Zach Maxwell

P Louisville Bats

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 275 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	53	54	3.17	2.25	35.9%	15.6%	—	K 30.3% · BB 14.8% · FIP 2.65
2025	24	MIX2 levels	59	60	4.22	4.41	27.4%	13.3%	0.1	K 23.1% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.59
2026	25	MIX2 levels	53	59	5.46	3.98	25.2%	15.2%	0.4	K 22.2% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.97
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	46	48	4.55	4.68	25.8%	15.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ80% MLB	27	MLBCIN	41	43	4.62	4.69	25.6%	15.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ86% MLB	28	MLBCIN	38	40	4.68	4.74	25.3%	14.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%21

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsBrian Ellington (age 26) · Brandon Cunniff (age 26) · José A. Váldez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.55

FIP4.68

K%25.8%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.8

Whiff%

p1016.4%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.366

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	7	36	10	8	0	0%	1.5	27.8%	22.2%	5.6%	0.0%	4.91	3.57	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	7	36	10	8	0	0%	1.5	27.8%	22.2%	5.6%	0.0%	4.91	3.65	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	61	269	96	37	3	0%	1.8	26.9%	16.1%	10.8%	1.4%	4.11	3.65	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	61	269	96	37	3	0%	1.8	35.7%	13.8%	21.9%	1.1%	4.11	2.42	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	54	237	85	37	1	0%	1.0	30.3%	14.8%	15.5%	0.4%	3.17	2.65	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	54	237	85	37	1	0%	1.0	30.3%	14.8%	15.5%	0.4%	3.17	2.65	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	54	237	85	37	1	0%	1.0	35.9%	15.6%	20.3%	0.4%	3.17	2.25	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	60	263	72	35	9	0%	1.0	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	3.3%	4.22	4.59	-0.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	60	263	72	35	9	0%	1.0	23.1%	12.7%	10.4%	3.3%	4.22	4.59	-0.0
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	60	263	72	35	9	0%	1.0	27.4%	13.3%	14.1%	3.4%	4.22	4.41	+0.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	59	282	71	43	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.1%	8.2%	1.8%	5.46	3.97	+0.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	59	282	71	43	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.1%	8.2%	1.8%	5.46	3.97	+0.4
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	59	282	71	43	5	0%	1.1	25.2%	15.2%	9.9%	1.8%	5.46	3.98	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	0	23	110	25	14	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.7%	10.0%	5.5%	6.65	6.14	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	46	0	48	203	52	31	5	0%	1.0	25.8%	15.5%	10.3%	2.6%	4.55	4.68	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	51	0	53	225	57	34	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	15.0%	10.6%	2.7%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	44	0	46	195	49	29	5	0%	1.1	25.3%	14.7%	10.6%	2.8%	4.68	4.74	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	41	0	43	182	46	27	5	0%	1.0	25.6%	15.0%	10.6%	2.7%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	38	0	40	169	43	25	5	0%	1.1	25.3%	14.7%	10.6%	2.8%	4.68	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		99	0	106	458	114	66	16	0%	1.1	24.8%	14.3%	10.4%	3.4%	5.09	4.68	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	869	216	125	30	0%	1.1	24.8%	14.3%	10.4%	3.4%	5.09	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		204	0	242	1087	277	159	19	0%	1.2	25.5%	14.7%	10.9%	1.7%	4.28	3.74	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	0	200	900	230	132	15	0%	1.2	25.5%	14.7%	10.9%	1.7%	4.28	3.74	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 46 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.42 (+0.18)K% 27.4% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.44%	—	×0.860	23.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.35%	—	×0.900	13.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 50 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.59 (+0.47)K% 26.8% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.82%	—	×0.860	23.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.09%	—	×0.900	12.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷0.901	×1.100	3.33%

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 39 IPFIP 2.65 → 2.83 (+0.18)K% 32.4% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.40%	—	×0.860	27.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.64%	—	×0.900	14.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.55%

Result: FIP 2.65 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 15 IPFIP 1.13 → 2.08 (+0.94)K% 46.6% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	46.55%	—	×0.810	37.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.52%	—	×1.100	17.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.089	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 1.13 → 2.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 36 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.53 (+1.18)K% 35.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.03%	—	×0.740	25.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.65%	—	×1.180	17.29%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷1.060	×1.300	0.78%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 26 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.83 (+1.26)K% 36.6% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.61%	—	×0.770	28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.150	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.951	×1.250	2.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 5 IPFIP 4.12 → 5.20 (+1.08)K% 24.1% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.740	17.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.14%	—	×1.180	28.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.883	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.12 → 5.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Maxwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.71	25.4%	10.6%	100	+0.03	—	—	—
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	72
José A. Váldez R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	22.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.205	4.22	19.6%	8.3%	211	-0.28	4.02	328	72
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	72
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	72
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	72
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	72
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	71
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	71
Ray Black R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	30.0%	24.6%	0.9%	.281	3.88	34.6%	23.4%	94	-0.27	2.95	150	71
Seranthony Domínguez R 2021 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	22.3%	13.3%	1.8%	.316	3.87	25.9%	16.6%	160	-0.03	2.38	490	71
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	71
Michael Petersen R 2019 · 4.52 FIP	25	SU	4.52	21.8%	17.0%	2.0%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	406	71
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	70
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	70
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	70
Stevie Branche R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	25.6%	19.1%	1.2%	.274	5.67	19.3%	1.7%	28	+1.63	3.23	162	70
Joe Colón J R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	21.1%	13.8%	1.5%	.214	4.25	20.4%	8.3%	33	+0.37	3.27	113	70
Eric Reyzelman R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	30.3%	15.6%	2.4%	.261	4.78	24.5%	8.6%	94	+0.97	3.81	117	70
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	63	25.2%	14.8%	1.18	4.86
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*