Gabriel Barbosa — OGILVIE

Gabriel Barbosa P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%13.5%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%2.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	16	4	34	152	23	10	2	25%	2.1	10.3%	8.2%	2.1%	1.8%	4.28	4.28	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	16	4	34	152	23	10	2	25%	2.1	15.1%	6.6%	8.6%	1.3%	4.28	3.40	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	13	9	45	171	37	4	2	69%	3.5	14.7%	2.9%	11.8%	1.4%	2.20	3.02	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	13	9	45	171	37	4	2	69%	3.5	21.6%	2.3%	19.3%	1.2%	2.20	2.30	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	44	181	41	4	3	50%	3.7	16.4%	3.2%	13.2%	2.9%	3.68	3.71	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	44	181	41	4	3	50%	3.7	22.7%	2.2%	20.4%	1.7%	3.68	2.40	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	22	13	94	419	82	19	5	59%	4.3	14.5%	5.4%	9.1%	1.3%	5.44	3.27	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	22	13	94	419	82	19	5	59%	4.3	14.5%	5.4%	9.1%	1.3%	5.44	3.27	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	22	13	94	419	82	19	5	59%	4.3	19.6%	4.5%	15.0%	1.2%	5.44	2.65	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	24	20	120	518	128	38	13	83%	5.0	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	3.3%	5.09	4.48	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	24	20	120	518	128	38	13	83%	5.0	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	3.3%	5.09	4.48	—
2024	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	24	20	120	518	128	38	13	83%	5.0	24.7%	7.3%	17.4%	2.5%	5.09	3.32	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	8	87	371	69	29	6	24%	2.6	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	1.9%	3.62	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	8	87	371	69	29	6	24%	2.6	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	1.9%	3.62	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	8	87	371	69	29	6	24%	2.6	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	1.6%	3.62	3.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	18	4	42	186	45	12	10	22%	2.3	20.1%	6.2%	13.9%	6.7%	5.57	5.87	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	18	4	42	186	45	12	10	22%	2.3	20.1%	6.2%	13.9%	6.7%	5.57	5.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	PHI	9	0	15	63	21	3	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	4.8%	28.6%	0.0%	2.35	0.89	—
2026	24	AA RAW	PHI	7	4	21	98	20	6	9	57%	3.0	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	9.2%	7.59	7.19	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	PHI	2	0	5	25	4	3	1	0%	2.6	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	4.0%	6.75	5.46	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PHI	5	0	6	24	3	3	1	0%	1.2	13.5%	10.8%	2.7%	2.7%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	48	210	48	15	11	—	—	23.0%	7.0%	16.0%	5.1%	5.53	5.79	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PHI	104	0	110	463	71	48	13	0%	1.1	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.8%	5.05	5.00	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	104	0	110	463	76	47	13	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	2.8%	4.93	4.89	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	103	0	108	456	76	46	13	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.0%	6.7%	2.8%	4.90	4.90	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	PHI	100	0	105	443	74	45	13	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.1%	6.6%	2.9%	4.93	4.97	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	PHI	95	0	100	423	70	44	13	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.4%	6.1%	3.1%	5.03	5.10	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	PHI	90	0	94	398	64	42	13	0%	1.0	16.1%	10.7%	5.5%	3.3%	5.18	5.27	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	PHI	46	0	48	203	31	21	6	0%	1.0	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.8%	5.05	5.00	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	70	0	73	308	51	31	9	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	2.8%	4.93	4.89	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	80	0	84	355	59	36	10	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.0%	6.7%	2.8%	4.90	4.90	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	PHI	84	0	88	372	62	38	11	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.1%	6.6%	2.9%	4.93	4.97	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	PHI	84	0	88	372	61	38	11	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.4%	6.1%	3.1%	5.03	5.10	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	PHI	81	0	85	359	58	38	12	0%	1.0	16.1%	10.7%	5.5%	3.3%	5.18	5.27	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		444	0	466	1970	323	202	58	0%	1.1	16.4%	10.3%	6.1%	3.0%	5.00	4.65	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	138	87	25	0%	1.1	16.4%	10.3%	6.1%	3.0%	5.00	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		138	64	466	1998	316	136	53	46%	3.4	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	2.6%	4.46	4.08	-3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	27	200	857	136	58	23	46%	3.4	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	2.6%	4.46	4.08	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Barbosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	13.5%	10.8%	2.7%	—	4.93	16.2%	6.0%	328	-0.28	—	—	—
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	88
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	87
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	86
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	86
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	85
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	84
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	83
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	83
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	83
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	83
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	83
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	82
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	82
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	82
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	82
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	81
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	99	16.0%	10.3%	1.13	5.02
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10