Dominic Canzone

RF Seattle Mariners

Age 29 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 2.081 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	26	MLBSEA	188	.196/.274/.381	8	1	80	-0.5
2025	27	MLBSEA	269	.300/.360/.481	11	3	139	1.0
2026	28	MLBSEA	533	.264/.338/.484	23	2	131	2.6
2027PROJ	29	MLBSEA	526	.264/.332/.470	22	4	126	2.2
2028PROJ98% MLB	30	MLBSEA	504	.260/.328/.461	21	2	123	1.6
2029PROJ98% MLB	31	MLBSEA	489	.255/.322/.449	20	2	118	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.081First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$4M2029Arb-2$5M2030Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA90

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Avg EV81

Barrel%79

Bat Spd76

Form.278/.346/.490 ▲ rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .266/.332/.477

CompsCorey Dickerson (age 29) · Geoff Jenkins (age 29) · Jared Walsh (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 109126vR 132

AVG/OBP/SLG.264 / .332 / .470

PA526

HR22

K%22

BB%8

BABIP301

ISO206

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

906.5%

xAVG

680.266

POWER60

Barrel%

7912.6

Avg EV

8191.2

Bat Spd

7674.1

EYE35

Chase%

9018.5%

SPEED45

Sprint

2726.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%18%▲▲14% over 76 PA (45d) · proj 22%

BB%9%·9% over 130 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.212·.214 over 117 AB (60d) · proj .211

HR/BB5.4%▼4.3% over 94 BBE (60d) · proj 6.3%

BABIP.307·.333 over 90 BIP (60d) · proj .304

SLASH.278/.346/.490▲proj .266/.332/.477

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 503 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

435

—

wRC+

106

123

▶R

wOBA

325

350

▶R

ISO

069

218

▶▶R

BABIP

349

304

◀L

22.1%

23.2%

◀L

BB%

11.8%

6.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.081 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$19M	+$18M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$12M	+$8M
2029	Arb-2	$5M	+1.2	$8M	+$4M
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$42M	+$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	146	130	46	8	1	7	15	28	1	1	1	354	425	592	1.017	238	411	19	10	444	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	193	171	45	8	3	7	17	43	3	18	3	263	340	468	808	205	309	22	9	353	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	78	69	22	4	0	3	8	17	1	1	0	319	397	507	905	188	388	22	10	401	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	364	331	94	18	1	16	28	74	5	14	2	284	349	489	838	205	324	20	8	370	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	63	55	22	7	0	6	8	6	0	1	0	400	476	855	1.331	455	372	10	13	559	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	182	173	38	13	0	6	8	32	1	1	0	220	258	399	657	179	237	18	4	290	85	-3	+0	-2	-5	+4	-0.7
2023	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	304	257	91	18	3	16	39	40	1	2	3	354	441	634	1.075	280	361	13	13	454	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	188	168	33	7	0	8	18	53	0	1	0	196	274	381	655	185	229	28	10	290	80	-5	+0	-1	-3	+4	-0.5
2024	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	130	115	33	5	0	7	12	24	1	2	0	287	359	513	872	226	302	18	9	378	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	269	243	73	11	0	11	20	59	3	3	1	300	360	481	841	181	354	22	7	369	139	+12	+0	-4	-5	+6	1.0
2025	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	197	179	53	9	0	13	18	42	0	3	2	296	360	564	925	268	323	21	9	402	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	533	477	126	28	4	23	48	110	5	2	1	264	338	484	822	220	297	21	9	360	131	+19	+0	-0	-6	+12	2.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1172	1061	270	59	4	48	94	254	9	7	2	254	320	453	774	199	290	22	8	340	116	+22	+1	-8	-19	+25	2.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	146	134	39	7	1	4	11	36	1	1	1	291	349	448	797	157	371	25	8	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	193	176	34	5	2	5	12	60	3	18	3	193	257	330	586	136	249	31	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	364	339	85	16	1	12	20	88	5	14	2	251	302	410	712	159	305	24	5	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	63	58	19	6	0	5	5	7	0	1	0	328	381	690	1.071	362	305	11	8	436	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	182	173	38	13	0	6	8	32	1	1	0	220	258	399	657	179	237	18	4	293	85	-3	+0	-2	-5	+4	-0.7
2023	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	304	272	84	15	3	12	24	50	1	2	3	309	367	518	885	210	321	16	8	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	188	170	33	7	0	8	16	53	0	1	0	194	263	376	640	182	229	28	9	286	80	-5	+0	-1	-3	+4	-0.5
2024	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	130	119	28	4	0	4	8	29	1	2	0	235	289	370	659	134	267	22	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	269	244	73	11	0	11	20	59	3	3	1	299	360	480	839	180	354	22	7	373	139	+12	+0	-4	-5	+6	1.0
2025	27	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	197	186	45	8	0	8	11	49	0	3	2	242	284	414	698	172	285	25	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	533	479	127	28	4	24	46	110	5	2	1	265	336	491	826	225	297	21	9	361	131	+19	+0	-0	-6	+12	2.6
2021	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	417	383	91	14	4	12	27	118	5	20	4	238	296	389	685	151	310	28	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	417	370	113	20	4	17	40	88	5	20	4	305	381	519	900	214	360	21	10	394	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	427	398	103	22	1	16	24	96	5	15	2	259	309	440	749	181	304	22	6	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	427	386	116	25	1	22	36	80	5	15	2	301	368	541	909	241	331	19	8	398	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	486	445	123	29	3	18	32	82	2	3	3	276	328	476	804	200	298	17	7	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	486	430	129	31	3	22	47	72	2	3	3	300	372	540	911	240	312	15	10	392	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	318	289	62	11	0	13	24	82	1	3	0	215	277	388	665	173	247	26	8	289	82	-7	+1	-1	-3	+7	-0.4
2024	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	318	283	66	12	0	15	30	77	1	3	0	233	309	435	744	201	262	24	9	326	82	-7	+1	-1	-3	+7	-0.4
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	466	430	118	19	0	19	31	108	3	6	3	274	328	451	779	177	325	23	7	341	117	+9	+0	-4	-5	+10	1.1
2025	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	466	422	126	20	0	24	38	101	3	6	3	299	360	517	877	218	341	22	8	383	117	+9	+0	-4	-5	+10	1.1
2026	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	533	479	127	28	4	24	46	110	5	2	1	265	336	491	826	225	296	21	9	361	131	+19	+0	-0	-6	+12	2.6
2026	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	533	477	126	28	4	23	48	110	5	2	1	264	338	484	822	220	297	21	9	360	131	+19	+0	-0	-6	+12	2.6
2021	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	417	382	91	14	4	12	27	118	5	20	4	238	296	390	686	152	302	28	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	427	395	103	22	1	16	24	96	5	15	2	261	309	443	752	182	305	22	6	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	486	449	123	29	3	18	32	82	2	3	3	274	328	472	800	198	290	17	7	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	318	290	62	11	0	13	24	82	1	3	0	214	277	386	663	172	245	26	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	466	429	118	19	0	19	31	108	3	6	3	275	328	452	780	177	325	23	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	533	477	127	28	4	24	46	110	5	2	1	266	336	493	829	226	297	21	9	361	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	318	290	62	11	0	13	24	82	1	3	0	214	277	386	663	172	245	26	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	466	429	118	19	0	19	31	108	3	6	3	275	328	452	780	177	325	23	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	533	477	127	28	4	24	46	110	5	2	1	266	336	493	829	226	297	21	9	361	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	469	423	113	23	3	20	39	102	4	4	1	267	335	478	812	211	304	22	8	355	126	+15	+0	-1	-5	+10	2.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	526	472	125	25	3	22	44	114	5	4	1	264	332	470	802	206	301	22	8	351	126	+17	+0	-1	-6	+11	2.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	98%	514	463	122	24	3	22	42	114	4	2	1	263	330	468	799	205	301	22	8	350	123	+14	+0	-3	-6	+11	1.7
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	98%	499	452	116	23	2	21	40	112	4	2	1	258	324	457	781	199	297	22	8	343	118	+11	+0	-4	-5	+11	1.2
2030	32	MLB MLE	SEA	98%	480	435	109	21	2	19	38	110	4	2	0	251	317	441	758	190	291	23	8	333	112	+7	+0	-5	-5	+10	0.8
2031	33	MLB MLE	SEA	98%	450	409	99	19	2	17	35	106	3	1	0	242	307	422	729	180	283	24	8	321	104	+2	+0	-5	-5	+10	0.2
2032	34	MLB MLE	SEA	94%	404	367	85	15	1	15	31	98	3	1	0	231	295	399	694	167	273	24	8	307	94	-3	+0	-6	-4	+9	-0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	98%	504	454	117	23	2	21	41	111	4	2	1	260	328	461	788	201	298	22	8	346	123	+14	+0	-3	-5	+11	1.6
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	98%	489	442	112	22	2	20	40	110	4	2	1	255	322	449	771	194	294	22	8	339	118	+10	+0	-4	-5	+11	1.2
2030	32	MLB CTX	SEA	98%	470	425	105	20	2	18	38	108	4	2	0	248	314	434	748	186	288	23	8	329	112	+7	+0	-5	-5	+10	0.8
2031	33	MLB CTX	SEA	98%	441	400	96	18	2	16	35	104	3	1	0	239	305	415	720	176	280	24	8	318	104	+2	+0	-5	-5	+10	0.2
2032	34	MLB CTX	SEA	94%	378	344	78	14	1	13	29	92	2	1	0	229	293	392	686	164	270	24	8	304	94	-3	+0	-5	-4	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3454	3126	778	156	13	136	277	779	26	15	4	249	315	438	753	189	288	23	8	332	112	+52	+1	-30	-44	+75	5.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	146	29	2	26	52	147	5	3	1	248	314	437	751	189	287	23	8	332	112	+10	+0	-6	-8	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5520	5022	1281	250	25	219	414	1250	44	61	16	255	317	446	763	191	296	23	8	333	112	+69	+2	-32	-50	+88	7.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	151	29	3	26	49	147	5	7	2	255	318	447	765	191	296	23	8	333	112	+11	+0	-5	-8	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jim Lemon'50-'63 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,870 PA	5.8	3,870	164	13	258*	323*	481*	-42	-16	12.6	13.4
/162	664	28	2	-7.3	-2.8	2.2	pk7: 14
#2Seth Smithlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,076 PA	6.1	4,076	126	22	260	343	445	-44	-36	14.0	13.3
/162	664	21	4	-7.1	-5.9	2.3	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.0	3,980	162	19	255	317	451	-43	-28	12.9	12.9
/162	664	27	3	-7.1	-4.7	2.2	pk7: 13
#3Ryan Ludwicklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,938 PA	5.9	3,938	150	17	261	330	451	-42	-34	11.9	12.8
/162	664	25	3	-7.0	-5.8	2.0	pk7: 14
#4Henry Rodriguez'92-'02 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,343 PA	5.0	3,343	160	10	247*	307*	472*	-39	-10	9.3	10.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.7	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 11
#5Walton Cruise'14-'24 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,650 PA	4.0	2,650	30	49	262*	344*	440*	-20	-17	9.3	10.0
/162	664	8	12	-5.0	-4.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#6Mitch Hanigerlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,089 PA	4.7	3,089	130	19	250	324	448	-31	-36	7.8	8.4
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-7.8	1.7	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dominic Canzone (OGILVIE)	29	55	60	45	35	264/332/473	209	304	23	4	22%	8%	126	+2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Corey Dickerson 2018 · MLB	29	51→60	58→65	41→50	41	265/303/476	211	311	26	3	24%	5%	116	+2.5	278/313/469	191	318	20	6	19%	5%	118	+2.6	284/317/468	185	319	18	6	17%	4%	120	+1.6
●Geoff Jenkins 2003 · MLB	29	50→57	59→65	46→45	45	262/325/479	217	308	27	7	24%	7%	124	+3.1	271/335/486	215	316	26	3	22%	7%	130	+3.5	275/341/493	217	321	26	1	22%	7%	134	+3.9
✕Jared Walsh 2022 · MLB	29	50→53	62→60	45→30	45	266/326/497	231	319	30	3	26%	7%	129	+3.4	214/278/378	164	292	21	4	33%	8%	84	+0.1	180/250/318	138	256	18	2	36%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Matt Adams 2018 · MLB	29	48→56	61→65	43→40	44	257/304/478	221	292	29	3	24%	6%	117	+2.6	243/296/475	232	282	34	3	27%	6%	114	+2.3	209/258/400	191	252	29	0	31%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Eddie Rosario 2020 · MLB	28	52→55	59→60	45→50	44	277/307/484	207	290	28	6	16%	4%	120	+2.8	251/294/436	185	268	24	9	17%	6%	103	+1.5	239/287/405	166	275	20	8	21%	6%	93	+0.6
✕Trey Mancini 2021 · MLB	29	51→61	57→60	46→40	49	265/332/467	201	306	25	3	22%	8%	124	+3.1	246/316/408	162	300	19	2	24%	8%	105	+1.7	239/310/388	149	296	17	0	24%	8%	98	+1.0
✕Bryan LaHair 2012 · MLB	29	47→56	60→65	43→40	43	253/304/470	216	305	29	3	27%	7%	115	+2.4	239/299/414	175	314	22	6	30%	8%	100	+1.3	213/278/340	128	288	15	3	30%	8%	74	-0.4
●Mike Yastrzemski 2021 · MLB	30	50	59→65	45→50	49	260/333/485	225	316	26	6	26%	9%	128	+3.4	236/319/455	219	281	26	6	25%	10%	117	+2.6	224/312/438	214	265	25	4	25%	10%	111	+1.8
✕Alex Dickerson 2021 · MLB	31	53→56	59→60	47→45	49	275/340/491	216	307	26	4	20%	8%	132	+3.7	230/292/403	173	273	21	4	24%	7%	95	+0.9	209/270/367	159	249	20	1	25%	6%	77	-0.2
●Justin Bour 2017 · MLB	29	50→55	57→65	46→40	49	263/319/455	193	286	26	3	19%	8%	116	+2.5	251/330/460	209	288	28	3	23%	10%	122	+2.9	238/328/447	209	275	29	2	25%	11%	118	+1.9
✕Stephen Piscotty 2020 · MLB	29	49→54	56→60	44→45	49	256/322/446	191	287	24	4	20%	8%	116	+2.5	235/292/393	158	292	20	7	26%	7%	93	+0.8	213/267/348	135	278	18	7	30%	6%	72	-0.2
●Cody Ross 2010 · MLB	29	51→55	58→65	48→45	45	268/320/479	211	304	25	7	21%	6%	123	+3.0	260/318/437	177	307	20	7	22%	7%	112	+2.2	256/317/430	175	303	20	6	22%	8%	111	+1.8
●Kyle Seager 2017 · MLB	29	52→60	57→60	42→50	52	271/335/475	203	287	25	5	16%	8%	127	+3.3	246/310/445	199	267	25	3	19%	8%	111	+2.1	235/300/432	197	255	25	2	19%	8%	105	+1.7
✕Micah Hoffpauir 2009 · MLB	29	50→48	59→60	47→40	44	264/305/480	216	289	26	5	20%	5%	118	+2.6	235/287/421	186	260	22	5	19%	6%	97	+1.1	215/274/390	174	234	21	2	19%	7%	85	+0.2
●Anthony Santander 2024 · MLB	29	46→48	58→65	43→45	49	245/313/451	206	273	27	4	22%	8%	114	+2.3	228/302/443	215	246	30	4	22%	9%	108	+1.9	214/291/442	228	216	34	1	21%	9%	104	+1.3
●Avisaíl García 2020 · MLB	29	53→63	55→60	47→50	42	273/320/460	186	325	24	9	24%	6%	118	+2.7	253/313/420	167	309	21	9	25%	6%	106	+1.8	243/304/391	149	302	20	8	26%	6%	98	+0.7
●Adam LaRoche 2009 · MLB	29	51→53	58→65	40	51	268/333/482	215	307	25	2	22%	9%	128	+3.3	256/321/451	195	310	23	3	24%	9%	116	+2.5	249/331/445	196	278	26	3	21%	11%	119	+2.8
●Brian Daubach 2002 · MLB	30	48→52	58→60	47→40	50	253/324/468	216	293	25	3	23%	9%	122	+2.9	252/336/444	192	309	22	4	24%	10%	120	+2.8	250/334/430	180	299	21	2	23%	10%	117	+1.7
●Adam Lind 2011 · MLB	28	51→61	57→60	45→40	46	265/315/469	204	297	24	2	20%	6%	118	+2.7	260/311/447	187	292	25	2	20%	7%	112	+2.2	285/350/467	182	324	20	0	18%	9%	131	+2.8
●Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 2022 · MLB	28	52→61	57→60	40→45	45	273/318/473	200	307	25	5	20%	6%	120	+2.8	271/319/433	162	308	18	5	18%	6%	112	+2.2	270/318/426	156	305	18	5	18%	5%	110	+1.9

Dominic Canzone

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps