Francis Rivera
P
Spokane Indians
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 160 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
K%21.8%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 29 | 0 | 33 | 156 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 0.9% | 3.55 | 3.39 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 29 | 0 | 33 | 156 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 6.4% | 14.7% | 0.6% | 3.55 | 2.40 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 23 | 0 | 24 | 110 | 35 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 4.94 | 3.00 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 23 | 0 | 24 | 110 | 35 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.8% | 10.9% | 20.9% | 0.0% | 4.94 | 1.66 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 166 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 1.0% | 3.47 | 3.30 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 166 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.7% | 6.0% | 15.7% | 0.6% | 3.47 | 2.30 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 8 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 25% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 8.22 | 2.78 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 8 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 25% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 8.22 | 2.71 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 35 | 0 | 39 | 172 | 38 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.31 | 5.82 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 35 | 0 | 39 | 172 | 38 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 4.1% | 5.31 | 4.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 22 | 0 | 38 | 161 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.7 | 15.8% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 4.54 | 6.38 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.8% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.65 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 61 | 259 | 54 | 27 | 10 | — | — | 21.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 4.58 | 5.72 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.8% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.22 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 79 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 148 | 2 | 177 | 804 | 135 | 84 | 21 | 1% | 1.2 | 16.8% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.41 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 2 | 200 | 907 | 152 | 95 | 23 | 1% | 1.2 | 16.8% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Francis Rivera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 3.3% | — | 4.60 | 22.1% | 12.6% | 23 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 88 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 88 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 87 |
| Kelly Austin R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.58 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 119 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 86 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 86 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 85 |
| Carter Rustad R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 85 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 85 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 85 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 84 |
| Gavin Hollowell R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.35 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .273 | 3.78 | 28.1% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.57 | 2.30 | 208 | 84 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 84 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.31 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 145 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 84 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.5% | .313 | 3.38 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.88 | 312 | 84 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.34 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.64 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.30 | 3.75 | 299 | 84 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 83 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 22.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.66 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 139 | +0.40 | 3.45 | 289 | 83 |