Teofilo Mendez — OGILVIE

Teofilo Mendez P Visalia Rawhide

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%22.1%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	21	0	26	109	22	10	1	0%	1.3	13.7%	11.5%	2.3%	1.4%	1.71	4.18	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Black	21	0	26	109	22	10	1	0%	1.3	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	0.9%	1.71	3.06	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	21	0	36	143	50	9	4	0%	1.7	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	4.3%	2.25	4.43	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	21	0	36	143	50	9	4	0%	1.7	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	4.3%	2.25	4.43	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	21	0	36	143	50	9	4	0%	1.7	35.0%	6.3%	28.7%	2.8%	2.25	2.52	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	51	221	57	21	3	0%	1.8	20.1%	10.7%	9.4%	0.6%	2.45	3.10	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	51	221	57	21	3	0%	1.8	20.1%	10.7%	9.4%	0.6%	2.45	3.10	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	51	221	57	21	3	0%	1.8	25.8%	9.5%	16.3%	1.4%	2.45	2.87	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	3	0	4	18	2	2	0	0%	1.2	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.82	3.57	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	3	0	4	18	2	2	0	0%	1.2	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.82	3.57	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	3	0	4	18	2	2	0	0%	1.2	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	9.82	3.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	35	0	60	278	68	17	14	0%	1.7	18.2%	7.1%	11.1%	6.5%	7.31	6.02	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	35	0	60	278	68	17	14	0%	1.7	18.2%	7.1%	11.1%	6.5%	7.31	6.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	ARI	27	0	50	216	57	10	10	0%	1.9	26.4%	4.6%	21.8%	4.6%	5.94	4.00	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	ARI	8	0	10	62	11	7	4	0%	1.3	17.7%	11.3%	6.5%	6.5%	13.94	6.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	57	0	60	252	57	24	7	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.35	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	57	0	60	252	58	24	7	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.4%	13.5%	2.9%	4.35	4.32	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	56	0	59	249	57	23	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.4%	13.4%	2.9%	4.36	4.36	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	25	0	26	110	25	10	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	2.7%	4.29	4.26	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	38	0	40	169	39	16	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.4%	13.5%	2.7%	4.26	4.23	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	44	0	46	194	44	18	5	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.4%	13.4%	2.8%	4.27	4.27	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	0	111	467	107	44	13	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.4%	13.4%	2.8%	4.27	3.88	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	79	23	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.4%	13.4%	2.8%	4.27	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		108	0	178	769	146	69	27	0%	1.6	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	3.5%	4.10	4.57	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	0	200	866	164	78	30	0%	1.6	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	3.5%	4.10	4.57	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Teofilo Mendez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	22.1%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.34	22.8%	13.4%	178	-0.11	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	92
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	89
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	89
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	87
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	87
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	86
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	86
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	86
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	86
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	22.7%	9.5%	1.12	4.37
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84