Abdiel Medina

P ACL Mariners

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 155 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	ROKSEA	10	4	43	3.95	3.88	15.6%	7.3%	—	K 10.6% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.05
2024	22	ROKSEA	11	0	11	13.91	7.55	16.4%	16.4%	—	K 11.1% · BB 20.5% · FIP 9.13
2027PROJ	25	MLBSEA	6	0	6	4.62	4.62	22.9%	11.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSEA	9	0	9	4.57	4.56	23.2%	10.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJeff Niemann (age 25) · Nathanael Santiago (age 25) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%22.9%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP6

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	15	6	49	214	51	16	2	40%	3.2	16.2%	9.3%	6.9%	1.3%	4.25	3.63	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	15	6	49	214	51	16	2	40%	3.2	23.8%	7.5%	16.4%	0.9%	4.25	2.52	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	3	38	150	37	7	2	30%	3.8	16.8%	5.8%	10.9%	2.1%	3.76	3.56	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	10	3	38	150	37	7	2	30%	3.8	24.7%	4.7%	20.0%	1.3%	3.76	2.40	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	11	7	50	225	44	19	7	64%	4.5	13.3%	10.6%	2.7%	4.2%	5.80	5.63	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	11	7	50	225	44	19	7	64%	4.5	19.6%	8.4%	11.1%	3.1%	5.80	4.31	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	4	43	192	30	14	4	40%	4.3	10.6%	9.1%	1.5%	3.1%	3.95	5.05	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	10	4	43	192	30	14	4	40%	4.3	15.6%	7.3%	8.3%	2.1%	3.95	3.88	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	11	0	11	61	10	10	3	0%	1.0	11.1%	20.5%	-9.3%	8.0%	13.91	9.13	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	11	0	11	61	10	10	3	0%	1.0	11.1%	20.5%	-9.3%	8.0%	13.91	9.13	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	11	0	11	61	10	10	3	0%	1.0	16.4%	16.4%	0.0%	4.9%	13.91	7.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SEA	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SEA	19	0	20	84	20	9	3	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.9%	12.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.56	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	SEA	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.9%	12.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.9%	12.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.18	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.9%	12.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		57	20	191	842	117	82	26	35%	3.4	13.9%	9.8%	4.1%	3.1%	5.04	4.87	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	21	200	882	122	86	27	35%	3.4	13.9%	9.8%	4.1%	3.1%	5.04	4.87	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abdiel Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	22.9%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.56	23.2%	12.2%	20	-0.06	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	85
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	77
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	76
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	75
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	75
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	75
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	75
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	74
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	74
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	73
Sean Douglass R 2004 · 4.94 FIP	25	SW	4.94	20.1%	13.4%	3.4%	.274	4.82	14.7%	6.4%	87	-0.12	4.81	200	73
Ryan Drese R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	25	SW	3.58	16.1%	8.7%	1.3%	.273	4.20	12.8%	5.2%	391	+0.62	3.58	557	72
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	72
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	72
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	72
Trennor O'Donnell R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	23	SW	3.45	18.2%	8.6%	1.5%	.326	6.32	14.2%	0.6%	44	+2.87	3.45	107	72
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	72
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	71
Jose Samayoa R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	26	SW	3.44	16.6%	9.9%	0.9%	.286	3.79	17.3%	9.4%	226	+0.35	3.44	262	71
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	71