Ryan Pepiot

P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.4 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPD6040-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	14	9	65	2.78	3.80	25.4%	4.0%	0.9	K 24.0% · BB 3.8% · FIP 3.97
2024	26	MIX2 levels	27	27	133	3.51	3.65	27.0%	9.1%	2.0	K 26.3% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.78
2025	27	MLBTB	31	31	168	3.86	4.22	24.6%	9.0%	1.4
2027PROJ	29	MLBTB	16	16	95	4.13	4.38	25.1%	8.9%	0.6
2028PROJ	30	MLBTB	25	25	148	4.35	4.53	24.4%	9.2%	0.5
2029PROJ	31	MLBTB	23	23	138	4.59	4.76	23.7%	9.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.029First FA2030

2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$5M2029Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%63

FB Velo60

Whiff%55

xwOBA vs51

CompsTylor Megill (age 29) · Chase Anderson (age 29) · Kenta Maeda (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.13

FIP4.38

K%25.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%16.2%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

CH+4.8 (25%)

CT+3.5 (6%)

FB+1.0 (47%)

SI (2%)

CU (3%)

SL-4.0 (18%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	23	98	31	13	0	77%	1.8	20.4%	14.0%	6.5%	0.0%	1.93	3.14	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	23	98	31	13	0	77%	1.8	31.6%	13.3%	18.4%	0.0%	1.93	2.11	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	101	435	127	47	19	85%	3.9	24.4%	11.6%	12.7%	5.1%	4.62	5.29	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	101	435	127	47	19	85%	3.9	29.2%	10.8%	18.4%	4.4%	4.62	4.42	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	128	529	156	63	16	86%	4.6	26.9%	12.2%	14.7%	3.2%	2.82	4.12	+1.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	128	529	156	63	16	86%	4.6	29.5%	11.9%	17.6%	3.0%	2.82	3.77	+1.7
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	65	252	64	10	11	64%	4.6	24.0%	3.8%	20.2%	4.4%	2.78	3.97	+0.7
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	65	252	64	10	11	64%	4.6	25.4%	4.0%	21.4%	4.4%	2.78	3.80	+0.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	552	149	50	17	100%	4.9	26.3%	8.9%	17.4%	3.2%	3.51	3.78	+1.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	552	149	50	17	100%	4.9	26.3%	8.9%	17.4%	3.2%	3.51	3.78	+1.8
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	133	552	149	50	17	100%	4.9	27.0%	9.1%	17.9%	3.1%	3.51	3.65	+2.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	168	679	167	61	26	100%	5.4	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	3.7%	3.86	4.20	+1.4
2025	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	168	679	167	61	26	100%	5.4	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	3.7%	3.86	4.20	+1.4
2025	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	168	679	167	61	26	100%	5.4	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	3.8%	3.86	4.22	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			74	67	376	1537	389	141	56	91%	5.1	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	3.6%	3.54	4.09	+3.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TB	16	16	95	401	101	36	14	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.9%	16.2%	3.4%	4.13	4.38	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	25	25	148	626	153	58	23	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.6%	4.40	4.58	+0.6
2029	31	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	138	584	138	56	23	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.6%	14.1%	3.9%	4.65	4.82	+0.1
2030	32	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	128	540	124	54	22	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	4.1%	4.90	5.07	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	25	25	148	625	153	58	22	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.5%	4.35	4.53	+0.5
2029	31	MLB CTX	TB	23	23	138	583	138	56	22	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.6%	14.1%	3.8%	4.59	4.76	+0.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	TB	21	21	128	540	124	54	22	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	4.0%	4.84	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	136	790	3286	804	309	122	95%	5.5	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.7%	4.09	4.26	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	832	203	78	31	95%	5.5	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.7%	4.09	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		139	123	618	2545	641	249	93	88%	4.4	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	3.7%	3.51	4.22	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	824	208	81	30	88%	4.4	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	3.7%	3.51	4.22	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Pepiot (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	25.1%	8.9%	3.4%	—	4.81	23.7%	14.1%	414	+0.43	—	—	—
Tylor Megill R 2024 · 3.33 FIP	29	SP	3.33	27.0%	9.7%	2.4%	.301	3.33	27.4%	16.4%	83	+0.00	3.02	603	67
Chase Anderson R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.81	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.51	3.30	1,260	67
Kenta Maeda R 2017 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP	3.81	25.1%	5.9%	3.8%	.273	3.24	28.7%	21.7%	346	-0.57	2.87	1,092	62
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	62
Jameson Taillon R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	23.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.268	4.02	20.2%	15.0%	497	-0.07	3.12	1,401	62
Alexi Ogando R 2013 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	16.8%	9.3%	2.5%	.249	4.43	19.0%	8.4%	122	+0.21	2.83	538	61
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	61
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	60
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	60
Claudio Vargas R 2007 · 4.76 FIP	29	SP-	4.76	17.7%	8.4%	3.8%	.307	4.10	16.8%	8.2%	98	-0.66	3.66	765	60
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	59
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	647	59
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	58
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	299	58
Ross Ohlendorf R 2012 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	.337	3.67	20.8%	14.6%	116	-0.93	3.30	617	58
Anthony DeSclafani R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	29	SP	3.99	24.0%	6.3%	3.9%	.268	3.98	21.1%	14.5%	220	-0.01	3.38	1,014	58
Mike Clevinger R 2020 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	24.7%	8.6%	3.6%	.275	4.24	19.4%	12.2%	246	+0.15	2.28	1,236	58
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	57
Chris Bassitt R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	29	SP-	3.49	20.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.307	3.64	23.5%	16.8%	364	+0.15	2.92	1,596	57
Philip Humber R 2012 · 5.41 FIP	29	SP-	5.41	18.4%	9.3%	4.9%	.289	4.82	13.9%	6.6%	55	-0.59	2.97	362	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	112	24.5%	9.3%	1.44	4.12
Frank Lange ('10-'13, 4 WAR*)	2.5	125	26.5%*	11.1%*	1.30*	4.20*
Duster Mails ('15-'26, 4 WAR*)	2.6	129	26.5%*	10.4%*	1.24*	4.23*
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*