Cy Nielson
P
Altoona Curve
Age 25
LHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111120vR 129
ERA4.87
FIP4.87
K%21.4%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 14% | 1.2 | 19.0% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 8.31 | 5.21 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 14% | 1.2 | 19.0% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 8.31 | 5.52 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 39 | 0 | 47 | 213 | 53 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 0.4% | 4.44 | 3.01 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 39 | 0 | 47 | 213 | 53 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 0.5% | 4.44 | 2.33 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 1 | 60 | 265 | 78 | 29 | 2 | 2% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 1.3% | 3.92 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 1 | 60 | 265 | 78 | 29 | 2 | 2% | 1.4 | 29.4% | 10.9% | 18.5% | 0.8% | 3.92 | 2.38 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 38 | 2 | 55 | 260 | 67 | 30 | 5 | 5% | 1.4 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 5.40 | 4.57 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 38 | 2 | 55 | 260 | 67 | 30 | 5 | 5% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 5.40 | 3.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Altoona Curve | 26 | 0 | 40 | 186 | 44 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 6.08 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 63 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.0% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.0% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 110 | 482 | 107 | 61 | 12 | — | — | 22.3% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 5.31 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.4% | 13.0% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 64 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 64 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 62 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 41 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 47 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 117 | 67 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.44 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 106 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 154 | 4 | 210 | 966 | 200 | 120 | 18 | 3% | 1.4 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 5.01 | 3.94 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 4 | 200 | 920 | 190 | 114 | 17 | 3% | 1.4 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 5.01 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cy Nielson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.87 | 21.4% | 13.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.81 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 206 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 90 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.22 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 96 | +0.29 | 3.65 | 308 | 88 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 86 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 3.96 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 25 | -0.18 | 3.26 | 128 | 86 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 86 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 85 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 84 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.13 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.78 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.65 | 4.13 | 265 | 84 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.70 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .335 | 4.27 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.57 | 3.54 | 206 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 83 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.98 | 21.7% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .342 | 3.82 | 24.6% | 10.5% | 53 | -1.16 | 3.82 | 161 | 82 |
| José Manuel Fernández L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.80 | 21.4% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .253 | 5.12 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 61 | +0.32 | 3.35 | 263 | 82 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 82 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 17.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .308 | 5.43 | 13.9% | 1.8% | 49 | +1.11 | 4.08 | 212 | 82 |
| John Beller L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.00 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 170 | 82 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.63 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .352 | 4.46 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 129 | -0.17 | 3.88 | 256 | 81 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 2.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 146 | 81 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .341 | 8.96 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.50 | 4.11 | 158 | 81 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.91 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 3.2% | .381 | 4.37 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 115 | -0.54 | 3.96 | 265 | 81 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 21.8% | 12.6% | 1.12 | 4.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |