Zach Maxwell
P
Louisville Bats
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 275 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%27.9%
BB%16.9%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.7
Whiff%
p1015.4%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.401
CT+0.8 (24%)
SL (19%)
FB-2.2 (58%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.8% | 22.2% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.57 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.8% | 22.2% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 61 | 269 | 96 | 37 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 26.9% | 16.1% | 10.8% | 1.5% | 4.11 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 61 | 269 | 96 | 37 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 35.7% | 13.8% | 21.9% | 1.1% | 4.11 | 2.42 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 54 | 237 | 85 | 37 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 0.4% | 3.17 | 2.81 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 54 | 237 | 85 | 37 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.9% | 15.6% | 20.3% | 0.4% | 3.17 | 2.25 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 60 | 263 | 72 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 14.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.22 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 60 | 263 | 72 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.22 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 33 | 0 | 35 | 164 | 43 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 17.0% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 5.14 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 35 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 16.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 35 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 16.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 65 | 291 | 78 | 48 | 8 | — | — | 26.9% | 16.6% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 40 | 169 | 78 | 48 | 8 | — | — | 46.4% | 28.6% | 17.7% | 4.5% | 7.81 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 68 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 16.2% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 66 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 15.8% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 65 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 16.2% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 63 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 15.8% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 4.94 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 153 | 0 | 162 | 697 | 185 | 111 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 15.9% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 4.79 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 860 | 228 | 137 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 15.9% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 184 | 0 | 217 | 969 | 256 | 157 | 19 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.4% | 16.2% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 4.10 | 3.99 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 0 | 200 | 892 | 236 | 145 | 17 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.4% | 16.2% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 4.10 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Maxwell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 28.8% | 16.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.95 | 26.9% | 10.8% | 118 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Félix Bautista R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 22.7% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .299 | 2.88 | 33.8% | 21.7% | 112 | -1.40 | 1.43 | 334 | 76 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 27.0% | 21.6% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.90 | 28.7% | 16.6% | 164 | -1.71 | 3.30 | 323 | 75 |
| Conor Grammes R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.03 | 28.6% | 16.8% | 4.0% | .293 | 4.37 | 20.8% | 1.1% | 128 | -0.66 | 3.89 | 171 | 73 |
| Troy Taylor R 2025 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 23.5% | 16.1% | 1.4% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 162 | 73 |
| Hunter Bigge R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 23.4% | 15.4% | 1.8% | .316 | 4.44 | 27.8% | 16.5% | 86 | +0.39 | 3.39 | 213 | 72 |
| Michael Petersen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.44 | 21.8% | 17.0% | 1.9% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 381 | 71 |
| José Cisnero R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 71 |
| Christopher Troye R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.42 | 24.2% | 17.0% | 4.0% | .282 | 5.50 | 19.1% | -3.8% | 30 | +0.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 71 |
| Ariel Hernández R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 24.0% | 18.9% | 2.1% | .229 | 3.83 | 19.1% | 2.2% | 55 | -0.78 | 3.74 | 192 | 71 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 70 |
| Jason Foley R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.3% | .309 | 2.91 | 18.4% | 13.1% | 189 | -1.79 | 1.66 | 314 | 70 |
| David Morgan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.58 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .265 | 3.50 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 22 | -0.08 | 3.37 | 170 | 70 |
| Jordan Sheffield R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 24.9% | 20.2% | 3.0% | .235 | 6.41 | 16.0% | 1.7% | 52 | +1.22 | 3.79 | 248 | 70 |
| Conor Larkin R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 24.4% | 16.7% | 2.9% | .233 | 4.59 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 76 | -0.14 | 2.40 | 165 | 70 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.11 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.66 | 11.8% | -2.3% | 55 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 172 | 70 |
| Jake Haberer R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 26.9% | 17.3% | 1.1% | .278 | 6.08 | 19.6% | 3.0% | 76 | +2.46 | 3.62 | 183 | 70 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 70 |
| Daysbel Hernández R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.45 | 27.6% | 13.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 2.73 | 28.5% | 15.6% | 74 | -1.72 | 1.89 | 255 | 70 |
| Matt Blackham R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 24.9% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .236 | 4.88 | 25.9% | 12.0% | 80 | +0.98 | 2.08 | 187 | 70 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 53 | 27.3% | 16.2% | 1.17 | 4.89 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |