Yan Contreras — OGILVIE

Yan ContrerasSS Dayton Dragons

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 185 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .263 / .285

PA7

HR0

K%34

BB%7

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	18	ROK	AZL Reds	—	84	69	10	1	2	0	14	25	1	4	1	145	298	217	515	72	227	30	17	254	58	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2022	21	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	20	17	3	0	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	176	300	294	594	118	375	45	5	280	75	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2023	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	63	56	8	1	0	0	5	34	2	3	1	143	238	161	399	18	364	54	8	200	21	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2023	22	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	21	17	7	4	0	0	2	5	2	3	0	412	524	647	1.171	235	583	24	10	510	231	+3	+1	—	—	+0	0.4
2024	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	129	108	13	2	1	2	14	48	4	8	2	120	246	213	459	93	186	37	11	219	35	-10	+1	—	—	+3	-0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	84	74	7	1	1	0	9	36	1	4	1	95	202	135	338	41	180	43	11	163	-4	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2023	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	63	58	3	0	0	0	3	47	2	3	1	52	127	52	179		332	75	5	109	-40	-11	+0	—	—	+1	-0.9
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	21	18	5	3	0	0	1	7	2	3	0	278	381	444	825	167	514	33	5	394	153	+1	+1	—	—	+0	0.2
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	129	112	9	1	1	1	10	64	4	8	2	80	183	134	316	54	153	50	8	152	-11	-17	+1	—	—	+3	-1.4
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	84	74	7	1	1	0	9	36	1	4	1	95	202	135	338	41	184	43	11	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	—	84	69	10	1	2	0	14	25	1	4	1	145	298	217	515	72	227	30	17	254	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	INTL MLE	Gigantes de Carolina	—	20	17	3	0	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	176	300	294	594	118	375	45	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	INTL RAW	Gigantes de Carolina	—	20	17	3	0	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	176	300	294	594	118	375	45	5	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	84	75	9	3	0	0	5	54	4	6	1	120	214	160	374	40	429	64	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	84	73	15	5	0	0	7	39	4	6	1	205	310	274	583	68	441	46	8	277	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	129	112	9	1	1	1	10	64	4	8	2	80	183	134	316	54	167	50	8	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	129	108	13	2	1	2	14	48	4	8	2	120	246	213	459	93	186	37	11	219	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	84	74	7	1	1	0	9	36	1	4	1	95	202	135	338	41	180	43	11	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	84	75	9	3	0	0	5	54	4	6	1	120	214	160	374	40	378	64	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	129	114	9	1	1	1	10	64	4	8	2	79	183	132	314	53	153	50	8	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	84	75	9	3	0	0	5	54	4	6	1	120	214	160	374	40	378	64	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	129	114	9	1	1	1	10	64	4	8	2	79	183	132	314	53	153	50	8	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	25	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	7	6	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	167	286	167	452		287	29	14	253	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	30%	129	116	23	4	1	2	10	42	2	3	1	198	273	302	575	103	287	33	8	262	64	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	42%	220	198	40	8	1	4	17	70	3	5	1	202	275	313	588	111	288	32	8	267	67	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	48%	283	255	51	10	1	5	22	90	4	6	1	200	274	306	580	106	288	32	8	269	68	-11	+1	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	49%	319	286	59	11	2	6	25	101	5	6	2	206	282	322	603	115	287	32	8	269	68	-12	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	30%	39	35	7	1	0	1	3	13	1	1	0	200	282	314	596	114	290	33	8	255	64	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	42%	92	84	16	3	0	2	7	29	1	2	0	190	261	298	558	107	291	32	8	261	67	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	48%	135	121	26	5	1	3	11	43	2	3	1	215	291	347	638	132	291	32	8	263	68	-5	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	49%	157	142	30	6	1	3	12	50	2	3	1	211	282	331	613	120	290	32	8	263	68	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	423	382	79	15	2	9	33	135	6	9	2	207	280	327	608	120	292	32	8	262	48	-16	+1	-1	+5	+9	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	121	23	3	14	51	207	9	14	3	206	280	327	607	121	290	32	8	262	48	-25	+2	-2	+7	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1275	1139	202	38	8	18	100	468	25	38	9	177	259	272	531	95	279	37	8	239	48	-38	+2	-2	+10	+21	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	102	19	4	9	51	239	13	19	5	176	258	269	526	93	277	37	8	239	48	-25	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.6	423	7	9	203	275	313	+5	+6	0.0	0.0
/162	664	12	14	+7.1	+9.4	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yan Contreras (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	191/263/285	94	287	1	2	34%	7%	57	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	41→45	48→30	43	190/254/280	91	265	9	6	31%	7%	52	-2.2	214/281/329	115	298	12	3	30%	8%	73	-0.6	208/278/322	114	287	13	1	30%	9%	68	-0.5
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	38	42→40	49→50	48	189/277/293	104	262	10	13	30%	10%	65	-1.2	203/300/302	99	285	9	11	29%	11%	76	-0.4	188/304/272	85	264	8	11	28%	12%	68	-0.6
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	43→50	48→50	38	180/243/288	107	283	11	11	39%	7%	50	-2.3	191/251/293	102	287	8	10	34%	7%	53	-2.1	154/212/246	92	221	3	6	30%	7%	25	-1.0
✕Jayson Langfels 2014 · AA	25	42→34	43→40	46→50	37	203/264/308	105	309	11	11	36%	6%	62	-1.4	210/284/294	84	333	6	15	36%	8%	66	-1.1	209/291/277	68	340	4	17	36%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→50	54→45	41	191/254/290	99	287	9	12	35%	8%	54	-2.0	206/269/313	107	301	10	9	33%	8%	65	-1.2	165/225/251	86	232	8	0	31%	7%	32	-0.7
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	40→30	40→45	49→60	38	194/261/281	86	283	7	12	32%	5%	55	-1.9	180/256/281	101	278	9	16	36%	8%	53	-2.1	179/271/301	122	264	12	28	34%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Aaron Schunk 2022 · A	25	37→44	40→45	50	33	183/233/268	86	291	7	12	38%	5%	41	-3.0	212/257/326	114	296	11	10	31%	5%	63	-1.4	218/263/335	116	292	11	10	28%	5%	65	-0.9
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	35→31	44→45	49→50	44	183/254/292	109	241	13	18	30%	8%	55	-1.9	205/280/316	111	277	12	12	28%	9%	70	-0.8	179/261/273	93	244	9	8	29%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Max George 2021 · A	25	40→38	41→45	54→55	43	195/279/294	99	285	9	20	32%	8%	65	-1.2	194/281/318	124	323	13	15	41%	8%	72	-0.7	150/259/288	138	250	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Chris Williams 2022 · AA	25	37→32	44→55	50→40	44	178/267/295	117	306	11	6	42%	10%	61	-1.5	191/270/355	164	283	21	5	38%	9%	76	-0.4	176/260/345	169	249	23	4	38%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/260/306	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	205/263/313	108	295	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/310	115	279	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	175/237/270	95	265	8	7	36%	7%	43	-2.8	201/267/311	110	285	10	8	31%	7%	64	-1.3	188/261/294	106	261	9	5	30%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	40	39→45	53→55	40	192/251/280	87	274	5	16	31%	6%	50	-2.3	188/266/297	109	283	10	16	35%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/288	115	272	12	16	38%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	39	44→40	50	44	196/280/314	118	270	12	12	31%	8%	70	-0.8	201/290/289	88	281	7	11	29%	9%	68	-1.0	190/279/259	68	265	4	8	27%	9%	56	-0.7
✕Alerick Soularie 2023 · A	24	39	44→45	53→60	44	192/273/305	114	293	11	16	36%	9%	65	-1.2	199/280/310	111	290	12	26	33%	9%	70	-0.9	181/272/285	104	255	13	39	32%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Andrés Alvarez 2022 · A	25	45→31	43→45	51→50	42	220/278/331	111	306	10	15	31%	7%	72	-0.7	197/266/318	121	281	14	14	33%	8%	65	-1.2	184/256/300	115	259	13	13	33%	8%	56	-1.2
✕Brandon Hicks 2011 · AAA	25	38→40	44→50	51→50	39	193/251/307	114	272	12	15	33%	6%	57	-1.8	199/261/336	137	306	16	11	38%	7%	68	-1.0	179/258/334	155	270	19	6	39%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Tyler Reichenborn 2023 · A	25	41→43	40→45	47→50	45	199/275/284	85	276	8	13	29%	8%	61	-1.5	209/281/317	108	288	11	11	29%	8%	71	-0.8	172/253/309	136	226	17	8	31%	9%	57	-0.5
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→29	45	50	37	194/252/314	121	284	13	12	35%	6%	59	-1.6	211/268/301	90	318	8	17	34%	6%	61	-1.5	217/275/286	69	332	7	24	34%	6%	57	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps