Gabriel Barbosa — OGILVIE

Gabriel Barbosa P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

+0.4 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.3 · 2028

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.5%

IP98

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2028

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Rockies	16	4	34	152	23	10	2	10.3%	8.2%	1.8%	4.28	4.28	+0.3
2021	19	ROK	DSL Colorado	13	9	45	171	37	4	2	14.7%	2.9%	1.3%	2.20	2.96	+1.0
2022	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	12	6	44	181	41	4	3	16.4%	3.2%	3.1%	3.68	3.83	+0.6
2023	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	22	13	94	419	82	19	5	14.5%	5.4%	1.3%	5.44	3.26	+2.1
2024	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	24	20	120	518	128	38	13	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	5.09	4.49	+1.1
2025	23	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	33	8	87	371	69	29	6	14.2%	9.0%	1.9%	3.62	4.09	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	2	0	5	20	7	0	0	—	—	—	1.80	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	PHI	18	18	98	413	79	36	11	19.2%	8.6%	2.7%	4.46	4.46	+0.9
2026 Total	24	MLB	PHI	—	—	103	433	86	36	11	19.9%	8.3%	2.6%	4.33	4.24	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	PHI	20	20	111	468	94	39	13	20.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.39	4.36	+1.2
2028	26	MLB	PHI	21	21	118	498	102	41	14	20.6%	8.3%	2.8%	4.35	4.32	+1.3
2029	27	MLB	PHI	22	22	121	511	106	43	14	20.7%	8.3%	2.8%	4.33	4.33	+1.3
2030	28	MLB	PHI	22	22	121	512	106	43	15	20.7%	8.3%	2.8%	4.34	4.35	+1.3
2031	29	MLB	PHI	22	22	118	500	103	42	14	20.5%	8.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.40	+1.2
2032	30	MLB	PHI	21	21	115	485	99	41	14	20.3%	8.5%	2.9%	4.42	4.46	+1.1
2033	31	MLB	PHI	20	20	111	468	94	41	14	20.1%	8.7%	3.0%	4.49	4.53	+1.0
2034	32	MLB	PHI	19	19	106	450	89	40	14	19.8%	8.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.62	+0.8
2035	33	MLB	PHI	18	18	102	429	84	39	14	19.5%	9.0%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+0.7
2036	34	MLB	PHI	18	18	97	408	78	37	13	19.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.76	4.83	+0.5
2037	35	MLB	PHI	17	17	91	384	72	36	13	18.8%	9.4%	3.4%	4.87	4.95	+0.3
2038	36	MLB	PHI	15	15	85	359	66	35	13	18.4%	9.7%	3.5%	5.00	5.08	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			122	60	429	1832	286	124	41	15.6%	6.8%	2.2%	4.32	3.86	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—			57	28	200	853	133	58	19	15.6%	6.8%	2.2%	4.32	3.86	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Barbosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	19.2%	8.6%	2.7%	—	4.34	20.5%	12.1%	350	-0.12	—	—	—
Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	16.2%	10.3%	3.0%	.290	4.81	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.10	4.71	160	95
Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP-	4.09	16.6%	10.0%	2.0%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.30	4.09	171	94
Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	93
Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	92
Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	92
Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	3.86	20.2%	11.2%	203	-0.22	3.77	295	92
Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP-	4.63	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.25	4.25	279	92
Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	16.3%	8.9%	2.8%	.277	3.52	21.8%	12.7%	44	-0.88	3.52	128	92
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP-	4.58	19.0%	12.2%	2.8%	.296	5.08	18.4%	6.8%	57	+0.50	4.27	238	91
Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP	25	SP-	5.09	15.2%	10.8%	3.5%	.274	4.93	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.16	4.10	218	91
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	90
Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	24	SP-	4.80	15.0%	8.6%	3.4%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.80	106	90
Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	24	SP-	4.52	18.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.271	5.93	20.6%	7.6%	119	+1.41	4.52	358	90
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	90
Corey Baker R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	17.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.295	5.02	15.5%	7.3%	170	+1.25	3.08	267	90
Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.65	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.35	269	89
Erich Uelmen R 2025 · 4.63 FIP	23	SP-	4.63	15.3%	10.7%	2.7%	.299	4.56	19.8%	8.8%	159	-0.07	3.48	383	89
Jason Savacool R 2025 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	16.6%	11.6%	2.1%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	199	89
Trenton Toplikar R 2025 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	14.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.248	5.40	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.09	4.31	232	89
Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	14.5%	12.2%	3.4%	.266	4.02	16.6%	3.9%	169	-1.25	3.56	269	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.1	$11M	+$10M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.7	$4M	+$3M
Totals		$6M		$51M	+$45M