Julian Aguiar
P
Louisville Bats
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.6 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.58
FIP4.84
K%17.0%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p1018.6%
K%
p1013.6%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
SL+1.6 (17%)
SI (54%)
CU (9%)
FB-1.2 (54%)
CH-1.6 (19%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 5 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 36.8% | 0.0% | 36.8% | 2.6% | 3.12 | 1.43 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 5 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 36.8% | 0.0% | 36.8% | 2.6% | 3.12 | 1.37 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 96 | 410 | 113 | 27 | 13 | 68% | 3.9 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 5.5% | 3.46 | 5.25 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 17 | 96 | 410 | 113 | 27 | 13 | 68% | 3.9 | 27.6% | 6.6% | 21.0% | 3.2% | 3.46 | 3.35 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 125 | 515 | 138 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 2.95 | 3.39 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 125 | 515 | 138 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.8% | 7.2% | 19.6% | 1.6% | 2.95 | 2.61 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 148 | 622 | 114 | 40 | 21 | 100% | 5.1 | 15.9% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 148 | 622 | 114 | 40 | 21 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.3% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.21 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 13 | 13 | 50 | 223 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 3.9 | 19.9% | 14.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.19 | 5.46 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 60 | 255 | 43 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 24 | 10 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 111 | 478 | 94 | 46 | 17 | — | — | 19.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 33 | 140 | 24 | 10 | 5 | — | — | 17.0% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 69 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 15 | 89 | 375 | 69 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 67 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 62 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 77 | 326 | 63 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 7.1% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 4.86 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 51 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 56 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.77 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 58 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 55 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 57 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 7.1% | 12.1% | 4.0% | 4.92 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 75 | 75 | 421 | 1784 | 320 | 131 | 68 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 4.61 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 847 | 152 | 62 | 32 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 4.61 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 97 | 84 | 428 | 1808 | 349 | 145 | 62 | 87% | 4.4 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 3.80 | 4.37 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 39 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 67 | 29 | 87% | 4.4 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 3.80 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julian Aguiar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.5% | — | 4.74 | 18.3% | 11.1% | 265 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 81 |
| Jayden Murray R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .258 | 4.95 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 105 | +0.51 | 3.38 | 372 | 80 |
| Ross Stripling R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.58 | 23.1% | 18.2% | 313 | -0.68 | 3.05 | 930 | 80 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 77 |
| Josh Winder R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.4% | 11.9% | 106 | -0.97 | 2.66 | 426 | 77 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.94 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.09 | 3.46 | 274 | 77 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 77 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 76 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 76 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.72 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% | .261 | 4.54 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 282 | -0.18 | 3.06 | 584 | 76 |
| Alex Cobb R 2029 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 76 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 76 |
| Austin Gordon R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 75 |
| Jeffrey Passantino R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.13 | 18.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .298 | 4.58 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 41 | -0.55 | 2.02 | 242 | 75 |
| Peyton Stumbo R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.49 | 14.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 235 | 75 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 75 |
| Ryan Johnson R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.81 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 126 | 75 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.46 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.7% | .325 | 6.04 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 30 | +0.58 | 4.30 | 232 | 75 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.50 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.44 | 3.73 | 725 | 75 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 81 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 1.37 | 4.73 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Jaime Barria ('23) | 6 | 77 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 1.61 | 4.38 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |