Cole Kirschsieper prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Cole Kirschsieper P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 25 LHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%20.3%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP73

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	7	35	10	2	1	25%	1.8	28.6%	5.7%	22.9%	2.9%	5.14	2.98	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	7	35	10	2	1	25%	1.8	28.6%	5.7%	22.9%	2.9%	5.14	2.96	—
2023	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	24	15	105	444	91	45	10	62%	4.4	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	3.2%	4.39	5.07	—
2023	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	24	15	105	444	91	45	10	62%	4.4	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	3.2%	4.39	5.07	—
2023	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	24	15	105	444	91	45	10	62%	4.4	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	2.3%	4.39	3.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	10.9%	9.5%	3.0%	4.79	4.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	73	309	65	33	9	100%	6.7	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.72	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	72	305	64	32	9	100%	7.2	21.1%	10.6%	10.4%	3.1%	4.71	4.72	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	70	296	62	32	9	100%	7.0	21.1%	10.7%	10.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.79	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	67	282	59	31	9	100%	6.7	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	3.3%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	63	265	54	30	9	100%	7.0	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.5%	4.99	5.08	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	31	131	27	14	4	100%	7.8	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.65	4.64	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	45	190	40	20	6	100%	7.5	21.1%	10.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.64	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	53	224	47	24	7	100%	6.6	21.1%	10.7%	10.4%	3.0%	4.66	4.70	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	54	228	48	25	7	100%	6.8	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	3.1%	4.75	4.82	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	54	228	47	26	8	100%	6.8	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.3%	4.89	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	237	1002	209	109	31	100%	7.0	20.9%	10.8%	10.0%	3.1%	4.73	4.39	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	176	92	26	100%	7.0	20.9%	10.8%	10.0%	3.1%	4.73	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		28	16	112	479	77	55	15	57%	4.0	16.1%	11.5%	4.6%	3.1%	4.43	4.92	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	29	200	858	139	99	27	57%	4.0	16.1%	11.5%	4.6%	3.1%	4.43	4.92	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Kirschsieper (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	20.3%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.74	21.0%	10.3%	216	-0.05	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	88
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	86
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	79
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	78
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	78
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	78
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	77
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	77
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	77
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SW	4.67	24.2%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.54	16.2%	6.1%	157	+0.87	2.06	402	77
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.90	20.1%	9.3%	307	+0.61	3.59	520	76
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	76
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	76
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	76
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	76
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	75
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	75
J.A. Happ L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	25	SP-	3.90	18.8%	9.4%	2.2%	.260	4.38	18.4%	8.3%	410	+0.48	3.37	1,890	75
Charlie Furbush L 2011 · 4.95 FIP	25	SW	4.95	18.0%	7.5%	4.4%	.310	2.67	28.8%	21.4%	154	-2.28	2.40	261	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	70	20.8%	10.8%	1.22	4.80
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Justin Grimm ('22)	1.9	75	23.0%	10.1%	1.17	5.10
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22