Zach Maxwell
P
Louisville Bats
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 275 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP3.12
SIERA3.10
K%24.9%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%11.8%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
OFP—45
STUF7065
CTRL—30
CMD3035
K†6565
CT+0.8 (24%)
SL (19%)
FB-2.2 (58%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 5 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 10 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 34 | 0 | 61 | 269 | 96 | 37 | 3 | 26.9% | 16.1% | 1.5% | 4.11 | 3.66 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 53 | 0 | 54 | 237 | 85 | 37 | 1 | 30.8% | 16.6% | 0.4% | 3.17 | 2.83 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 59 | 0 | 60 | 263 | 72 | 35 | 9 | 23.6% | 14.8% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 8 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 8 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.10 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 18 | — | 18 | 75 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 27.9% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 24 | 109 | 29 | 17 | 3 | 26.5% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 5.53 | 3.31 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 52 | 27 | 5 | 27.8% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 51 | 26 | 5 | 27.5% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 50 | 26 | 5 | 27.2% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 48 | 25 | 5 | 27.0% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 46 | 24 | 5 | 26.8% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 44 | 24 | 5 | 26.6% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 42 | 23 | 5 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 26.0% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 25.6% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 35 | 21 | 5 | 25.2% | 15.0% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 24.8% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 159 | 0 | 189 | 839 | 225 | 135 | 15 | 26.8% | 16.1% | 1.7% | 4.05 | 3.84 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 0 | 200 | 888 | 238 | 143 | 16 | 26.8% | 16.1% | 1.7% | 4.05 | 3.84 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Maxwell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 27.9% | 15.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.51 | 27.5% | 13.2% | 132 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| David Morgan R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.37 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 148 | 74 |
| Félix Bautista R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 22.7% | 15.2% | 2.0% | .299 | 2.98 | 33.8% | 21.7% | 112 | -1.23 | 1.45 | 334 | 74 |
| José Cisnero R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 74 |
| Conor Grammes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.58 | 28.6% | 16.8% | 3.2% | .293 | 4.50 | 20.8% | 1.1% | 128 | -0.08 | 4.08 | 171 | 73 |
| Brian Ellington R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.44 | 27.5% | 14.3% | 1.6% | .252 | 4.95 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 97 | +1.51 | 2.75 | 233 | 73 |
| Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.37 | 27.5% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.59 | 26.4% | 17.8% | 96 | +0.22 | 2.27 | 183 | 73 |
| Daysbel Hernández R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 27.6% | 13.0% | 3.4% | .286 | 2.72 | 28.5% | 15.6% | 74 | -1.55 | 1.89 | 234 | 73 |
| Troy Taylor R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 22.8% | 14.6% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 130 | 72 |
| Peyton Gray R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 72 |
| Ray Black R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 35.1% | 25.7% | 2.1% | .324 | 3.42 | 34.9% | 19.6% | 80 | -1.15 | 2.95 | 150 | 70 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | .282 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 1.3% | 95 | +0.94 | 3.72 | 164 | 70 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 70 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 70 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 5.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.73 | 27.0% | 21.6% | 4.0% | .292 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 16.4% | 120 | -1.72 | 3.16 | 279 | 70 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2025 · 3.46 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.46 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.11 | 29.3% | 21.4% | 130 | -0.35 | 1.69 | 545 | 70 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 70 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.40 | 28.4% | 15.2% | 1.4% | .310 | 2.26 | 34.4% | 23.1% | 152 | -1.14 | 1.79 | 392 | 70 |
| Tayron Guerrero R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 4.95 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 135 | +1.13 | 2.96 | 316 | 69 |
| Logan Boyer R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .267 | 4.91 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.70 | 121 | 69 |
| Jason Foley R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.79 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .309 | 2.87 | 18.4% | 13.1% | 189 | -1.92 | 1.66 | 297 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.