Julian Aguiar
P
Louisville Bats
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA5.27
FIP4.61
xFIP5.87
SIERA5.45
K%19.1%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%11.1%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†4550
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p1018.6%
K%
p1013.6%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SL+1.6 (17%)
SI (54%)
CU (9%)
FB-1.2 (54%)
CH-1.6 (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 5 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 14 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.12 | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 25 | 17 | 96 | 410 | 113 | 27 | 13 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.46 | 5.06 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 25 | 25 | 125 | 515 | 138 | 37 | 8 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 2.95 | 3.39 | +2.7 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 29 | 148 | 622 | 114 | 40 | 21 | 15.9% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 4.32 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 3 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 21.1% | 16.8% | 8.8% | 9.28 | 8.27 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 38 | 16 | 7 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 5.31 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 59 | 253 | 50 | 24 | 11 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 6.03 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 106 | 42 | 18 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 110 | 43 | 19 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 110 | 44 | 19 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 105 | 43 | 18 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 99 | 42 | 18 | 19.0% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.82 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 93 | 41 | 18 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.92 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 86 | 40 | 18 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 79 | 40 | 17 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 5.09 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 72 | 38 | 17 | 16.5% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 5.22 | 5.31 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 65 | 37 | 16 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 5.36 | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 58 | 36 | 16 | 14.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 5.52 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 74 | 389 | 1635 | 316 | 121 | 57 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 3.77 | 4.30 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 38 | 200 | 841 | 163 | 62 | 29 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 3.77 | 4.30 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julian Aguiar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | — | 4.67 | 19.9% | 12.0% | 387 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 85 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 84 |
| Andres Avila R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.99 | 16.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 13.9% | 73 | +0.14 | 3.99 | 177 | 84 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .283 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 89 | -0.37 | 3.52 | 136 | 83 |
| John Brebbia R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 83 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 83 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 82 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 82 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 82 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | .364 | 6.24 | 17.3% | 5.0% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.59 | 108 | 82 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 145 | 81 |
| Michael King R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .316 | 2.74 | 28.3% | 20.8% | 219 | -1.38 | 1.98 | 862 | 81 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 81 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 81 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 80 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.65 | 3.22 | 145 | 80 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 80 |
| Max Duval R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 15.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .317 | 5.44 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 127 | +0.90 | 3.27 | 189 | 80 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.09 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.78 | 2.67 | 102 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2030
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.2M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $5M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $13M | +$3M | ||