Victor Mesa Jr.

RF Tampa Bay Rays
Age 25 L/L 5'11" / 195 lbs MLB HR -6%H +4% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2030
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2031
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AAAMIA355.259/.322/.43013576—.228/.276/.362
202523MLBMIA38.188/.297/.3441086-0.3
202624MLBTB262.260/.328/.4981491281.1
2027PROJ25MLBTB380.246/.317/.4271491080.9
2028PROJ98% MLB26MLBTB407.247/.318/.4311591101.0
2029PROJ98% MLB27MLBTB413.246/.317/.4281591091.0
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2
2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$5M2030Arb-4$6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026
Whiff%90
Chase%90
xwOBA68
Barrel%64
Speed63
Bat Spd63
Form.264/.330/.469 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .244/.313/.429
CompsColby Rasmus (age 25) · Dominic Canzone (age 26) · Josh VanMeter (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†108
AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .317 / .427
PA380
HR14
SB9
K%22
BB%9
BABIP283
ISO185
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +3.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+4BATRUN: +1.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -4.1 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +8.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+8REPTotal WAR: +1.70+1.7WAR
0.01.12.21.71.01.00.827282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 60 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026
CONTACT60
Whiff%
901.3%
xAVG
440.246
POWER60
Barrel%
6410.3
Avg EV
5789.6
Bat Spd
6372.7
EYE50
Chase%
904.9%
SPEED50
Sprint
6328.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%18%▲▲16% over 83 PA (60d) · proj 22%
BB%9%·8% over 83 PA (60d) · proj 9%
ISO.206▲.250 over 76 AB (60d) · proj .185
HR/BB5.7%·6.3% over 63 BBE (60d) · proj 5.4%
BABIP.287▲.390 over 59 BIP (60d) · proj .280
SLASH.264/.330/.469▲▲proj .244/.313/.429
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut   2025
Service   2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$2M+1.7$14M+$11M
2028Arb-2$3M+1.0$7M+$5M
2029Arb-3$5M+1.0$7M+$3M
2030Arb-4$6M+0.8$3M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $10M $30M +$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201917 ROKGCL Marlins — 207176 50941 24291 74 284371398769 114327 1412 339 55 — — — — — —
202119 AJupiter Hammerheads — 474428 11421115 331023 125 266323402725 136329 227 317 61 — — — — — —
202220 A+Beloit Sky Carp — 525460 1122635 531004 104 243327346673 102296 1910 303 61 — — — — — —
202220 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 6758 12132 8141 01 207313431744 224238 2112 329 109 — — — — — —
202321 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 533483 11724218 411226 163 242309412721 170287 238 320 61 — — — — — —
202422 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 355321 8314113 28772 52 259322430752 171299 228 331 76 — — — — — —
202523 MLBMiami Marlins — 3832 6201 550 00 188297344641 156192 1313 286 86 -1 +0 -0 -3 +1 -0.3
202523 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 171153 46917 17280 41 301371510880 209328 1610 385 97 — — — — — —
202523 AJupiter Hammerheads — 3936 8100 241 00 222282250532 28250 105 250 23 — — — — — —
202624 MLBTampa Bay Rays — 262235 618314 23531 94 260328498826 238278 209 357 128 +9 +0 +0 -4 +6 1.1
202624 AAADurham Bulls — 10188 27814 13240 16 307396557953 250383 2413 415 105 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 300267 6710315 28581 94 251324479804 228267 199 348 122 +8 +0 -0 -7 +6 0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201917 ROK MLEGCL Marlins — 207186 39631 15421 74 210272290563 81252 207 250 55 — — — — — —
202119 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 474437 9714104 241363 125 222267327594 105291 295 259 61 — — — — — —
202220 A+ MLEBeloit Sky Carp — 525475 1022325 381254 104 215279303582 88271 247 258 61 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 533496 10223213 281506 163 206257339595 133262 285 258 61 — — — — — —
202422 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 355329 7512110 20932 52 228276362638 134281 266 280 76 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 3832 6201 550 00 188297344641 156192 1313 296 86 -1 +0 -0 -3 +1 -0.3
202523 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 171158 40716 12340 41 253306424730 171284 207 311 97 — — — — — —
202523 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 3937 7100 151 00 189231216447 27220 133 202 23 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 262235 608314 23531 94 255324494818 238278 209 358 128 +9 +0 +0 -4 +6 1.1
202624 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 10192 23613 9290 16 250317435752 185331 299 323 105 — — — — — —
201917 ROK MLEGCL Marlins — 207186 39631 15421 74 210272290563 81259 207 250 55 — — — — — —
201917 ROK RAWGCL Marlins — 207176 50941 24291 74 284371398769 114327 1412 339 55 — — — — — —
202119 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 474437 9714104 241363 125 222267327594 105303 295 259 61 — — — — — —
202119 A RAWJupiter Hammerheads — 474428 11421115 331023 125 266323402725 136329 227 317 61 — — — — — —
202220 A+ MLE2 teams — 592536 1152535 431415 105 215279300579 86278 247 258 61 — — — — — —
202220 A+ RAW2 teams — 592518 1242767 611145 105 239325355681 116290 1910 306 61 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 533496 10223213 281506 163 206257339595 133266 285 258 61 — — — — — —
202321 AA RAWPensacola Blue Wahoos — 533483 11724218 411226 163 242309412721 170287 238 320 61 — — — — — —
202422 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 355329 7512110 20932 52 228276362638 134284 266 280 76 — — — — — —
202422 AAA RAWJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 355321 8314113 28772 52 259322430752 171299 228 331 76 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLE3 teams — 248227 531017 18451 41 233293379672 145261 187 292 83 — — — — — —
202523 AAA RAW3 teams — 248221 601218 24371 41 271346443789 172294 1510 349 83 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLE2 teams — 363327 8415417 32821 1010 257325483808 226293 239 348 122 +9 -2 +0 -4 +8 1.2
202624 MLB RAW2 teams — 363323 8816418 36771 1010 272347514861 241306 2110 373 122 +9 -2 +0 -4 +8 1.2
201917 ROK MLEGCL Marlins — 207189 39631 15421 74 206272286558 79252 207 250 55 — — — — — —
202119 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 474444 9714104 241363 125 218267322589 104291 295 259 61 — — — — — —
202220 A+ MLE2 teams — 592539 1152535 431415 105 213279299578 85271 247 258 61 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 533494 10223213 281506 163 206257340597 134262 285 258 61 — — — — — —
202422 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 355330 7512110 20932 52 227276361637 133281 266 280 76 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLE3 teams — 248227 531017 18451 41 233293379672 145260 187 292 83 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLE2 teams — 363327 8415417 32821 1010 257325483808 226293 239 348 122 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 355330 7512110 20932 52 227276361637 133281 266 280 76 — — — — — —
202523 AAA MLE3 teams — 248227 531017 18451 41 233293379672 145260 187 292 83 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLE2 teams — 363327 8415417 32821 1010 257325483808 226293 239 348 122 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLETB 100% 380341 8315314 34832 92 244316429745 185280 229 328 108 +4 +1 -0 -4 +8 1.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXTB 100% 380341 8415314 34832 92 246317427744 181283 229 328 108 +4 +1 -0 -4 +8 0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLETB 98% 415373 9217316 37902 102 245317433750 188280 229 330 110 +5 +1 -0 -4 +9 1.1
202927 MLB MLETB 98% 421379 9317316 37922 92 244316431747 186280 229 329 109 +4 +1 -0 -5 +9 1.0
203028 MLB MLETB 98% 422380 9317316 37932 82 243314426740 184279 229 326 107 +4 +1 -1 -5 +9 0.8
203129 MLB MLETB 98% 414373 8916315 36932 62 241311420732 180278 229 323 105 +2 +0 -1 -4 +9 0.6
203230 MLB MLETB 98% 407366 8716314 36922 41 238308413721 175277 239 319 102 +1 +0 -2 -4 +9 0.4
203331 MLB MLETB 98% 392354 8215213 34901 21 234303404707 170274 239 313 98 -1 +0 -3 -4 +8 0.1
203432 MLB MLETB 98% 373337 7714212 32881 11 229298391689 163271 249 306 93 -3 -0 -4 -4 +8 -0.3
203533 MLB MLETB 98% 343310 7012211 29831 11 223290376667 154266 248 296 87 -5 -0 -4 -4 +7 -0.6
202826 MLB CTXTB 98% 407366 9016315 36882 92 247318431749 184283 229 330 110 +5 +1 -0 -4 +9 1.0
202927 MLB CTXTB 98% 413371 9116315 37902 92 246317428745 183283 229 329 109 +4 +1 -0 -4 +9 1.0
203028 MLB CTXTB 98% 414372 9116315 37912 82 244315424739 180282 229 326 107 +3 +1 -1 -4 +9 0.8
203129 MLB CTXTB 98% 406365 8916314 36912 62 242313418731 176281 229 323 105 +2 +0 -1 -4 +9 0.6
203230 MLB CTXTB 98% 399359 8615314 35912 41 239309411720 172280 239 319 102 +1 +0 -2 -4 +9 0.4
203331 MLB CTXTB 98% 384347 8214313 33891 11 235305402707 167277 239 313 98 -1 -0 -3 -4 +8 0.0
203432 MLB CTXTB 98% 366331 7613212 31861 11 230299390688 159274 238 306 93 -3 -0 -3 -4 +8 -0.3
203533 MLB CTXTB 98% 336304 6811210 28811 10 224292375666 151269 248 297 87 -5 +0 -4 -4 +7 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 34253082 74012725123 30176514 4815 240311417728 177279 229 321 89 +14 +4 -15 -40 +74 3.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650585 14024523 571453 93 239310415725 176279 229 321 89 +3 +1 -3 -8 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 63395751 133124448184 492149334 11444 231296387682 155278 248 300 89 +18 +5 -15 -45 +84 4.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650590 13725519 501533 125 232295388684 156279 248 300 89 +3 +1 -3 -8 +14 0.8