Sayer Diederich — OGILVIE

Sayer Diederich P Frederick Keys

Age 25 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 93101vR 109

ERA4.00

FIP4.00

K%24.6%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	34	137	43	9	2	17%	2.8	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	1.3%	3.21	2.56	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	34	137	43	9	2	17%	2.8	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	1.3%	3.21	2.56	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	2	34	137	43	9	2	17%	2.8	31.4%	6.6%	24.8%	1.5%	3.21	2.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	2	0	3	17	2	3	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	16.88	—	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	2	0	3	17	2	3	1	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	16.88	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	BAL	2	0	3	17	2	3	1	0%	1.4	11.8%	17.6%	-5.9%	5.9%	16.88	7.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BAL	29	0	30	128	32	10	4	0%	1.0	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	2.9%	4.02	4.01	+0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	BAL	12	0	13	55	14	4	2	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	2.9%	4.02	4.01	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	14	4	2	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.0%	16.7%	2.9%	4.02	3.63	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	215	61	31	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.0%	16.7%	2.9%	4.02	3.63	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		14	2	36	154	38	13	3	14%	2.6	24.4%	8.6%	15.9%	1.8%	4.21	3.11	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	11	200	848	207	73	15	14%	2.6	24.4%	8.6%	15.9%	1.8%	4.21	3.11	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sayer Diederich (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	24.6%	8.0%	2.9%	—	4.01	24.7%	16.6%	30	+0.01	—	—	—
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	77
Michael Sansone L 2023 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	24.2%	5.2%	3.2%	.338	4.71	16.4%	10.0%	263	+1.23	3.15	291	77
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	76
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	75
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	74
Kit Scheetz L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	22.9%	8.7%	3.9%	.340	5.08	16.2%	2.6%	55	+0.66	2.34	195	74
Jake Kalish L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	17.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.231	3.90	17.0%	11.9%	352	+0.01	2.68	740	74
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	74
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	73
Tyler Webb L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	25	SU	3.80	21.6%	6.9%	3.0%	.324	3.31	24.3%	17.3%	185	-0.49	3.10	337	72
Jeff Malm L 2016 · 3.13 FIP	25	SU	3.13	22.0%	7.2%	1.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	101	72
Adam Laskey L 2023 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	21.7%	9.4%	1.5%	.331	3.67	18.0%	10.3%	167	+0.40	3.12	310	72
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	71
Jordan Jess L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	25	SU	3.64	19.3%	5.3%	2.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	136	71
Adrian Gusman L 2017 · 2.94 FIP	25	SU	2.94	20.0%	6.7%	1.2%	.358	4.31	17.9%	8.2%	40	+1.37	2.94	141	71
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	71
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	70
Brendan Nail L 2021 · 3.45 FIP	25	SU	3.45	29.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.303	4.34	20.5%	9.1%	94	+0.89	3.45	165	70
Michael Theofanopoulos L 2017 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	21.0%	9.8%	1.9%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	201	70
Locke St. John L 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	24.7%	10.1%	2.8%	.281	3.51	25.9%	15.4%	109	-0.33	3.07	389	70