Francis Rivera — OGILVIE

Francis Rivera P Spokane Indians

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 160 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%19.1%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	29	0	33	156	33	10	1	0%	1.1	14.4%	8.0%	6.4%	0.9%	3.55	3.39	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	29	0	33	156	33	10	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.4%	14.7%	0.6%	3.55	2.40	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	23	0	24	110	35	12	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	0.0%	4.94	3.00	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	23	0	24	110	35	12	0	0%	1.0	31.8%	10.9%	20.9%	0.0%	4.94	1.66	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	36	166	36	10	1	0%	1.2	15.2%	7.4%	7.9%	0.9%	3.47	3.25	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	36	166	36	10	1	0%	1.2	21.7%	6.0%	15.7%	0.6%	3.47	2.30	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	8	2	8	39	9	5	0	25%	1.0	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	0.0%	8.22	2.78	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	8	2	8	39	9	5	0	25%	1.0	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	0.0%	8.22	2.78	—
2024	23	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	8	2	8	39	9	5	0	25%	1.0	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	0.0%	8.22	2.71	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	35	0	39	172	38	16	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.7%	6.3%	5.1%	5.31	5.81	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	35	0	39	172	38	16	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.7%	6.3%	5.1%	5.31	5.81	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	35	0	39	172	38	16	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.3%	12.8%	4.1%	5.31	4.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	28	0	51	215	44	24	8	0%	1.8	15.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.7%	4.03	5.95	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	28	0	51	215	44	24	8	0%	1.8	15.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.7%	4.03	5.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	COL	28	0	51	215	44	24	8	0%	1.8	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.7%	4.03	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	COL	48	0	50	212	42	22	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.88	4.86	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	47	0	50	209	42	21	7	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	3.3%	4.85	4.86	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	COL	21	0	22	93	19	9	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.88	4.86	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	30	0	31	131	26	13	4	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	3.3%	4.85	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	223	45	23	7	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.2%	9.9%	3.3%	4.86	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	87	27	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.2%	9.9%	3.3%	4.86	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		154	2	191	858	144	91	22	1%	1.2	16.7%	10.6%	6.2%	2.5%	4.38	4.41	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	2	200	898	150	95	23	1%	1.2	16.7%	10.6%	6.2%	2.5%	4.38	4.41	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francis Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	19.1%	10.4%	3.3%	—	4.86	20.1%	9.9%	100	-0.12	—	—	—
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	87
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	86
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	86
Luis De La O R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.0%	9.4%	2.8%	.370	3.72	15.3%	10.8%	81	-0.65	3.25	145	86
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.19 FIP	25	SU	5.19	18.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.59	16.6%	9.3%	85	-1.60	3.20	213	84
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	84
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	84
Nick Richmond R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	17.6%	10.8%	2.1%	.323	4.54	15.7%	2.7%	60	+0.43	3.11	133	84
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	83
Mario Morales R 2019 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	18.4%	8.6%	3.5%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	108	83
Gavin Hollowell R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	21.2%	10.1%	3.6%	.273	3.91	25.3%	12.6%	98	-0.64	2.41	226	83
Jason Ruffcorn R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	17.8%	10.7%	1.9%	.315	4.20	18.5%	8.7%	173	+0.18	4.01	280	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	19.9%	10.2%	1.26	4.89
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19