Carter Rustad
P
Akron RubberDucks
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 194 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
K%22.0%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 1 | 53 | 228 | 56 | 23 | 2 | 3% | 1.6 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 0.7% | 3.23 | 3.35 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 1 | 53 | 228 | 56 | 23 | 2 | 3% | 1.6 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 0.9% | 3.23 | 2.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 27 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 48 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 3.00 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 85 | 361 | 82 | 31 | 11 | — | — | 22.8% | 8.6% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 3.56 | 4.60 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 3.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.89 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 82 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 60 | 1 | 101 | 432 | 82 | 44 | 10 | 2% | 1.7 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 3.12 | 4.06 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 2 | 200 | 855 | 163 | 87 | 20 | 2% | 1.7 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 3.12 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carter Rustad (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.27 | 22.3% | 12.7% | 37 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 94 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 90 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 89 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 89 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 87 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 87 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 87 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.57 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.47 | 3.26 | 386 | 86 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .257 | 5.16 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.98 | 3.18 | 117 | 86 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 86 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 86 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 86 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.81 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.69 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.88 | 3.16 | 253 | 86 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 85 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.28 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .312 | 3.96 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 65 | +0.68 | 3.28 | 113 | 85 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 85 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.24 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .274 | 4.67 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 38 | +1.43 | 3.24 | 172 | 85 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.02 | 4.29 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |