Luis Carrasco — OGILVIE

Luis Carrasco P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%16.1%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Gold	6	4	14	66	12	4	0	67%	2.4	12.4%	7.6%	4.8%	0.0%	6.91	3.02	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics Gold	6	4	14	66	12	4	0	67%	2.4	18.2%	6.1%	12.1%	0.0%	6.91	2.26	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	6	44	197	44	10	3	35%	2.6	15.5%	6.2%	9.3%	2.0%	4.06	3.67	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	6	44	197	44	10	3	35%	2.6	22.3%	5.1%	17.3%	1.5%	4.06	2.67	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	2	26	112	20	8	2	22%	2.9	12.2%	10.0%	2.2%	2.9%	2.42	4.95	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	2	26	112	20	8	2	22%	2.9	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	1.8%	2.42	3.48	—
2023	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	17	15	79	356	73	23	4	88%	4.6	15.2%	7.6%	7.6%	1.5%	4.81	3.63	—
2023	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	17	15	79	356	73	23	4	88%	4.6	15.2%	7.6%	7.6%	1.5%	4.81	3.63	—
2023	21	A RAW	Stockton Ports	17	15	79	356	73	23	4	88%	4.6	20.5%	6.5%	14.0%	1.1%	4.81	2.78	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	19	7	63	277	43	31	8	37%	3.3	12.0%	12.9%	-0.9%	4.2%	5.14	6.01	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	19	7	63	277	43	31	8	37%	3.3	12.0%	12.9%	-0.9%	4.2%	5.14	6.01	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	19	7	63	277	43	31	8	37%	3.3	15.5%	11.2%	4.3%	2.9%	5.14	4.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	37	0	43	203	33	20	4	0%	1.2	12.5%	11.3%	1.2%	2.5%	5.61	4.83	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	37	0	43	203	33	20	4	0%	1.2	12.5%	11.3%	1.2%	2.5%	5.61	4.83	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	OAK	37	0	43	203	33	20	4	0%	1.2	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	2.0%	5.61	4.06	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	55	0	57	242	44	25	7	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.2%	7.8%	3.1%	5.00	4.93	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	55	0	57	242	46	24	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	3.1%	4.88	4.82	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	24	0	25	106	19	11	3	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.2%	7.8%	3.1%	5.00	4.93	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	36	0	38	160	31	16	5	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	3.1%	4.88	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	265	49	27	8	0%	1.0	18.6%	10.1%	8.5%	3.1%	4.93	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	86	25	0%	1.1	18.6%	10.1%	8.5%	3.1%	4.93	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		105	34	270	1211	165	114	29	32%	2.6	13.6%	9.4%	4.2%	2.4%	4.77	4.47	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	25	200	898	122	85	22	32%	2.6	13.6%	9.4%	4.2%	2.4%	4.77	4.47	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Carrasco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	16.1%	10.9%	3.1%	—	4.88	18.5%	8.4%	115	-0.32	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	90
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	86
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	85
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	85
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	83
Adam Leverett R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	24	SW	4.09	15.4%	10.8%	1.7%	.309	5.03	15.1%	7.4%	186	+0.94	3.41	401	83
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	83
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	82
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	82
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	82
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	82
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	82
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	82
Jake Elliott R 2019 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	14.7%	10.6%	2.8%	.262	4.90	19.1%	9.5%	115	+0.17	2.91	354	82
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	82
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	82
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	82
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	82
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	17.8%	10.4%	1.18	5.01
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38