Blake Walston

P Reno Aces

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 175 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	AAAARI	30	30	149	4.52	4.36	15.6%	14.0%	—	K 13.4% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.36
2024	23	MIX2 levels	21	15	83	4.75	4.35	22.9%	10.6%	1.0	K 20.3% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.39
2026	25	MIX2 levels	11	0	15	3.07	4.05	18.2%	6.1%	0.1	K 16.2% · BB 5.1% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	20	20	117	4.61	4.73	18.6%	8.6%	0.9
2028PROJ80% MLB	27	MLBARI	18	18	106	4.66	4.72	18.9%	8.6%	0.8
2029PROJ86% MLB	28	MLBARI	17	17	101	4.71	4.77	19.0%	8.7%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%47

xwOBA vs22

FB Velo10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBrad Mills (age 26) · Hung-Chih Kuo (age 26) · Hunter Barco (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.61

FIP4.73

K%18.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	2	5	17	11	0	0	67%	1.7	64.7%	0.0%	64.7%	0.0%	1.80	-2.36	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	3	2	5	17	11	0	0	67%	1.7	64.7%	0.0%	64.7%	0.0%	1.80	-1.30	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	96	406	117	33	16	100%	5.0	21.7%	9.5%	12.3%	5.2%	3.76	5.31	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	96	406	117	33	16	100%	5.0	28.8%	8.1%	20.7%	3.9%	3.76	3.86	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	124	532	137	46	16	100%	5.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.3%	4.79	4.38	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	124	532	137	46	16	100%	5.0	25.8%	8.6%	17.1%	3.0%	4.79	3.68	—
2023	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	30	30	149	666	104	93	9	100%	5.0	13.4%	12.6%	0.9%	1.5%	4.52	4.36	—
2023	22	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	30	30	149	666	104	93	9	100%	5.0	15.6%	14.0%	1.7%	1.4%	4.52	4.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	83	376	86	40	12	71%	4.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.39	+1.0
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	83	376	86	40	12	71%	4.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.39	+1.0
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	15	83	376	86	40	12	71%	4.0	22.9%	10.6%	12.2%	3.2%	4.75	4.35	+1.0
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	15	66	12	4	2	0%	1.3	16.2%	5.1%	11.1%	4.2%	3.07	4.65	-0.0
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	15	66	12	4	2	0%	1.3	16.2%	5.1%	11.1%	4.2%	3.07	4.65	-0.0
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	15	66	12	4	2	0%	1.3	18.2%	6.1%	12.1%	3.0%	3.07	4.05	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	2	21	96	20	11	4	22%	2.4	20.8%	11.5%	9.4%	4.2%	4.22	5.21	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	20	20	117	494	92	43	16	100%	5.8	18.6%	8.6%	9.9%	3.1%	4.61	4.73	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	132	556	105	48	18	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	118	499	95	43	16	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	+0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	106	447	83	40	15	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.4%	4.81	4.90	+0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	94	398	71	36	14	100%	5.9	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.6%	4.98	5.09	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	106	448	85	39	14	100%	5.9	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+0.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	101	426	81	37	14	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	+0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	94	397	74	35	14	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.4%	4.81	4.90	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	86	363	65	33	13	100%	6.1	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.6%	4.98	5.09	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	66	408	1727	324	155	59	90%	5.6	18.8%	9.0%	9.8%	3.4%	4.75	4.51	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	847	159	76	29	90%	5.6	18.8%	9.0%	9.8%	3.4%	4.75	4.51	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		109	91	472	2063	386	213	63	83%	4.3	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.51	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	39	200	874	163	90	27	83%	4.3	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.51	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 12 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.65 (+0.36)K% 18.9% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.87%	—	×0.860	16.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×0.900	5.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 65 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.05 (+0.11)K% 23.2% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.21%	—	×0.860	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.24%	—	×0.900	9.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷1.124	×1.100	2.67%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 149 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.36 (+0.07)K% 15.6% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.860	13.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.96%	—	×0.900	12.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.012	×1.100	1.47%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 106 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.74 (+0.68)K% 24.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.97%	—	×0.810	19.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.50%	—	×1.100	9.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷1.094	×1.200	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hillsboro Hops · 18 IPFIP 1.19 → 2.09 (+0.90)K% 37.0% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.99%	—	×0.770	28.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.150	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.848	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 1.19 → 2.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hillsboro Hops · 52 IPFIP 4.78 → 6.24 (+1.46)K% 25.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.22%	—	×0.770	19.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.08%	—	×1.150	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	5.31%	÷0.972	×1.250	6.83%

Result: FIP 4.78 → 6.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AVisalia Rawhide · 43 IPFIP 2.70 → 4.15 (+1.45)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.44%	—	×1.180	11.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.923	×1.300	3.13%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Walston (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.79	18.8%	10.1%	356	+0.06	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	76
Hung-Chih Kuo L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	19.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.333	2.04	29.8%	22.7%	170	-1.87	1.63	287	70
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	68
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	68
Vidal Nuño L 2013 · 4.35 FIP	26	SP-	4.35	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.215	4.24	19.7%	14.3%	366	-0.11	4.00	606	68
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	67
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	66
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	66
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	66
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	66
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	66
Josh Outman L 2011 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	13.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.302	3.80	21.8%	11.8%	123	-0.23	2.95	380	65
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	1,022	65
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	65
Rodney Boone L 2024 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP-	4.56	18.1%	9.8%	3.2%	.221	3.64	18.5%	10.8%	78	-0.92	3.64	311	64
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	64
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	63
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	63
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	62
Grant Borne L 2019 · 4.20 FIP	25	SP-	4.20	14.5%	5.4%	3.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	169	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	127	18.7%	8.9%	1.28	4.71
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Tim Leary ('81-'94, 9 WAR*)	7.5	136	18.1%*	8.1%*	1.18*	4.72*
Dave Lemanczyk ('73-'80, 2 WAR*)	4.6	130	16.9%*	9.0%*	1.15*	4.83*
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Dave Stenhouse ('62-'64, 2 WAR*)	1.9	124	17.9%*	10.5%*	1.33*	4.51*
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70