Marques Johnson

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 213 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	6	1	7	2.45	3.10	36.4%	24.2%	—	K 36.4% · BB 24.2% · FIP 3.10
2025	25	MIX2 levels	41	0	57	2.53	2.17	33.1%	12.7%	—	K 26.2% · BB 14.3% · FIP 2.99
2026	26	MIX2 levels	40	0	51	5.33	4.28	25.8%	14.6%	—	K 21.5% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.67
2027PROJ	27	MLBSF	67	0	70	4.97	4.97	23.3%	15.6%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBSF	28	0	29	4.95	4.99	23.2%	15.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBSF	36	0	38	5.00	5.07	22.9%	14.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command25FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDennis Sarfate (age 27) · Beck Wheeler (age 27) · Nick Ernst (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%23.3%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CMD3025

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	39	0	53	225	63	33	1	0%	1.4	20.7%	17.3%	3.4%	0.6%	4.27	3.90	—
2023	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	39	0	53	225	63	33	1	0%	1.4	28.0%	14.7%	13.3%	0.4%	4.27	2.83	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	7	33	12	8	0	17%	1.2	36.4%	24.2%	12.1%	0.0%	2.45	3.10	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	7	33	12	8	0	17%	1.2	36.4%	24.2%	12.1%	0.0%	2.45	3.10	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	7	33	12	8	0	17%	1.2	36.4%	24.2%	12.1%	0.0%	2.45	3.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	236	78	30	1	0%	1.4	26.2%	14.3%	11.9%	0.5%	2.53	2.99	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	236	78	30	1	0%	1.4	26.2%	14.3%	11.9%	0.5%	2.53	2.99	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	57	236	78	30	1	0%	1.4	33.1%	12.7%	20.3%	0.4%	2.53	2.17	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	51	233	60	34	6	0%	1.3	21.5%	13.7%	7.8%	3.0%	5.33	4.67	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	51	233	60	34	6	0%	1.3	21.5%	13.7%	7.8%	3.0%	5.33	4.67	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	51	233	60	34	6	0%	1.3	25.8%	14.6%	11.2%	2.6%	5.33	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SF	67	0	70	296	69	46	8	0%	1.0	23.3%	15.6%	7.6%	2.7%	4.97	4.97	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	65	0	68	287	66	43	8	0%	1.0	23.2%	15.2%	8.0%	2.8%	4.95	4.99	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	62	0	65	274	63	41	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	14.9%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	5.07	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	28	0	29	122	28	19	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	15.2%	8.0%	2.8%	4.95	4.99	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	36	0	38	160	37	24	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	14.9%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	0	67	283	65	43	8	0%	1.0	23.0%	15.0%	8.0%	2.9%	4.98	4.66	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	128	24	0%	1.1	23.0%	15.0%	8.0%	2.9%	4.98	4.66	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		126	1	168	727	171	113	10	1%	1.3	23.5%	15.5%	8.0%	1.3%	3.92	3.82	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	1	200	867	204	134	12	1%	1.3	23.5%	15.5%	8.0%	1.3%	3.92	3.82	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marques Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	23.3%	15.6%	2.7%	—	5.03	23.0%	8.0%	133	+0.06	—	—	—
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	92
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	83
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	82
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	81
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	80
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	80
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	80
Jake Haberer R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	27	SU	5.24	24.3%	16.0%	4.0%	.324	5.08	16.4%	0.9%	62	-0.16	3.46	183	80
Joe Record R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	27	SU	3.78	20.1%	13.0%	1.3%	.333	3.43	21.1%	10.2%	112	-0.35	2.64	280	79
Zac Leigh R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	21.8%	15.4%	1.8%	.367	4.74	19.4%	2.7%	87	+0.53	3.70	201	79
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	23.1%	15.2%	1.09	4.97
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*