Luis Curvelo — OGILVIE

Luis Curvelo P Round Rock Express

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.15

FIP4.28

K%20.6%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p1011.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.387

SI (20%)

SL (29%)

FB-0.8 (50%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	9	3	31	120	22	4	0	33%	3.4	12.5%	4.2%	8.3%	0.0%	1.17	2.58	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	9	3	31	120	22	4	0	33%	3.4	18.3%	3.3%	15.0%	0.0%	1.17	2.06	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	12	0	23	92	32	3	1	0%	1.9	23.7%	4.1%	19.6%	1.5%	2.31	2.45	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	12	0	23	92	32	3	1	0%	1.9	34.8%	3.3%	31.5%	1.1%	2.31	1.30	—
2021	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	37	0	55	235	80	18	4	0%	1.5	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	2.6%	3.58	3.53	—
2021	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	37	0	55	235	80	18	4	0%	1.5	34.0%	7.7%	26.4%	1.7%	3.58	2.12	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	37	1	52	228	57	28	9	3%	1.4	19.2%	14.1%	5.1%	4.0%	4.82	5.45	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	37	1	52	228	57	28	9	3%	1.4	25.0%	12.3%	12.7%	3.9%	4.82	4.76	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	41	0	52	221	60	16	9	0%	1.3	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	5.0%	3.78	5.15	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	41	0	52	221	60	16	9	0%	1.3	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	5.0%	3.78	5.15	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	41	0	52	221	60	16	9	0%	1.3	27.1%	7.2%	19.9%	4.1%	3.78	3.96	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	49	0	67	255	78	18	5	0%	1.4	24.8%	7.8%	17.0%	2.9%	2.56	3.57	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	49	0	67	255	78	18	5	0%	1.4	24.8%	7.8%	17.0%	2.9%	2.56	3.57	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	49	0	67	255	78	18	5	0%	1.4	30.6%	7.1%	23.5%	2.0%	2.56	2.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	60	264	61	28	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	2.9%	4.37	4.21	+0.2
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	60	264	61	28	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	2.9%	4.37	4.21	+0.2
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	60	264	61	28	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	2.7%	4.37	3.99	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			26	0	29	139	26	14	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	5.0%	7.06	5.86	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	41	0	47	230	43	24	11	0%	1.1	16.0%	9.6%	6.4%	5.0%	7.66	5.69	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	41	0	47	230	43	24	11	0%	1.1	16.0%	9.6%	6.4%	5.0%	7.66	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	TEX	32	0	37	175	37	19	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.9%	10.3%	4.0%	7.12	4.89	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	TEX	9	0	10	55	6	5	4	0%	1.1	10.9%	9.1%	1.8%	7.3%	9.58	7.32	-0.3
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	TEX	9	0	10	55	6	5	4	0%	1.1	10.9%	9.1%	1.8%	7.3%	9.58	7.32	-0.3
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TEX	5	0	6	24	5	2	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.8%	10.7%	3.0%	4.15	4.28	+0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.8%	10.7%	3.0%	4.15	4.28	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	53	254	48	26	12	—	—	18.9%	10.4%	8.5%	4.6%	7.28	5.54	-0.6
FULL	25	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	16	67	48	26	12	—	—	71.1%	39.1%	32.0%	17.4%	24.03	11.60	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	64	0	67	282	58	27	10	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	3.4%	4.79	4.83	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	63	0	66	277	57	27	9	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.83	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	61	0	64	269	56	26	9	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.85	4.89	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	60	0	63	266	54	26	9	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	3.4%	4.79	4.83	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	59	0	62	262	54	25	9	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.83	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	58	0	61	258	53	25	9	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.85	4.89	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		209	0	221	949	193	93	35	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.6%	5.09	4.63	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	858	174	84	32	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.6%	5.09	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		279	4	387	1645	340	149	54	1%	1.4	20.7%	9.0%	11.6%	3.3%	3.95	4.30	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	2	200	849	176	77	28	1%	1.4	20.7%	9.0%	11.6%	3.3%	3.95	4.30	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Curvelo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.6%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.85	20.6%	10.9%	196	+0.29	—	—	—
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	83
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	83
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	82
Luis De La O R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.0%	9.4%	2.8%	.370	3.72	15.3%	10.8%	81	-0.65	3.25	145	82
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	81
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	81
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	81
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	81
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.19 FIP	25	SU	5.19	18.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.59	16.6%	9.3%	85	-1.60	3.20	213	81
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	80
Jordan Weems R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	19.0%	12.0%	1.6%	.333	4.58	22.7%	9.6%	98	+0.68	3.05	473	80
Mario Morales R 2019 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	18.4%	8.6%	3.5%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	108	80
Gavin Hollowell R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	21.2%	10.1%	3.6%	.273	3.91	25.3%	12.6%	98	-0.64	2.41	226	80
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	80
Brad Goldberg R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SU	4.07	18.2%	11.7%	1.9%	.333	3.86	21.4%	7.2%	139	-0.21	3.14	197	80
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	80
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	20.9%	9.8%	1.28	4.72
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43