Teofilo Mendez
P
Visalia Rawhide
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
RHP
5'11" / 170 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.7%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL D-backs Black | 21 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 22 | 10 | 1 | 13.7% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 1.71 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 21 | 0 | 36 | 143 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 2.25 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 28 | 0 | 51 | 221 | 57 | 21 | 3 | 20.1% | 10.7% | 0.6% | 2.45 | 3.10 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.82 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 5 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 13 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.36 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 43 | 188 | 48 | 15 | 5 | 25.5% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 3.57 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 0 | 125 | 527 | 108 | 50 | 10 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 2.74 | 3.65 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 173 | 80 | 16 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 2.74 | 3.65 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Teofilo Mendez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.22 | 23.6% | 14.5% | 110 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 92 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 91 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 90 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 90 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 89 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 89 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 89 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 88 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 88 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 88 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .371 | 4.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 128 | +0.14 | 3.89 | 176 | 88 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 87 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 87 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 87 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 87 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 3.68 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 118 | 87 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 87 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $5M | +$1M | ||