Julian Aguiar — OGILVIE

Julian Aguiar P Louisville Bats

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.0 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.57

FIP4.82

K%16.8%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p1018.6%

p1013.6%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

SL+1.6 (17%)

SI (54%)

CU (9%)

FB-1.2 (54%)

CH-1.6 (19%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	5	0	9	38	14	0	1	0%	1.7	36.8%	0.0%	36.8%	2.6%	3.12	1.43	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	5	0	9	38	14	0	1	0%	1.7	36.8%	0.0%	36.8%	2.6%	3.12	1.37	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	96	410	113	27	13	68%	3.9	20.4%	6.9%	13.4%	4.7%	3.46	4.85	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	96	410	113	27	13	68%	3.9	27.6%	6.6%	21.0%	3.2%	3.46	3.35	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	125	515	138	37	8	100%	5.0	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	1.9%	2.95	3.38	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	125	515	138	37	8	100%	5.0	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	1.9%	2.95	3.38	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	125	515	138	37	8	100%	5.0	26.8%	7.2%	19.6%	1.6%	2.95	2.61	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	148	622	114	40	21	100%	5.1	15.6%	6.4%	9.2%	3.4%	4.32	4.45	+0.8
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	148	622	114	40	21	100%	5.1	15.6%	6.4%	9.2%	3.4%	4.32	4.45	+0.8
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	148	622	114	40	21	100%	5.1	18.3%	6.4%	11.9%	3.4%	4.32	4.21	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	7	32	140	19	11	8	100%	4.5	13.6%	7.9%	5.7%	5.7%	6.25	6.23	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	16	16	58	259	56	30	10	100%	3.6	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	4.1%	6.05	5.39	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	16	16	58	259	56	30	10	100%	3.6	17.5%	11.8%	5.7%	4.1%	6.05	5.39	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CIN	4	4	11	46	11	2	2	100%	2.7	23.9%	4.3%	19.6%	4.3%	5.06	4.02	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CIN	12	12	47	213	45	28	8	100%	3.9	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	3.8%	6.27	5.04	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	8	34	6	2	1	100%	8.2	16.8%	6.7%	10.1%	3.5%	4.57	4.82	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	66	293	62	32	11	—	—	21.1%	11.0%	10.0%	3.8%	5.87	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	133	562	101	38	19	100%	6.1	18.0%	6.7%	11.2%	3.4%	4.63	4.70	+0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	131	554	101	38	19	100%	6.0	18.3%	6.9%	11.4%	3.5%	4.66	4.71	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	127	537	98	38	19	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.1%	11.2%	3.5%	4.71	4.77	+0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	20	20	122	513	91	38	19	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	3.7%	4.83	4.92	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	114	483	83	37	19	100%	6.0	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	3.9%	5.01	5.12	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	64	270	49	18	10	100%	5.8	18.0%	6.7%	11.2%	3.7%	4.78	4.85	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	87	367	67	25	14	100%	6.2	18.3%	6.9%	11.4%	3.7%	4.81	4.86	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	16	16	98	414	76	29	16	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.1%	11.2%	3.8%	4.87	4.93	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	17	17	101	426	76	31	17	100%	5.9	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	4.0%	4.99	5.08	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	16	16	99	418	72	32	17	100%	6.2	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	4.2%	5.18	5.29	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	82	481	2039	359	147	82	100%	5.9	17.6%	7.2%	10.4%	4.0%	5.03	4.74	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	149	61	34	100%	5.9	17.6%	7.2%	10.4%	4.0%	5.03	4.74	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		100	87	436	1844	348	141	62	87%	4.4	18.9%	7.6%	11.3%	3.4%	3.94	4.31	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	846	160	65	28	87%	4.4	18.9%	7.6%	11.3%	3.4%	3.94	4.31	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julian Aguiar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	16.8%	6.7%	3.5%	—	4.73	18.2%	11.3%	392	-0.09	—	—	—
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	84
Jayden Murray R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP	4.50	16.9%	8.6%	3.2%	.258	4.65	18.5%	7.2%	105	+0.15	3.80	363	83
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	81
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	81
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	79
Ross Stripling R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.281	3.42	23.1%	18.2%	313	-0.90	3.05	930	78
Josh Winder R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	16.1%	6.9%	4.2%	.257	4.00	20.5%	12.0%	106	-0.90	2.66	426	78
Davis Daniel R 2022 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	17.1%	7.9%	3.7%	.261	4.32	18.4%	11.0%	282	-0.35	3.04	593	78
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	78
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	78
Jared Ruxer R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	14.0%	7.0%	3.7%	.301	6.47	13.8%	5.0%	19	+1.65	3.39	270	77
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	77
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	77
Travis Adams R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP	4.75	16.4%	9.9%	3.3%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.6%	278	-0.68	3.77	488	77
Trenton Toplikar R 2021 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP-	5.25	16.4%	9.3%	4.3%	.325	5.83	16.9%	4.2%	30	+0.58	4.32	232	77
Jeffrey Passantino R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	25	SP	4.97	18.5%	6.8%	4.7%	.298	4.72	14.8%	8.1%	41	-0.25	2.02	242	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	118	17.8%	7.1%	1.38	4.74
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75