Jared Southard — OGILVIE

Jared Southard P Salt Lake Bees

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%20.4%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	8	0	8	51	4	8	2	0%	1.0	5.8%	18.5%	-12.7%	5.7%	12.38	8.10	—
2022	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	8	0	8	51	4	8	2	0%	1.0	7.8%	15.7%	-7.8%	3.9%	12.38	8.35	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	51	240	62	30	3	0%	1.3	19.4%	14.6%	4.8%	1.7%	5.29	4.22	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	51	240	62	30	3	0%	1.3	19.4%	14.6%	4.8%	1.7%	5.29	4.22	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	51	240	62	30	3	0%	1.3	25.8%	12.5%	13.3%	1.2%	5.29	3.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	229	46	27	5	0%	1.4	15.8%	13.2%	2.6%	2.7%	4.27	4.94	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	229	46	27	5	0%	1.4	15.8%	13.2%	2.6%	2.7%	4.27	4.94	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	53	229	46	27	5	0%	1.4	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	2.2%	4.27	4.13	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	66	272	70	20	8	0%	1.3	21.2%	7.1%	14.1%	3.3%	3.68	4.04	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	66	272	70	20	8	0%	1.3	21.2%	7.1%	14.1%	3.3%	3.68	4.04	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	66	272	70	20	8	0%	1.3	25.7%	7.4%	18.4%	2.9%	3.68	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	52	2	71	327	66	32	5	4%	1.4	16.8%	8.8%	7.9%	1.7%	5.17	3.72	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	52	2	71	327	66	32	5	4%	1.4	16.8%	8.8%	7.9%	1.7%	5.17	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	LAA	52	2	71	327	66	32	5	4%	1.4	20.2%	9.8%	10.4%	1.5%	5.17	3.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	LAA	67	0	70	295	62	28	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	3.1%	4.59	4.58	-0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	66	0	69	291	61	27	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	67	282	59	27	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAA	61	0	64	269	56	26	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.4%	4.73	4.79	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	LAA	32	0	34	144	30	13	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	3.1%	4.59	4.58	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	44	0	46	194	41	18	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	50	0	52	220	46	21	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	3.2%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAA	50	0	53	224	47	22	8	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.4%	4.73	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		175	0	184	775	163	74	25	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.64	4.29	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	81	27	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.64	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		185	2	249	1119	198	123	28	1%	1.3	17.7%	11.0%	6.7%	2.5%	4.84	4.36	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	2	200	899	159	99	22	1%	1.3	17.7%	11.0%	6.7%	2.5%	4.84	4.36	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Southard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.4%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.62	21.0%	11.6%	206	-0.02	—	—	—
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	92
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	89
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	88
Gavin Hollowell R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	21.2%	10.1%	3.6%	.273	3.91	25.3%	12.6%	98	-0.64	2.41	226	87
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	87
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	87
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	87
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	87
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	87
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	87
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	87
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	86
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	86
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	86
Darin Gillies R 2018 · 4.81 FIP	25	SU	4.81	22.2%	10.2%	4.2%	.294	4.83	23.2%	12.8%	106	+0.02	4.22	295	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	62	20.9%	9.5%	1.23	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43