Luis Carrasco
P
Lansing Lugnuts
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.69
FIP4.69
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.7%
IP67
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | AZL Athletics Gold | 6 | 4 | 14 | 66 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 12.4% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 6.91 | 3.02 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Stockton Ports | 17 | 6 | 44 | 197 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 15.5% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 4.06 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | 9 | 2 | 26 | 112 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 12.2% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 2.42 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | 17 | 15 | 79 | 356 | 73 | 23 | 4 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 4.81 | 3.64 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 19 | 7 | 63 | 277 | 43 | 31 | 8 | 12.0% | 12.9% | 4.2% | 5.14 | 6.05 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 58 | 28 | 9 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 70 | 294 | 59 | 29 | 9 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 61 | 27 | 9 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 62 | 27 | 9 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 62 | 27 | 9 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 61 | 26 | 9 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 59 | 26 | 9 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 45 | 23 | 8 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 42 | 22 | 8 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 38 | 21 | 7 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 34 | 229 | 1020 | 141 | 92 | 25 | 13.8% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.56 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 30 | 200 | 891 | 123 | 80 | 22 | 13.8% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.56 | 4.43 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Carrasco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.53 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 203 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 97 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 94 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 93 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 92 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 92 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .332 | 5.16 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.20 | 3.96 | 148 | 91 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 90 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 90 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .353 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.72 | 4.04 | 106 | 89 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 89 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 89 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 89 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 89 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 89 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 89 |
| Tyler Joyner R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .250 | 6.54 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 37 | +2.83 | 3.71 | 114 | 89 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 88 |
| Mick VanVossen R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.17 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 141 | 88 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 17.8% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .295 | 3.25 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 190 | -1.00 | 2.79 | 280 | 88 |
| Landon Beck R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.26 | 17.4% | 8.7% | 63 | +0.34 | 3.52 | 186 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $5M | -$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.