Luis Curvelo
P
Round Rock Express
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.35
FIP4.54
K%21.0%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p2922.4%
K%
p5923.8%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
SI (34%)
SL (29%)
FB-0.8 (49%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 9 | 3 | 31 | 120 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 3.4 | 12.5% | 4.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 2.58 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 9 | 3 | 31 | 120 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 3.4 | 18.3% | 3.3% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 1.17 | 2.06 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 12 | 0 | 23 | 92 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.7% | 4.1% | 19.6% | 1.5% | 2.31 | 2.45 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 12 | 0 | 23 | 92 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 34.8% | 3.3% | 31.5% | 1.1% | 2.31 | 1.30 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 37 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 80 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.2% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 3.58 | 3.80 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | 37 | 0 | 55 | 235 | 80 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 34.0% | 7.7% | 26.4% | 1.7% | 3.58 | 2.12 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 37 | 1 | 52 | 228 | 57 | 28 | 9 | 3% | 1.4 | 19.2% | 14.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 5.10 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 37 | 1 | 52 | 228 | 57 | 28 | 9 | 3% | 1.4 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.82 | 4.76 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 41 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 60 | 16 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 12.6% | 5.0% | 3.78 | 5.12 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 41 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 60 | 16 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.1% | 7.2% | 19.9% | 4.1% | 3.78 | 3.96 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 49 | 0 | 67 | 255 | 78 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.8% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 3.7% | 2.56 | 4.01 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 49 | 0 | 67 | 255 | 78 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.6% | 7.1% | 23.5% | 2.0% | 2.56 | 2.54 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 60 | 264 | 61 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 60 | 264 | 61 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 26 | 0 | 27 | 135 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 16.8% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 8.00 | 6.29 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 63 | 289 | 55 | 34 | 12 | — | — | 19.2% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.90 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 45 | 189 | 55 | 34 | 12 | — | — | 29.3% | 18.2% | 11.1% | 6.4% | 8.36 | 6.41 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 58 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 63 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 58 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 55 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 55 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 180 | 0 | 190 | 810 | 167 | 81 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.62 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 855 | 176 | 85 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 264 | 4 | 367 | 1550 | 329 | 152 | 51 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 3.77 | 4.36 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 2 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 83 | 28 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 3.77 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Curvelo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.88 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 132 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .342 | 4.48 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.52 | 2.72 | 102 | 83 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 82 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .273 | 2.80 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -1.91 | 2.42 | 302 | 82 |
| Carter Rustad R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 81 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.34 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.64 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.30 | 3.75 | 299 | 81 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.21 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 4.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 152 | 81 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 81 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 134 | 81 |
| Woo-Suk Go R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.88 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .359 | 3.88 | 23.1% | 12.4% | 54 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 107 | 81 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.25 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.53 | 3.19 | 145 | 80 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 2.8% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 321 | 80 |
| Jordan Leasure R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.40 | 18.3% | 12.7% | 4.1% | .283 | 4.79 | 28.5% | 18.1% | 83 | -0.61 | 4.26 | 212 | 80 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.83 | 3.30 | 125 | 80 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.23 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.45 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 141 | +0.22 | 3.97 | 248 | 80 |
| Kelly Austin R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.58 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 119 | 79 |
| Mario Morales R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 108 | 79 |
| Josh Hejka R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.7% | 10.8% | 3.3% | .363 | 4.09 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 77 | -0.78 | 2.94 | 182 | 79 |
| Derrick Edington R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.80 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 5.7% | .288 | 3.70 | 19.1% | 9.6% | 98 | -2.10 | 3.20 | 122 | 79 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.11 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.66 | 11.8% | -2.3% | 55 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 172 | 79 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 1.30 | 4.75 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |