Kade Bragg
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%12.4%
IP67
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 6 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.08 | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 42 | 0 | 67 | 272 | 82 | 31 | 6 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 2.94 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 4 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.16 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 66 | 30 | 9 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 76 | 319 | 73 | 38 | 9 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.03 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 66 | 30 | 9 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 66 | 29 | 9 | 23.4% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 65 | 29 | 8 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 63 | 28 | 8 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 61 | 28 | 8 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 58 | 27 | 8 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 55 | 26 | 8 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 52 | 26 | 8 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 48 | 25 | 8 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 45 | 24 | 8 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 41 | 23 | 7 | 21.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 0 | 84 | 341 | 79 | 48 | 8 | 23.3% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 2.68 | 4.17 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 124 | 0 | 200 | 812 | 188 | 114 | 19 | 23.3% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 2.68 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kade Bragg (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.49 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 200 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 89 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 87 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 87 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.65 | 3.93 | 264 | 87 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 86 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 86 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 85 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 85 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 85 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.12 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.9% | .382 | 3.51 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.61 | 2.88 | 206 | 84 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 84 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 84 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 83 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | .322 | 4.68 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.61 | 3.96 | 265 | 83 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 82 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .294 | 3.82 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.25 | 3.59 | 364 | 82 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2024 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.67 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 148 | 82 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.38 | 25.5% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .267 | 4.49 | 26.8% | 15.9% | 148 | +0.11 | 3.79 | 470 | 81 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.12 | 21.7% | 12.3% | 4.2% | .342 | 3.76 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 53 | -1.36 | 3.76 | 161 | 81 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .304 | 4.45 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 276 | +1.08 | 3.37 | 353 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||