Sayer Diederich
P
Frederick Keys
Age 25
LHP
5'11" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION3 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97106vR 115
ERA4.21
FIP4.21
K%23.7%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%14.8%
ROS IP16
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 2 | 34 | 137 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 17% | 2.8 | 26.0% | 7.4% | 18.6% | 1.5% | 3.21 | 2.65 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 2 | 34 | 137 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 17% | 2.8 | 31.4% | 6.6% | 24.8% | 1.5% | 3.21 | 2.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 16.88 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 0 | 16 | 69 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.21 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 19 | 86 | 18 | 9 | 3 | — | — | 21.4% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 5.99 | 3.62 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 3.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 3.82 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 207 | 69 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 14 | 2 | 36 | 154 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 14% | 2.6 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 2.0% | 4.21 | 3.20 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 11 | 200 | 848 | 207 | 73 | 17 | 14% | 2.6 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 2.0% | 4.21 | 3.20 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sayer Diederich (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.21 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.20 | 23.9% | 15.0% | 20 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 78 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 77 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 77 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.96 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .231 | 3.85 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | -0.11 | 2.68 | 740 | 76 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 75 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .340 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 2.6% | 55 | +0.75 | 2.34 | 195 | 74 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 74 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .338 | 3.46 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.54 | 1.78 | 560 | 74 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 74 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 73 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 73 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.16 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .331 | 3.75 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.59 | 3.08 | 310 | 73 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 72 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 72 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.07 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 3.5% | .324 | 3.36 | 24.3% | 17.3% | 185 | -0.71 | 3.10 | 337 | 72 |
| Jeff Malm L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 101 | 72 |
| Miguel Aguilar L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.38 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 1.2% | .273 | 3.61 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 87 | +0.23 | 2.21 | 261 | 72 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .382 | 3.44 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 206 | 72 |
| Ethan Flanagan L 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.23 | 21.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 102 | 71 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.65 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .301 | 7.84 | 8.3% | -4.8% | 10 | +4.19 | 2.87 | 186 | 71 |