Carter Rustad — OGILVIE

Carter Rustad P Akron RubberDucks

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 194 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%20.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	53	228	56	23	2	3%	1.6	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	0.9%	3.23	3.43	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	53	228	56	23	2	3%	1.6	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	0.9%	3.23	3.43	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	1	53	228	56	23	2	3%	1.6	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	0.9%	3.23	2.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	42	0	78	323	75	20	9	0%	1.9	18.8%	6.8%	12.0%	3.3%	3.12	4.21	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	42	0	78	323	75	20	9	0%	1.9	18.8%	6.8%	12.0%	3.3%	3.12	4.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CLE	42	0	78	323	75	20	9	0%	1.9	23.2%	6.2%	17.0%	2.8%	3.12	3.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CLE	73	0	76	323	67	35	9	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.7%	4.59	4.58	-0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	72	0	75	318	67	35	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	2.8%	4.58	4.60	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	70	0	73	308	65	34	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	66	0	70	294	61	33	9	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.79	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	66	277	57	32	9	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	3.2%	4.87	4.97	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	CLE	32	0	34	144	30	16	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.7%	4.59	4.58	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	46	0	48	203	42	22	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	2.8%	4.58	4.60	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	52	0	55	232	49	25	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.9%	10.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	54	0	57	241	50	27	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.79	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	CLE	53	0	56	236	48	27	8	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	3.2%	4.87	4.97	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	0	249	1053	219	117	31	0%	1.0	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.69	4.36	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	94	25	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.69	4.36	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		75	1	131	551	104	48	13	1%	1.7	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	2.3%	3.16	3.89	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	2	200	841	159	74	20	1%	1.7	18.9%	8.8%	10.1%	2.3%	3.16	3.89	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carter Rustad (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.2%	11.2%	2.6%	—	4.62	20.9%	10.0%	225	-0.02	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	89
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	89
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	88
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	87
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	87
Guido Knudson R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	25	SU	3.50	20.7%	11.1%	1.4%	.255	4.69	17.5%	6.7%	47	+1.19	3.50	106	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	86
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	86
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	86
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	86
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	66	20.7%	11.1%	1.11	4.67
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59