Cy Nielson — OGILVIE

Cy Nielson P Altoona Curve

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 125

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%21.4%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	1	9	42	8	8	1	14%	1.2	19.0%	19.0%	0.0%	2.4%	8.31	5.21	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	1	9	42	8	8	1	14%	1.2	19.0%	19.0%	0.0%	2.4%	8.31	5.52	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	39	0	47	213	53	19	1	0%	1.2	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	0.5%	4.44	3.05	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	39	0	47	213	53	19	1	0%	1.2	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	0.5%	4.44	3.05	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	39	0	47	213	53	19	1	0%	1.2	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	0.5%	4.44	2.33	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	60	265	78	29	2	2%	1.4	23.1%	12.3%	10.8%	1.1%	3.92	3.30	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	60	265	78	29	2	2%	1.4	23.1%	12.3%	10.8%	1.1%	3.92	3.30	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	60	265	78	29	2	2%	1.4	29.4%	10.9%	18.5%	0.8%	3.92	2.38	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	38	2	55	260	67	30	5	5%	1.4	20.9%	12.7%	8.2%	2.6%	5.40	4.37	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	38	2	55	260	67	30	5	5%	1.4	20.9%	12.7%	8.2%	2.6%	5.40	4.37	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	38	2	55	260	67	30	5	5%	1.4	25.8%	11.5%	14.2%	1.9%	5.40	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	41	0	70	315	74	31	5	0%	1.7	19.1%	10.6%	8.6%	1.9%	4.76	3.85	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	41	0	70	315	74	31	5	0%	1.7	19.1%	10.6%	8.6%	1.9%	4.76	3.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	PIT	33	0	53	241	57	27	4	0%	1.6	23.7%	11.2%	12.4%	1.7%	5.60	3.43	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	PIT	8	0	17	74	17	4	1	0%	2.1	23.0%	5.4%	17.6%	1.4%	2.12	2.59	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.0%	8.4%	2.7%	4.81	4.81	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	76	340	79	34	6	—	—	23.3%	10.1%	13.3%	1.7%	4.76	3.93	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PIT	67	0	70	296	64	37	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.6%	9.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.74	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	66	0	69	291	64	36	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	2.8%	4.73	4.74	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	64	0	67	282	62	35	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.81	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	61	0	64	270	58	34	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.6%	9.1%	3.1%	4.86	4.93	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	PIT	30	0	31	131	29	17	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.6%	9.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.74	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	42	0	44	186	41	23	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	2.8%	4.73	4.74	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	49	0	51	215	47	27	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.77	4.81	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	50	0	52	220	48	28	7	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.6%	9.1%	3.1%	4.86	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	163	94	22	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.5%	9.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.43	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	106	25	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.5%	9.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		169	4	240	1095	225	129	18	2%	1.4	20.5%	11.8%	8.7%	1.6%	4.76	3.74	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	3	200	912	187	107	15	2%	1.4	20.5%	11.8%	8.7%	1.6%	4.76	3.74	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cy Nielson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.4%	13.0%	2.7%	—	4.76	21.9%	9.4%	206	-0.05	—	—	—
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	87
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	86
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	86
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	86
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	86
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	85
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	85
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	85
Chazz Martinez L 2023 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	22.2%	12.7%	1.7%	.361	3.43	20.5%	7.7%	135	-0.33	3.09	199	84
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	84
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	83
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	83
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	83
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	82
José Manuel Fernández L 2018 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	21.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.253	5.08	13.6%	4.9%	61	+0.33	3.35	263	82
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	82
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	82
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	20.7%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	110	+0.65	3.96	265	81
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	81
Keylan Killgore L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	21.7%	12.3%	4.1%	.342	3.73	24.6%	10.5%	53	-1.36	3.73	161	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	21.7%	12.6%	1.10	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22