Luis Curvelo
P
Texas Rangers
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.98
FIP4.50
xFIP5.90
SIERA5.50
K%22.6%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.7%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5555
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p2922.4%
K%
p5923.8%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
SI (34%)
SL (31%)
FB-0.8 (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 9 | 3 | 31 | 120 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 12.5% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 2.58 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 12 | 0 | 23 | 92 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 23.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 2.31 | 2.45 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 37 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 80 | 18 | 4 | 25.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 3.56 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 37 | 1 | 52 | 228 | 57 | 28 | 9 | 19.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 4.82 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 41 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 60 | 16 | 9 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 3.78 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 49 | 0 | 67 | 255 | 78 | 18 | 5 | 24.8% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 2.56 | 3.62 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 53 | 0 | 60 | 264 | 61 | 28 | 7 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 7 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 5.62 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 26 | — | 26 | 108 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 34 | 143 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 3.52 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 56 | 25 | 8 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 55 | 25 | 8 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 47 | 24 | 8 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 43 | 23 | 8 | 19.6% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 40 | 22 | 8 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 37 | 22 | 7 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.27 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 33 | 21 | 7 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 5.41 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 30 | 20 | 7 | 16.7% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 5.57 | 5.67 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 245 | 4 | 348 | 1450 | 311 | 132 | 45 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 3.49 | 4.15 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 2 | 200 | 833 | 179 | 76 | 26 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 3.49 | 4.15 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Curvelo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | — | 4.71 | 21.7% | 11.8% | 181 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 83 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 83 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 83 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 81 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 81 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 81 |
| Will Vest R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 81 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 81 |
| Joe Harvey R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .183 | 3.92 | 25.0% | 12.7% | 107 | +0.10 | 2.56 | 197 | 81 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.17 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 142 | 80 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 80 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 80 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 80 |
| Jordan Weems R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .333 | 4.56 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 98 | +0.62 | 2.99 | 459 | 80 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.1% | .286 | 3.56 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.13 | 2.48 | 138 | 80 |
| Tayron Guerrero R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 4.95 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 135 | +1.13 | 2.96 | 316 | 79 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.4% | .450 | 4.64 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.12 | 4.02 | 187 | 79 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.