Michael Sansone
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
LHP
5'9" / 195 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%13.0%
IP76
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 15 | 0 | 28 | 113 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 24.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.49 | 3.46 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Salem Red Sox | 20 | 3 | 72 | 288 | 68 | 9 | 4 | 17.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 3.11 | 3.13 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 27 | 7 | 88 | 360 | 74 | 14 | 10 | 15.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.46 | 4.27 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 3 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.72 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 64 | 22 | 10 | 19.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 85 | 359 | 73 | 26 | 11 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.85 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 64 | 23 | 10 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 64 | 23 | 10 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 63 | 23 | 9 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 60 | 23 | 9 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 57 | 22 | 9 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 54 | 22 | 9 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 51 | 21 | 9 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 48 | 21 | 9 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 44 | 20 | 8 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 40 | 19 | 8 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 10 | 204 | 819 | 149 | 38 | 23 | 18.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 3.26 | 3.66 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 10 | 200 | 803 | 146 | 37 | 23 | 18.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 3.26 | 3.66 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Sansone (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 19.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.38 | 20.4% | 13.0% | 221 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 91 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .282 | 4.14 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.64 | 3.50 | 300 | 89 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 86 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 86 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .240 | 3.29 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 184 | -0.21 | 2.82 | 414 | 85 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 85 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | .259 | 3.84 | 16.6% | 6.3% | 30 | -1.00 | 1.71 | 206 | 84 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.54 | 19.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% | .311 | 3.91 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 158 | +0.37 | 2.79 | 325 | 84 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 83 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 83 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 83 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.48 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .270 | 4.47 | 13.1% | 4.3% | 91 | +0.99 | 3.48 | 223 | 83 |
| Carson Skipper L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 82 |
| Hayden Howard L 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 200 | 82 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 82 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .257 | 4.72 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.81 | 2.70 | 655 | 82 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 82 |
| Patrick McCoy L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .336 | 4.31 | 15.4% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.51 | 3.80 | 113 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$7M |
| Totals | $11M | $9M | -$2M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.