Blake Walston
P
Reno Aces
Age 25
LHP
6'5" / 175 lbs
AAA
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 165 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116125vR 134
ERA4.85
FIP5.12
K%17.4%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%5.0%
ROS IP165
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p2722.1%
K%
p4721.7%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
FB+2.0 (36%)
CT (18%)
SI (4%)
CU (13%)
SL-1.0 (16%)
CH-4.0 (16%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 3 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 67% | 1.7 | 64.7% | 0.0% | 64.7% | 0.0% | 1.80 | -2.36 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 3 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 67% | 1.7 | 64.7% | 0.0% | 64.7% | 0.0% | 1.80 | -1.30 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 96 | 406 | 117 | 33 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 5.4% | 3.76 | 5.44 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 96 | 406 | 117 | 33 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 28.8% | 8.1% | 20.7% | 3.9% | 3.76 | 3.86 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 124 | 532 | 137 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 124 | 532 | 137 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 25.8% | 8.6% | 17.1% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 3.68 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AAA | Reno Aces | 30 | 30 | 149 | 666 | 104 | 93 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 13.7% | 14.7% | -0.9% | 1.5% | 4.52 | 4.59 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AAA | Reno Aces | 30 | 30 | 149 | 666 | 104 | 93 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 4.52 | 4.36 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 15 | 83 | 376 | 86 | 40 | 12 | 71% | 4.0 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.34 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 15 | 83 | 376 | 86 | 40 | 12 | 71% | 4.0 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.35 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 111 | 468 | 82 | 58 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.4% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 136 | 87 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.7% | 11.9% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.96 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 173 | 732 | 138 | 86 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.94 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 91 | 58 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 11.9% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 108 | 67 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.90 | 4.94 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 44 | 270 | 1144 | 217 | 135 | 34 | 90% | 5.5 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 4.63 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 33 | 200 | 849 | 161 | 100 | 25 | 90% | 5.5 | 19.0% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 91 | 457 | 1997 | 379 | 229 | 59 | 93% | 4.7 | 19.0% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.56 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 873 | 166 | 100 | 26 | 93% | 4.7 | 19.0% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Walston (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.12 | 17.4% | 12.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.95 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 345 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Alvarez L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .286 | 4.07 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 229 | -0.33 | 3.35 | 575 | 84 |
| Cade Gibson L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.02 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 3.8% | .306 | 3.26 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 199 | -1.76 | 2.60 | 317 | 81 |
| Misael Siverio L 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 79 |
| Darin Gorski L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.79 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .323 | 4.39 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.40 | 4.39 | 206 | 78 |
| Matt Lujan L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .326 | 5.04 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.79 | 4.25 | 227 | 78 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.95 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.17 | 3.37 | 440 | 78 |
| Jonathan Dziedzic L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 15.7% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .292 | 4.75 | 14.2% | 5.3% | 243 | +0.49 | 3.79 | 522 | 78 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 76 |
| Daniel Camarena L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.33 | 15.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .338 | 4.51 | 16.9% | 10.5% | 187 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 674 | 76 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 76 |
| Nick Raquet L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.31 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 421 | 76 |
| Patrick Monteverde L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.36 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .267 | 5.86 | 17.7% | 9.4% | 270 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 509 | 76 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 75 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 6.3% | 153 | +0.16 | 4.24 | 501 | 75 |
| Amir Garrett L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.35 | 18.7% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .302 | 3.64 | 30.3% | 19.5% | 137 | -1.71 | 3.06 | 712 | 75 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 17.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | .290 | 6.22 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 13 | +1.53 | 3.89 | 176 | 75 |
| Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 75 |
| Bruce Zimmermann L 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.13 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .299 | 4.60 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 229 | +0.47 | 2.91 | 934 | 74 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2027 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.63 | 14.5% | 5.5% | 228 | -0.89 | 3.09 | 299 | 74 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 152 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 1.10 | 4.88 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |