Gabriel Aguilera

P Dayton Dragons

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	11	11	32	5.62	4.60	27.0%	17.0%	—	K 17.6% · BB 22.0% · FIP 6.68
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	19	99	3.55	3.53	16.6%	11.4%	—	K 12.5% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.10
2025	24	MIX2 levels	8	4	31	5.17	2.91	21.0%	12.6%	—	K 15.4% · BB 15.3% · FIP 3.74
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	5	5	28	5.13	5.13	17.7%	13.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBCIN	2	2	10	5.07	5.09	18.3%	12.7%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsCarlos Torres (age 26) · Denny Bautista (age 25) · Jake Walters (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%17.7%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	7	44	187	35	8	3	50%	3.1	12.7%	5.3%	7.4%	2.2%	4.33	3.94	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	7	44	187	35	8	3	50%	3.1	18.7%	4.3%	14.4%	1.6%	4.33	2.94	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	46	188	57	18	1	73%	4.2	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	0.7%	2.36	3.15	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	8	46	188	57	18	1	73%	4.2	30.3%	9.6%	20.7%	0.5%	2.36	2.07	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	32	141	38	24	4	100%	2.9	17.6%	22.0%	-4.4%	4.2%	5.62	6.68	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	32	141	38	24	4	100%	2.9	27.0%	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	5.62	4.60	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	99	422	70	48	3	76%	4.0	12.5%	13.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	3.55	4.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	99	422	70	48	3	76%	4.0	12.5%	13.2%	-0.7%	0.7%	3.55	4.10	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	99	422	70	48	3	76%	4.0	16.6%	11.4%	5.2%	0.7%	3.55	3.53	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	31	143	30	18	0	50%	3.9	15.4%	15.3%	0.1%	0.0%	5.17	3.74	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	31	143	30	18	0	50%	3.9	15.4%	15.3%	0.1%	0.0%	5.17	3.74	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	4	31	143	30	18	0	50%	3.9	21.0%	12.6%	8.4%	0.0%	5.17	2.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	5	5	28	118	21	15	3	100%	5.6	17.7%	13.0%	4.7%	2.7%	5.13	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	5	5	28	117	21	15	3	100%	5.6	18.3%	12.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.07	5.09	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	10	42	8	5	1	100%	5.0	18.3%	12.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.07	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	43	8	5	1	100%	5.1	18.3%	12.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.07	4.71	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	98	20	100%	6.0	18.3%	12.7%	5.6%	2.8%	5.07	4.71	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		69	49	252	1081	164	140	14	71%	3.6	15.1%	13.0%	2.2%	1.3%	3.93	4.19	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	39	200	859	130	111	11	71%	3.6	15.1%	13.0%	2.2%	1.3%	3.93	4.19	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Aguilera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	17.7%	13.0%	2.7%	—	5.09	18.3%	5.6%	28	-0.04	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	88
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	80
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	77
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	76
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	75
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	75
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	75
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	74
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	74
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	74
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	74
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	74
Sam Whiting R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	14.6%	12.3%	1.3%	.320	4.88	17.1%	3.5%	105	+0.76	4.12	177	73
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	73
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	73
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	73
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.63	13.2%	-1.2%	29	+3.67	4.18	347	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	18.0%	12.8%	1.08	5.10
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
David Purcey ('13)	1.0	41	18.8%	12.8%	0.96	4.98