Yan Contreras — OGILVIE

Yan ContrerasSS Dayton Dragons

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 185 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .263 / .285

PA76

HR1

K%34

BB%7

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Reds	—	84	74	7	1	1	0	9	36	1	4	1	95	202	135	338	41	184	43	11	163	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	AZL Reds	—	84	69	10	1	2	0	14	25	1	4	1	145	298	217	515	72	227	30	17	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	20	17	3	0	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	176	300	294	594	118	375	45	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	20	17	3	0	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	176	300	294	594	118	375	45	5	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	84	75	8	3	0	0	5	55	4	6	1	107	202	147	349	40	400	65	6	172	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	2 teams	—	84	73	15	5	0	0	7	39	4	6	1	205	310	274	583	68	441	46	8	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	129	112	10	2	1	1	10	64	4	8	2	89	190	152	342	62	188	50	8	150	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	129	108	13	2	1	2	14	48	4	8	2	120	246	213	459	93	186	37	11	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	CIN	—	76	69	13	3	0	1	6	26	1	2	0	188	263	275	539	87	287	34	8	253	52	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	CIN	30%	129	116	23	4	1	2	10	42	2	3	1	198	273	302	575	103	288	33	8	262	59	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2028	27	MLB	CIN	42%	220	198	40	8	1	4	17	70	3	5	1	202	275	313	588	111	288	32	8	267	63	-9	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.0
2029	28	MLB	CIN	48%	283	255	51	10	1	5	22	89	4	6	1	200	274	306	580	106	288	31	8	269	64	-11	+1	-1	+3	+8	-0.0
2027	26	MLB	CIN	30%	39	35	7	1	0	1	3	13	1	1	0	200	282	314	596	114	290	33	8	254	52	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	27	MLB	CIN	42%	92	84	16	3	0	2	7	29	1	2	0	190	261	298	558	107	291	32	8	259	56	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2029	28	MLB	CIN	48%	135	121	25	5	1	2	11	43	2	3	1	207	284	314	598	107	291	32	8	261	58	-6	+0	-0	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	266	240	48	9	1	5	21	85	4	6	1	200	275	308	584	108	285	32	8	259	57	-13	+1	-0	+3	+8	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	117	22	2	12	51	208	10	15	2	200	275	305	580	106	285	32	8	259	57	-32	+2	-1	+7	+18	-0.5
Career	—			—	1025	916	155	31	6	13	80	391	21	34	7	169	252	259	510	90	275	38	8	230	34	-76	+4	-1	+11	+29	-3.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	99	20	4	8	51	248	13	22	4	170	253	260	513	90	277	38	8	230	34	-48	+3	-0	+7	+18	-2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	AZL Reds	—	84	69	10	1	2	0	14	25	1	4	1	145	298	217	515	72	227	30	17	254	53	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2022	21	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	20	17	3	0	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	176	300	294	594	118	375	45	5	280	72	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2023	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	63	56	8	1	0	0	5	34	2	3	1	143	238	161	399	18	364	54	8	200	11	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2023	22	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	21	17	7	4	0	0	2	5	2	3	0	412	524	647	1.171	235	583	24	10	510	249	+4	+1	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	129	108	13	2	1	2	14	48	4	8	2	120	246	213	459	93	186	37	11	219	26	-11	+1	—	—	+4	-0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	266	5	6	203	275	313	+3	+3	-0.0	-0.0
