Blake Walston
P
Reno Aces
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 175 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.61
FIP4.74
xFIP5.31
SIERA4.65
K%20.3%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%9.2%
IP100
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p2722.1%
K%
p4721.7%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
FB+2.0 (36%)
CT (18%)
SI (4%)
CU (13%)
SL-1.0 (16%)
CH-4.0 (16%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 3 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 19 | 19 | 96 | 406 | 117 | 33 | 16 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 3.76 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 21 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 25 | 25 | 124 | 532 | 137 | 46 | 16 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.42 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 22 | AAA | Reno Aces | 30 | 30 | 149 | 666 | 104 | 93 | 9 | 13.7% | 14.7% | 1.5% | 4.52 | 4.61 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 21 | 15 | 83 | 376 | 86 | 40 | 12 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.46 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 94 | 49 | 13 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 97 | 49 | 13 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 97 | 49 | 14 | 20.9% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 108 | 455 | 93 | 48 | 14 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 88 | 47 | 13 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 82 | 46 | 13 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 97 | 409 | 77 | 44 | 13 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 17 | 17 | 92 | 391 | 70 | 43 | 13 | 18.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 5.15 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 88 | 371 | 64 | 42 | 13 | 17.3% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 58 | 40 | 12 | 16.6% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 77 | 327 | 58 | 36 | 12 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.34 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 91 | 457 | 1997 | 379 | 229 | 61 | 19.0% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.61 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 873 | 166 | 100 | 27 | 19.0% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.61 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Walston (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.65 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 327 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.49 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.22 | 1.78 | 560 | 84 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 81 |
| Brennan Bernardino L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.41 | 18.9% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .325 | 3.32 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 54 | -1.09 | 2.52 | 406 | 81 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.18 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 145 | 81 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 80 |
| Kyle Ryan L 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.65 | 16.2% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .350 | 4.49 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 143 | -0.16 | 2.84 | 489 | 79 |
| Walter Pennington L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .296 | 3.26 | 25.7% | 15.9% | 99 | -0.81 | 2.49 | 261 | 79 |
| Ryne Slack L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 17.4% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .308 | 5.57 | 13.9% | 1.8% | 49 | +1.18 | 4.08 | 212 | 79 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 78 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2028 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 78 |
| Travis Bergen L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .259 | 4.49 | 22.9% | 4.6% | 47 | -0.24 | 2.48 | 143 | 78 |
| Adam Kolarek L 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.81 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .281 | 2.61 | 20.9% | 12.0% | 183 | -1.20 | 2.20 | 504 | 78 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.91 | 15.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .236 | 4.42 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 92 | -0.49 | 4.19 | 133 | 78 |
| Brian Moran L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.53 | 17.7% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .318 | 2.78 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 80 | -1.75 | 1.81 | 421 | 77 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 77 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2029 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 77 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 1.6% | .348 | 4.16 | 25.6% | 15.1% | 25 | +0.17 | 3.29 | 128 | 77 |
| Mike Minor L 2029 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 77 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 76 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .324 | 3.32 | 24.3% | 17.3% | 185 | -0.41 | 3.10 | 337 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.558 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $9M | $14M | +$5M | ||