37	11	100%	6.1	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	3.7%	5.40	5.49	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	245	1035	190	123	36	100%	6.0	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	3.5%	5.30	4.97	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	155	100	29	100%	6.0	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	3.5%	5.30	4.97	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		103	73	435	1878	373	190	71	71%	4.2	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	3.8%	4.42	4.79	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	863	171	87	33	71%	4.2	19.8%	10.1%	9.7%	3.8%	4.42	4.79	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Dombroski (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	18.0%	12.4%	3.3%	—	5.28	18.4%	6.6%	310	-0.04	—	—	—
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	83
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	83
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	81
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	78
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	78
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	78
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	76
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	75
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	74
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	73
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	73
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	73
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	72
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	72
Mason Green L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP-	4.80	18.7%	12.6%	3.1%	.307	3.85	18.2%	6.4%	157	-0.95	3.68	450	72
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	71
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	95	18.3%	12.0%	1.33	5.29
Jerry Casale ('58-'62, -1 WAR*)	1.9	93	18.7%*	11.2%*	1.44*	5.30*
Jim Britton ('67-'71, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	18.4%*	11.7%*	1.42*	5.10*
Bob McGraw ('17-'29, -2 WAR*)	3.0	99	16.8%*	11.0%*	1.21*	5.01*
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77