	/162	664	12	15	203	275	313	+7.1	+7.5	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yan Contreras (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	191/263/285	93	287	1	2	34%	7%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	36	42→40	49→50	47	183/268/285	102	256	10	13	31%	9%	54	-1.4	203/302/300	97	289	8	11	29%	11%	72	-0.2	190/312/271	81	272	7	11	29%	13%	66	-0.4
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	38	39→50	53→55	39	187/246/274	87	273	6	16	32%	6%	40	-2.4	190/267/311	121	291	12	16	36%	8%	60	-1.0	179/262/313	134	284	16	16	40%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	40→29	40→45	49→60	37	191/259/277	86	288	7	12	34%	6%	48	-1.9	177/254/283	106	281	10	16	38%	8%	47	-1.9	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Jayson Langfels 2014 · AA	25	41→32	43→40	46→50	37	199/262/305	106	309	11	11	37%	6%	56	-1.3	205/280/293	88	338	7	15	38%	8%	60	-1.0	202/285/275	73	344	5	17	38%	8%	55	-0.7
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	37→28	42→45	48→50	40	187/248/281	94	262	11	15	32%	6%	43	-2.2	194/265/312	118	265	14	14	31%	8%	59	-1.1	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	38	44→40	50	44	193/277/309	116	270	12	12	32%	8%	65	-0.7	203/293/294	91	284	8	11	29%	9%	67	-0.5	196/291/271	75	277	5	10	28%	10%	57	-0.6
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	40→50	48→30	43	190/254/280	90	264	9	6	30%	7%	46	-2.0	212/278/349	137	295	17	3	32%	8%	74	-0.1	203/274/342	139	279	18	1	32%	9%	67	-0.3
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	35→33	44→45	51→55	37	184/244/295	111	265	12	16	35%	6%	46	-2.0	200/274/327	127	297	14	15	35%	8%	67	-0.5	225/305/348	123	321	11	18	31%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	37→39	42→45	47→50	38	186/242/289	103	277	10	12	35%	6%	43	-2.2	197/252/301	104	308	9	13	37%	6%	50	-1.8	206/260/308	103	297	8	9	32%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Gift Ngoepe 2015 · AA	25	40	43→45	51→50	37	192/250/302	110	306	10	14	39%	7%	50	-1.8	208/262/322	114	317	10	8	36%	6%	59	-1.1	171/250/283	112	296	11	5	43%	9%	43	-0.9
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→33	43→45	48→45	41	191/257/300	109	268	10	9	32%	7%	53	-1.5	202/261/308	106	298	10	7	33%	7%	56	-1.3	189/237/299	111	279	11	0	35%	5%	42	-0.7
✕Drake Osborn 2023 · A	25	39	44→45	49→40	42	198/262/310	112	269	11	6	30%	7%	57	-1.2	190/247/298	108	260	12	4	31%	6%	47	-1.9	181/237/285	104	244	12	2	30%	6%	37	-1.2
✕Logan Warmoth 2021 · AA	25	42→40	37→45	53→55	40	194/263/268	74	309	3	13	36%	7%	46	-2.0	197/275/304	107	312	10	20	37%	8%	61	-1.0	195/273/297	102	277	11	24	31%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Max George 2021 · A	25	39→36	40→45	54→55	41	187/268/274	87	283	7	20	34%	7%	51	-1.7	193/279/325	132	326	15	15	42%	8%	69	-0.4	148/255/300	152	246	20	20	45%	10%	51	-0.7
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Tyler Reichenborn 2023 · A	25	41→43	39→45	47→50	45	200/275/283	83	276	7	13	29%	8%	56	-1.3	207/278/312	105	288	10	11	30%	8%	64	-0.8	165/242/293	128	222	16	8	33%	8%	42	-0.6
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	34	40→45	50→45	38	172/234/264	91	270	8	7	38%	7%	33	-2.9	198/262/311	113	286	10	8	32%	7%	57	-1.2	182/252/296	114	256	10	5	31%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→28	45	50	37	195/254/318	123	282	13	12	35%	6%	56	-1.3	212/270/305	93	320	9	17	34%	6%	59	-1.1	219/278/292	73	339	7	24	35%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Aaron Schunk 2022 · A	25	38→42	39→45	50	32	182/231/263	81	299	6	12	40%	5%	31	-3.0	206/252/319	113	293	11	10	32%	5%	54	-1.4	209/254/319	110	274	10	10	27%	5%	52	-1.0