Zach Maxwell — OGILVIE

Zach Maxwell P Louisville Bats

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 275 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%26.2%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF7065

CTRL3030

CMD3035

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.8

Whiff%

p1016.4%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.366

CT+0.8 (24%)

SL (19%)

FB-2.2 (58%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	36	10	8	0	0%	1.5	27.8%	22.2%	5.6%	0.0%	4.91	3.57	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	7	36	10	8	0	0%	1.5	27.8%	22.2%	5.6%	0.0%	4.91	3.65	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	61	269	96	37	3	0%	1.8	26.9%	16.1%	10.8%	1.4%	4.11	3.65	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	61	269	96	37	3	0%	1.8	26.9%	16.1%	10.8%	1.4%	4.11	3.65	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	61	269	96	37	3	0%	1.8	35.7%	13.8%	21.9%	1.1%	4.11	2.42	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	54	237	85	37	1	0%	1.0	29.5%	14.8%	14.7%	0.4%	3.17	2.71	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	54	237	85	37	1	0%	1.0	29.5%	14.8%	14.7%	0.4%	3.17	2.71	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	54	237	85	37	1	0%	1.0	35.9%	15.6%	20.3%	0.4%	3.17	2.25	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	60	263	72	35	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.22	4.65	-0.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	60	263	72	35	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.22	4.65	-0.1
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	60	263	72	35	9	0%	1.0	27.4%	13.3%	14.1%	3.4%	4.22	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	0	23	110	25	14	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.7%	10.0%	5.5%	6.65	6.14	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	50	0	55	265	65	43	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.0%	6.1%	1.9%	5.37	4.24	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	50	0	55	265	65	43	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.0%	6.1%	1.9%	5.37	4.24	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	CIN	38	0	42	198	53	33	2	0%	1.1	26.8%	16.7%	10.1%	1.0%	4.46	3.51	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	CIN	12	0	13	67	12	10	3	0%	1.1	17.9%	14.9%	3.0%	4.5%	8.31	5.94	-0.2
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	CIN	12	0	13	67	12	10	3	0%	1.1	17.9%	14.9%	3.0%	4.5%	8.31	5.94	-0.2
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CIN	5	0	5	23	6	3	1	0%	1.1	26.2%	15.3%	10.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	CIN	5	0	5	21	6	3	1	0%	1.0	26.2%	15.3%	10.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	61	288	71	46	6	—	—	24.7%	16.2%	8.5%	2.0%	5.27	4.25	+0.2
FULL	25	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	18	78	71	46	6	—	—	91.3%	59.8%	31.5%	7.2%	17.40	6.93	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	57	0	60	251	66	37	7	0%	1.0	26.3%	14.7%	11.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.72	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	56	0	59	247	64	35	7	0%	1.0	26.1%	14.3%	11.7%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	54	0	57	241	63	35	7	0%	1.1	26.3%	14.7%	11.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.72	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	53	0	56	236	62	34	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	14.3%	11.7%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	0	141	607	155	86	21	0%	1.1	25.5%	14.2%	11.3%	3.4%	5.04	4.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	863	220	122	30	0%	1.1	25.5%	14.2%	11.3%	3.4%	5.04	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		201	0	238	1070	267	159	19	0%	1.2	24.9%	14.9%	10.0%	1.7%	4.24	3.83	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	0	200	900	225	134	16	0%	1.2	24.9%	14.9%	10.0%	1.7%	4.24	3.83	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Maxwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	27.6%	15.4%	2.7%	—	4.72	26.2%	11.7%	118	+0.13	—	—	—
Félix Bautista R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	22.7%	15.2%	2.0%	.299	2.94	33.8%	21.7%	112	-1.26	1.50	334	77
Brian Ellington R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	27.5%	14.3%	1.6%	.252	5.01	24.6%	9.0%	97	+1.57	2.75	233	75
Jason Foley R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	20.7%	12.4%	3.4%	.309	2.88	18.4%	13.1%	189	-1.91	1.66	334	74
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	74
Tayron Guerrero R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	25	SU	3.77	19.9%	11.3%	1.7%	.291	4.94	22.0%	7.3%	135	+1.17	2.24	374	74
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	73
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	73
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	73
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2023 · 5.71 FIP	25	SU	5.71	27.0%	21.6%	3.9%	.292	3.71	28.6%	17.5%	185	-2.00	3.08	344	73
Brandan Bidois R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	22	SU	3.45	30.8%	17.5%	1.3%	.302	4.17	24.1%	9.9%	114	+0.72	2.73	136	72
Michael Petersen R 2019 · 4.52 FIP	25	SU	4.52	21.8%	17.0%	2.0%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	399	72
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	72
Daysbel Hernández R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	24	SU	4.12	27.6%	13.0%	3.1%	.286	2.64	27.6%	15.9%	74	-1.48	1.89	255	72
Chad Smith R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	24	SU	4.32	19.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.274	3.93	25.2%	12.6%	86	-0.39	3.31	258	72
Luke Murphy R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.5%	13.3%	2.2%	.377	3.73	22.4%	13.9%	152	-0.37	2.67	245	71
Michel Baez R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SU	4.96	22.3%	12.8%	3.9%	.292	6.25	12.7%	-3.4%	36	+1.29	3.12	297	71
Cody Carroll R 2018 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	24.2%	12.7%	2.0%	.282	6.46	24.3%	12.3%	24	+2.73	3.67	311	71
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	71
Trey Benton R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	23.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.366	2.92	18.1%	7.4%	31	-1.57	2.92	139	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	26.6%	14.8%	1.11	4.69
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64